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Life Course Modifiable Risk Factors of Dementia: Replicating the 2024 Lancet Commission Model in a Single Longitudinal Cohort
Victoria J. Williams, Ralph Møller Trane, Kamil Sicinski, Carol Roan, Pamela Herd, Michal Engelman, Sanjay Asthana. Alzheimer s & Dementia, 2025-12-01
Topic: Risk, prevention and care in population studies
Plain-language summary
When risk factors were evaluated independently, we found less early-life education, mid-life hearing loss and diabetes, and late-life social isolation and visual loss associated with increased odds for dementia. Conversely, mid-life hypertension associated with decreased dementia odds. Null effects (p>0.05) were observed for the remaining mid-life (depression, physical inactivity, excessive alcohol, obesity, high cholesterol, smoking) and late-life (social isolation, air pollution) predictors. When replicating the full Lancet model using logistic regression, only the effects of hearing loss, diabetes, and hypertension remained statistically significant. Stratified analysis among APoE-4 carriers found that diabetes increased risk, whereas hypertension reduced risk for dementia. Among ApoE-4 non-carriers, only mid-life hearing loss and diabetes associated with increased dementia odds. Replication of the 2024 Lancet model in a single lifecourse longitudinal cohort revealed only a restricted subset of modifiable risk factors that associated with dementia odds, raising concern for publication bias potentially inflating risk estimates in meta-analytic approaches. History of mid-life hypertension consistently associated with reduced dementia risk, contrary to model predictions. Divergent risk profiles by ApoE-4 status highlight the importance of considering gene-by-environment interactions when formulating dementia risk models.
Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
APA 7th
Williams, V. J., Trane, R. M., Sicinski, K., Roan, C., Herd, P., Engelman, M., et al. (2025). Life Course Modifiable Risk Factors of Dementia: Replicating the 2024 Lancet Commission Model in a Single Longitudinal Cohort. Alzheimer s & Dementia. https://doi.org/10.1002/alz70860_107692
Vancouver
Williams VJ, Trane RM, Sicinski K, Roan C, Herd P, Engelman M, et al. Life Course Modifiable Risk Factors of Dementia: Replicating the 2024 Lancet Commission Model in a Single Longitudinal Cohort. Alzheimer s & Dementia. 2025. doi:10.1002/alz70860_107692. PMID: 41434761.
BibTeX
@article{williams2025-41434761,
author = {Williams, Victoria J. and Trane, Ralph Møller and Sicinski, Kamil and Roan, Carol and Herd, Pamela and Engelman, Michal and Asthana, Sanjay},
title = {{Life Course Modifiable Risk Factors of Dementia: Replicating the 2024 Lancet Commission Model in a Single Longitudinal Cohort}},
journal = {Alzheimer s \& Dementia},
year = {2025},
doi = {10.1002/alz70860_107692},
pmid = {41434761},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/alz70860_107692}
}
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. The record names 7 authors; APA and Vancouver show the first six, BibTeX and the downloads carry all of them. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
Key findings
- When risk factors were evaluated independently, we found less early-life education, mid-life hearing loss and diabetes, and late-life social isolation and visual loss associated with increased odds for dementia.
- Conversely, mid-life hypertension associated with decreased dementia odds.
- Null effects (p>0.05) were observed for the remaining mid-life (depression, physical inactivity, excessive alcohol, obesity, high cholesterol, smoking) and late-life (social isolation, air pollution) predictors.
- When replicating the full Lancet model using logistic regression, only the effects of hearing loss, diabetes, and hypertension remained statistically significant.
- Stratified analysis among APoE-4 carriers found that diabetes increased risk, whereas hypertension reduced risk for dementia.
Why it matters
When replicating the 2024 Lancet Commission model in one cohort, only hearing loss, diabetes and hypertension remained significantly associated with dementia, and mid-life hypertension was linked to reduced risk, contrary to model predictions. Null effects were observed for many other risk factors, raising concern about publication bias in meta-analyses.
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Study details
- Study designcross-sectional
- Participants5,526
- Evidence strengthModerate
How this study scored 50/100
Published in a peer-reviewed journal, and it is a snapshot of people at one point in time. Scored zero for effect reported and randomized / blinded because the record does not state it.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 7 / 10 | Tier 3 — peer-reviewed journal (Alzheimer s & Dementia) |
| Journal's citation record | 2 / 4 | Alzheimer s & Dementia: journal h-index 228 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 4 / 12 | A snapshot of people at one point in time |
| Strength of evidence | 3 / 5 | Rated “moderate” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 4 / 5 | 2025 — within 3 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 3 / 4 | 5,526 participants |
| Effect reported | 0 / 3 | No effect size reported — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Studied in people | 3 / 3 | Studied in people (participant count stated) |
| Randomized / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomization or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | 1 / 7 | Cited 2 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 0 / 5 | 0.7 citations a year over 3 year(s) since 2025 |
| Impact for its field and year | 2 / 6 | Cited 1.3× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 0 / 6 | No other study in this library cites it |
| Still being cited | 0 / 4 | Cited 2 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 4 / 4 | Last-listed author Sanjay Asthana: h-index 101 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 2 / 3 | University of Michigan: institution h-index 2,240 (OpenAlex) |
| Multicenter collaboration | 1 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 3 institution(s) in 1 country |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 41434761) |
| Free to read | 2 / 2 | Free to read |
| Total | 50 / 100 | — |
What each of these 20 components measures, and what this score is not →
Read the original
- DOI: 10.1002/alz70860_107692
- PubMed: 41434761
- Original source →
- Free full text: Alzheimer s & Dementia →
Full text: free to read — OpenAlex lists this copy as free to read: the link above (checked 6 Feb 1020).
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