Home › Research › How common it is
Vascular risk factors, incidence of MCI, and rates of progression to dementia
Solfrizzi V, Panza F, Colacicco AM, D'Introno A, Capurso C, Torres F, Grigoletto F, Maggi S et al.. Neurology, 2004-11-01
Topic: Risk, prevention and care in population studies
Objective To estimate prevalence, incidence, and rate of progression of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to dementia and correlated vascular risk factors with incident MCI and its progression to dementia. Methods The authors evaluated 2,963 individuals from the population-based sample of 5,632 subjects 65 to 84 years old, at the first (1992 to 1993) and second survey (1995 to 1996) of the Italian Longitudinal Study on Aging (ILSA), with a 3.5-year follow-up. Dementia, Alzheimer disease (AD), vascular dementia (VaD), other types of dementia, and MCI were classified using current clinical criteria. Results Among the 2,963 participants, 139 MCI patients were diagnosed at the first ILSA survey. During the 3.5-year follow-up, 113 new events of MCI were diagnosed with an estimated incidence rate of 21.5 per 1,000 person-years. We found a progression rate to dementia (all causes) of 3.8/100 person-years. Specific progression rates for AD, VaD, and other types of dementia were 2.3, 1.3, and 0.3/100 person-years. Furthermore, age was a risk factor for incident MCI (RR: 5.93, 95% CI: 3.17 to 11.10), while education was protective (RR: 0.06, 95% CI: 0.03 to 0.10), and serum total cholesterol evidenced a borderline nonsignificant trend for a protective effect. There was a nonsignificant trend for stroke as a risk factor of progression of MCI to dementia. Conclusions In this population, among those who progressed to dementia, 60% progressed to AD and 33% to VaD. Vascular risk factors influence incident mild cognitive impairment and the rate of progression to dementia.
Key findings
- Results Among the 2,963 participants, 139 MCI patients were diagnosed at the first ILSA survey.
- We found a progression rate to dementia (all causes) of 3.8/100 person-years.
Why it matters
In an Italian population study of 2,963 people aged 65–84 followed for about 3.5 years, new cases of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) appeared at 21.5 per 1,000 person-years. People with MCI progressed to dementia at 3.8 per 100 person-years, and 60% of those who progressed developed Alzheimer's disease and 33% vascular dementia. Older age and lower education were linked to MCI, but the vascular factors in the title showed only nonsignificant trends (cholesterol, stroke), so the study does not show that vascular risk factors cause MCI or that treating them would help.
New to this subject? Start with our plain-English guide: Alzheimer's in numbers →
Study details
- Study designlongitudinal study
- Participants2,963
- Effect sizeRR: 5.93; RR: 0.06
- Evidence strengthModerate
How this study scored 70/100
Published in a leading specialty journal, and it is a longitudinal study following the same people over time. Scored zero for randomised / blinded because the record does not state it.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 9 / 10 | Tier 2 — leading specialty journal (Neurology) |
| Journal's citation record | 4 / 4 | Neurology: journal h-index 525 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 7 / 12 | A longitudinal study following the same people over time |
| Strength of evidence | 3 / 5 | Rated “moderate” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 1 / 5 | 2004 — older than 20 years, still counted |
| Sample size | 3 / 4 | 2,963 participants |
| Effect reported | 3 / 3 | Effect reported with a statistic (interval, p-value, ratio or similar) |
| Studied in people | 3 / 3 | Studied in people (participant count stated) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | 6 / 7 | Cited 530 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 4 / 5 | 22.1 citations a year over 24 year(s) since 2004 |
| Impact for its field and year | 4 / 6 | Cited 16.7× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 4 / 6 | Cited by 47 other studies in this library |
| Still being cited | 2 / 4 | Cited 24 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 2 / 4 | Last-listed author Antonio Capurso: h-index 30 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 1 / 3 | University of Padua: institution h-index 1,158 (OpenAlex) |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 2 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 4 institution(s) in 1 country |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 15557506) |
| Free to read | 0 / 2 | Behind a paywall — scores zero |
| Total | 70 / 100 | — |
What each of these 20 components measures, and what this score is not →
Read the original
May need a subscription OpenAlex found no free copy of the full text (checked 6 Feb 1020), so the publisher may charge for it. The PubMed abstract is free.
Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. The record's author list ends in “et al.”, so not every author is named. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
APA 7th
Solfrizzi, V., Panza, F., Colacicco, A. M., D'Introno, A., Capurso, C., Torres, F., et al. (2004). Vascular risk factors, incidence of MCI, and rates of progression to dementia. Neurology. https://doi.org/10.1212/01.wnl.0000144281.38555.e3
Vancouver
Solfrizzi V, Panza F, Colacicco AM, D'Introno A, Capurso C, Torres F, et al. Vascular risk factors, incidence of MCI, and rates of progression to dementia. Neurology. 2004. doi:10.1212/01.wnl.0000144281.38555.e3. PMID: 15557506.
BibTeX
@article{solfrizzi2004-15557506,
author = {Solfrizzi, V. and Panza, F. and Colacicco, A. M. and D'Introno, A. and Capurso, C. and Torres, F. and Grigoletto, F. and Maggi, S. and others},
title = {{Vascular risk factors, incidence of MCI, and rates of progression to dementia}},
journal = {Neurology},
year = {2004},
doi = {10.1212/01.wnl.0000144281.38555.e3},
pmid = {15557506},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1212/01.wnl.0000144281.38555.e3}
}
Studies this one cites
Referenced by this study and also in the alzhub library, so you can read them here. Showing 12 of 15.
Later studies that cite this one
47 studies in the alzhub library list this one in their references. Showing the 8 highest-scoring.
Related studies in How common it is
Also tagged “biobank”
1,084 studies in the library carry the topic tag “biobank”; these are this study's neighbours in a fixed, alphabetical-by-hash tour of them, not the closest in content. All 1,084 tagged studies.