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Forecasting the global burden of Alzheimer's disease
Ron Brookmeyer, Elizabeth M. Johnson, Kathryn Ziegler‐Graham, Henry Michael Arrighi. Alzheimer s & Dementia, 2007-06-04
Topic: Amyloid, tau and blood-test diagnosis
In 2006, the worldwide prevalence of Alzheimer's disease was 26.6 million. By 2050, the prevalence will quadruple, by which time 1 in 85 persons worldwide will be living with the disease. We estimate about 43% of prevalent cases need a high level of care, equivalent to that of a nursing home. If interventions could delay both disease onset and progression by a modest 1 year, there would be nearly 9.2 million fewer cases of the disease in 2050, with nearly the entire decline attributable to decreases in persons needing a high level of care. We face a looming global epidemic of Alzheimer's disease as the world's population ages. Modest advances in therapeutic and preventive strategies that lead to even small delays in the onset and progression of Alzheimer's disease can significantly reduce the global burden of this disease.
Key findings
- In 2006, the worldwide prevalence of Alzheimer's disease was 26.6 million.
- By 2050, the prevalence will quadruple, by which time 1 in 85 persons worldwide will be living with the disease.
- We estimate about 43% of prevalent cases need a high level of care, equivalent to that of a nursing home.
- If interventions could delay both disease onset and progression by a modest 1 year, there would be nearly 9.2 million fewer cases of the disease in 2050, with nearly the entire decline attributable to decreases in persons needing a high level of care.
- We face a looming global epidemic of Alzheimer's disease as the world's population ages.
Why it matters
This forecast estimates that delaying both the onset and progression of Alzheimer's disease by just 1 year could reduce the number of cases worldwide in 2050 by nearly 9.2 million. It does not test any treatment, but shows the potential global impact of modest delays in the disease.
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Study details
- Participants85
- Evidence strengthLow
How this study scored 59/100
Published in a peer-reviewed journal. Scored zero for study design, effect reported and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 7 / 10 | Tier 3 — peer-reviewed journal (Alzheimer s & Dementia) |
| Journal's citation record | 2 / 4 | Alzheimer s & Dementia: journal h-index 228 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 0 / 12 | No study design recorded — scores zero, not guessed (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Strength of evidence | 1 / 5 | Rated “low” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 1 / 5 | 2007 — within 20 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 1 / 4 | 85 participants |
| Effect reported | 0 / 3 | No effect size reported — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Studied in people | 3 / 3 | Studied in people (participant count stated) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | 7 / 7 | Cited 3,366 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 5 / 5 | 160.3 citations a year over 21 year(s) since 2007 |
| Impact for its field and year | 6 / 6 | Cited 44.5× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 5 / 6 | Cited by 108 other studies in this library |
| Still being cited | 4 / 4 | Cited 350 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 2 / 4 | Last-listed author Henry Michael Arrighi: h-index 33 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 2 / 3 | Johns Hopkins University: institution h-index 2,306 (OpenAlex) |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 1 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 3 institution(s) in 2 countries |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 19595937) |
| Free to read | 0 / 2 | Behind a paywall — scores zero |
| Total | 59 / 100 | — |
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Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
APA 7th
Brookmeyer, R., Johnson, E. M., Ziegler‐Graham, K., & Arrighi, H. M. (2007). Forecasting the global burden of Alzheimer's disease. Alzheimer s & Dementia. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jalz.2007.04.381
Vancouver
Brookmeyer R, Johnson EM, Ziegler‐Graham K, Arrighi HM. Forecasting the global burden of Alzheimer's disease. Alzheimer s & Dementia. 2007. doi:10.1016/j.jalz.2007.04.381. PMID: 19595937.
BibTeX
@article{brookmeyer2007-19595937,
author = {Brookmeyer, Ron and Johnson, Elizabeth M. and Ziegler‐Graham, Kathryn and Arrighi, Henry Michael},
title = {{Forecasting the global burden of Alzheimer's disease}},
journal = {Alzheimer s \& Dementia},
year = {2007},
doi = {10.1016/j.jalz.2007.04.381},
pmid = {19595937},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jalz.2007.04.381}
}
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