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Incidence trends and age-period-cohort analysis of Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias in the world and China from 1990 to 2021: analyses based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
X. K. Zhang, Haisong Lu, Jun Xiong. Frontiers in Neurology, 2025-07-04
Topic: Amyloid, tau and blood-test diagnosis
From 1990 to 2021, the incidence, prevalence, and DALYs of ADOD have significantly risen both globally and in China, with the growth rates in China notably surpassing the global average. China's age-standardized incidence rate demonstrated an annual percent change of 0.921 (95% UI: 0.817, 1.025), with females (1.107) exhibiting a higher trend compared to males (0.695). The Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) for prevalence reached 5.995 (95% UI: 5.327, 6.664), significantly exceeding the global figure of 0.617. Age-effect analysis indicated that the effect coefficient for the 60-64 age group was 197.30, escalating dramatically to 3698.13 for the 85-89 age group, thus highlighting an exponential increase in risk with advancing age. The period effect peaked at 1.04 during 2018-2021, which is associated with accelerated aging and improvements in diagnostic techniques. In cohort analysis, the risk for individuals born between 1950 and 1954 increased compared to those born between 1895 and 1899. China is confronted with a dual challenge: the escalating burden of ADOD and a rapidly aging population, with female populations disproportionately affected. Urgent, gender-sensitive interventions are essential to enhance early detection, improve long-term care, and address modifiable risk factors. This study emphasizes the necessity for sustained investments in public health infrastructure and research to mitigate the increasing societal and economic impacts of ADOD.
Key findings
- From 1990 to 2021, the incidence, prevalence, and DALYs of ADOD have significantly risen both globally and in China, with the growth rates in China notably surpassing the global average.
- China's age-standardized incidence rate demonstrated an annual percent change of 0.921 (95% UI: 0.817, 1.025), with females (1.107) exhibiting a higher trend compared to males (0.695).
- The Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) for prevalence reached 5.995 (95% UI: 5.327, 6.664), significantly exceeding the global figure of 0.617.
- Age-effect analysis indicated that the effect coefficient for the 60-64 age group was 197.30, escalating dramatically to 3698.13 for the 85-89 age group, thus highlighting an exponential increase in risk with advancing age.
- The period effect peaked at 1.04 during 2018-2021, which is associated with accelerated aging and improvements in diagnostic techniques.
Why it matters
The number of new cases, existing cases, and disability from Alzheimer's disease and other dementias rose significantly from 1990 to 2021, with China's growth outpacing the global average. The risk increased exponentially with age, and women were disproportionately affected.
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Study details
- Evidence strengthModerate
How this study scored 37/100
Published in a peer-reviewed journal. Scored zero for study design, sample size, effect reported, studied in people and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 7 / 10 | Tier 3 — peer-reviewed journal (Frontiers in Neurology) |
| Journal's citation record | 2 / 4 | Frontiers in Neurology: journal h-index 162 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 0 / 12 | No study design recorded — scores zero, not guessed (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Strength of evidence | 3 / 5 | Rated “moderate” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 4 / 5 | 2025 — within 3 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 0 / 4 | Participant count not stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Effect reported | 0 / 3 | No effect size reported — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Studied in people | 0 / 3 | Not stated whether this was studied in people — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | 1 / 7 | Cited 4 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 1 / 5 | 1.3 citations a year over 3 year(s) since 2025 |
| Impact for its field and year | 2 / 6 | Cited 2.5× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 0 / 6 | No other study in this library cites it |
| Still being cited | 1 / 4 | Cited 4 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 2 / 4 | Last-listed author Jun Xiong: h-index 20 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 0 / 3 | Hangzhou Normal University: institution h-index 311 (OpenAlex) |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 0 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 1 institution(s) in 1 country — scores zero (affiliation lists can be incomplete) |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 40689319) |
| Free to read | 2 / 2 | Free to read |
| Total | 37 / 100 | — |
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Read the original
- DOI: 10.3389/fneur.2025.1628577
- PubMed: 40689319
- Original source →
- Free full text: Frontiers in Neurology →
Full text: free to read — OpenAlex lists this copy as free to read: the link above (checked 6 Feb 1020).
Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
APA 7th
Zhang, X. K., Lu, H., & Xiong, J. (2025). Incidence trends and age-period-cohort analysis of Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias in the world and China from 1990 to 2021: analyses based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Frontiers in Neurology. https://doi.org/10.3389/fneur.2025.1628577
Vancouver
Zhang XK, Lu H, Xiong J. Incidence trends and age-period-cohort analysis of Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias in the world and China from 1990 to 2021: analyses based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Frontiers in Neurology. 2025. doi:10.3389/fneur.2025.1628577. PMID: 40689319.
BibTeX
@article{zhang2025-40689319,
author = {Zhang, X. K. and Lu, Haisong and Xiong, Jun},
title = {{Incidence trends and age-period-cohort analysis of Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias in the world and China from 1990 to 2021: analyses based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021}},
journal = {Frontiers in Neurology},
year = {2025},
doi = {10.3389/fneur.2025.1628577},
pmid = {40689319},
url = {https://doi.org/10.3389/fneur.2025.1628577}
}
Studies this one cites
Referenced by this study and also in the alzhub library, so you can read them here.