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Is dementia incidence declining?: Trends in dementia incidence since 1990 in the Rotterdam Study
Schrijvers EM, Verhaaren BF, Koudstaal PJ, Hofman A, Ikram MA, Breteler MM.. Neurology, 2012-05-02
Topic: Risk, prevention and care in population studies
Objective To investigate whether dementia incidence has changed over the last 2 decades. Methods We compared dementia incidence in 2 independent subcohorts of persons aged 60-90 years from the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort study. The first subcohort started in 1990 (n = 5,727), the second in 2000 (n = 1,769). Participants were dementia-free at baseline and followed for at maximum 5 years. We calculated age-adjusted dementia incidence rates for the 2 subcohorts in total, in 10-year age strata, and for men and women separately. We also compared mortality rates, differences in prevalence of vascular risk factors, and medication use. Finally, we compared brain volumes and the extent of cerebral small vessel disease in participants who underwent brain imaging 5 years after the baseline examinations. Results In the 1990 subcohort (25,696 person-years), 286 persons developed dementia, and in the 2000 subcohort (8,384 person-years), 49 persons. Age-adjusted dementia incidence rates were consistently, yet nonsignificantly, lower in the 2000 subcohort in all strata, reaching borderline significance in the overall analysis (incidence rate ratio 0.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.56-1.02). Mortality rates were also lower in the 2000 subcohort (rate ratio 0.63, 95% CI 0.52-0.77). The prevalence of hypertension and obesity significantly increased between 1990 and 2000. This was paralleled by a strong increase in use of antithrombotics and lipid-lowering drugs. Participants in 2005-2006 had larger total brain volumes (p Conclusions Although the differences in dementia incidence were nonsignificant, our study suggests that dementia incidence has decreased between 1990 and 2005.
Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
APA 7th
Schrijvers, E. M., Verhaaren, B. F., Koudstaal, P. J., Hofman, A., Ikram, M. A., & Breteler, M. M. (2012). Is dementia incidence declining?: Trends in dementia incidence since 1990 in the Rotterdam Study. Neurology. https://doi.org/10.1212/wnl.0b013e3182553be6
Vancouver
Schrijvers EM, Verhaaren BF, Koudstaal PJ, Hofman A, Ikram MA, Breteler MM. Is dementia incidence declining?: Trends in dementia incidence since 1990 in the Rotterdam Study. Neurology. 2012. doi:10.1212/wnl.0b013e3182553be6. PMID: 22551732.
BibTeX
@article{schrijvers2012-22551732,
author = {Schrijvers, E. M. and Verhaaren, B. F. and Koudstaal, P. J. and Hofman, A. and Ikram, M. A. and Breteler, M. M.},
title = {{Is dementia incidence declining?: Trends in dementia incidence since 1990 in the Rotterdam Study}},
journal = {Neurology},
year = {2012},
doi = {10.1212/wnl.0b013e3182553be6},
pmid = {22551732},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1212/wnl.0b013e3182553be6}
}
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Key findings
- Results In the 1990 subcohort (25,696 person-years), 286 persons developed dementia, and in the 2000 subcohort (8,384 person-years), 49 persons.
- Age-adjusted dementia incidence rates were consistently, yet nonsignificantly, lower in the 2000 subcohort in all strata, reaching borderline significance in the overall analysis (incidence rate ratio 0.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.56-1.02).
- The prevalence of hypertension and obesity significantly increased between 1990 and 2000.
- Participants in 2005-2006 had larger total brain volumes (p Conclusions Although the differences in dementia incidence were nonsignificant, our study suggests that dementia incidence has decreased between 1990 and 2005.
Why it matters
Comparing two periods, dementia incidence was lower in the later group but the difference was not statistically significant. The study does not show that dementia incidence is declining or provide a treatment or prevention.
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Study details
- Study designcohort study
- Participants5,727
- Evidence strengthModerate
How this study scored 69/100
Published in a leading specialty journal, and it is a cohort study following people over time. Scored zero for effect reported and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 9 / 10 | Tier 2 — leading specialty journal (Neurology) |
| Journal's citation record | 4 / 4 | Neurology: journal h-index 525 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 7 / 12 | A cohort study following people over time |
| Strength of evidence | 3 / 5 | Rated “moderate” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 1 / 5 | 2012 — within 20 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 3 / 4 | 5,727 participants |
| Effect reported | 0 / 3 | No effect size reported — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Studied in people | 3 / 3 | Studied in people (participant count stated) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | 6 / 7 | Cited 408 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 4 / 5 | 25.5 citations a year over 16 year(s) since 2012 |
| Impact for its field and year | 5 / 6 | Cited 23.4× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 4 / 6 | Cited by 68 other studies in this library |
| Still being cited | 2 / 4 | Cited 34 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 4 / 4 | Last-listed author Monique M.B. Breteler: h-index 162 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 1 / 3 | Erasmus MC: institution h-index 1,321 (OpenAlex) |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 1 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 2 institution(s) in 2 countries |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 22551732) |
| Free to read | 0 / 2 | Behind a paywall — scores zero |
| Total | 69 / 100 | — |
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