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Population Attributable Fraction of Modifiable Risk Factors for Dementia in Turkey
Buğra Taygun Gülle, Büşra Tozduman. Dementia, 2025-06-29
Topic: Risk, prevention and care in population studies
Dementia affects approximately 55 million people globally, with modifiable risk factors contributing significantly to its prevalence. While global studies have explored these factors, no research has applied the Lancet Commission's framework to the Turkish population. This study aims to estimate the population attributable fractions (PAFs) of 14 modifiable dementia risk factors in Turkey, using the updated 2024 Lancet Commission framework. Data from the 2022 Turkey Health Survey, a nationally representative dataset, were used to calculate prevalences. The 14 risk factors were categorized into early life (low education), midlife (e.g., physical inactivity, obesity, depression), and later life (e.g., social isolation, air pollution, untreated vision loss). PAFs were computed using relative risks from meta-analyses and the Lancet Commission report. Principal Component Analysis and communalities were applied to account for intercorrelations between factors. The overall weighted PAF for Turkey was 49.9%, indicating that nearly half of dementia cases could be prevented through targeted interventions. Physical inactivity was the leading midlife factor, while social isolation and low education were the most significant contributors in later and early life stages, respectively. Gender-specific analysis revealed higher PAFs in women (54.2%) compared to men (44.3%), driven by differences in physical inactivity, depression, and social isolation. This study highlights the significant preventable burden of dementia in Turkey and underscores the importance of culturally tailored, gender-sensitive interventions. Addressing modifiable risk factors, particularly physical inactivity and social isolation, is critical to reducing dementia prevalence and informing public health strategies.
Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
APA 7th
Gülle, B. T., & Tozduman, B. (2025). Population Attributable Fraction of Modifiable Risk Factors for Dementia in Turkey. Dementia. https://doi.org/10.1177/14713012251357162
Vancouver
Gülle BT, Tozduman B. Population Attributable Fraction of Modifiable Risk Factors for Dementia in Turkey. Dementia. 2025. doi:10.1177/14713012251357162. PMID: 40583126.
BibTeX
@article{gulle2025-40583126,
author = {Gülle, Buğra Taygun and Tozduman, Büşra},
title = {{Population Attributable Fraction of Modifiable Risk Factors for Dementia in Turkey}},
journal = {Dementia},
year = {2025},
doi = {10.1177/14713012251357162},
pmid = {40583126},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/14713012251357162}
}
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Key findings
- Dementia affects approximately 55 million people globally, with modifiable risk factors contributing significantly to its prevalence.
- The overall weighted PAF for Turkey was 49.9%, indicating that nearly half of dementia cases could be prevented through targeted interventions.
- Physical inactivity was the leading midlife factor, while social isolation and low education were the most significant contributors in later and early life stages, respectively.
- Gender-specific analysis revealed higher PAFs in women (54.2%) compared to men (44.3%), driven by differences in physical inactivity, depression, and social isolation.
- This study highlights the significant preventable burden of dementia in Turkey and underscores the importance of culturally tailored, gender-sensitive interventions.
Why it matters
This analysis estimated that nearly half of dementia cases in Turkey could be prevented through targeting modifiable risk factors, with physical inactivity, social isolation, and low education being the largest contributors. Prevention efforts may need to focus more on women, who had a higher preventable fraction than men.
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Study details
- Study designmeta-analysis
- Effect size49.9%; 54.2%; 44.3%
- Evidence strengthHigh
How this study scored 46/100
Published in a peer-reviewed journal, and it is a meta-analysis pooling many studies. Scored zero for sample size and studied in people because the record does not state it.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 7 / 10 | Tier 3 — peer-reviewed journal (Dementia) |
| Journal's citation record | 1 / 4 | Dementia: journal h-index 92 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 12 / 12 | A meta-analysis pooling many studies |
| Strength of evidence | 5 / 5 | Rated “high” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 4 / 5 | 2025 — within 3 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 0 / 4 | Participant count not stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Effect reported | 2 / 3 | Effect reported as a number, without an interval or test |
| Studied in people | 0 / 3 | Not stated whether this was studied in people — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | A review of other studies — randomisation is not credited here |
| Times cited | 1 / 7 | Cited 1 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 0 / 5 | 0.3 citations a year over 3 year(s) since 2025 |
| Impact for its field and year | 1 / 6 | Cited 0.6× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 0 / 6 | No other study in this library cites it |
| Still being cited | 0 / 4 | Cited 1 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 1 / 4 | Last-listed author Büşra Tozduman: h-index 5 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 0 / 3 | Dokuz Eylül University: institution h-index 271 (OpenAlex) |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 0 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 1 institution(s) in 1 country — scores zero (affiliation lists can be incomplete) |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 40583126) |
| Free to read | 0 / 2 | Behind a paywall — scores zero |
| Total | 46 / 100 | — |
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