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Enhancing the validity of CAIDE dementia risk scores with resting heart rate and machine learning: An analysis from the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center across all races/ethnicities
Shakiru A. Alaka, SoFong Cam Ngan, Mostafa Shookoni, Rebecca E. K. MacPherson, Brent E. Faught, Panagiota Klentrou, Raj N. Kalaria, Christopher Chen et al.. Alzheimer s & Dementia, 2025-08-01
Topic: Risk, prevention and care in population studies
Incorporating RHR into the CAIDE model significantly improved predictive accuracy across Black African, Asian, White, and Native Hawaiian populations (mean AUC range: 0.80-0.91). However, this improvement was not observed in the American Indian population, where the AUC decreased from 0.87 to 0.84. Our findings highlight significant ethnic differences in dementia risk prediction models. These results underscore the need for validating and tailoring dementia risk scores to ensure applicability across diverse races. HIGHLIGHTS: Incorporating resting heart rate (RHR) into the Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging, and Dementia (CAIDE) model significantly improves its predictive accuracy for dementia risk across diverse populations, offering a novel addition to dementia risk models. The application of the machine learning technique enhances dementia risk prediction by capturing complex, non-linear relationships among variables. The improved model enables more precise early identification of individuals at risk of cognitive decline, supporting preventive strategies in dementia care. Resting heart rate, a simple and non-invasive cardiovascular measure, is demonstrated to be a valuable predictor for dementia risk, making it practical for clinical application.
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APA 7th
Alaka, S. A., Ngan, S. C., Shookoni, M., MacPherson, R. E. K., Faught, B. E., Klentrou, P., et al. (2025). Enhancing the validity of CAIDE dementia risk scores with resting heart rate and machine learning: An analysis from the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center across all races/ethnicities. Alzheimer s & Dementia. https://doi.org/10.1002/alz.70442
Vancouver
Alaka SA, Ngan SC, Shookoni M, MacPherson REK, Faught BE, Klentrou P, et al. Enhancing the validity of CAIDE dementia risk scores with resting heart rate and machine learning: An analysis from the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center across all races/ethnicities. Alzheimer s & Dementia. 2025. doi:10.1002/alz.70442. PMID: 40778563.
BibTeX
@article{alaka2025-40778563,
author = {Alaka, Shakiru A. and Ngan, SoFong Cam and Shookoni, Mostafa and MacPherson, Rebecca E. K. and Faught, Brent E. and Klentrou, Panagiota and Kalaria, Raj N. and Chen, Christopher and others},
title = {{Enhancing the validity of CAIDE dementia risk scores with resting heart rate and machine learning: An analysis from the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center across all races/ethnicities}},
journal = {Alzheimer s \& Dementia},
year = {2025},
doi = {10.1002/alz.70442},
pmid = {40778563},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/alz.70442}
}
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. The record's author list ends in “et al.”, so not every author is named. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
Key findings
- Incorporating RHR into the CAIDE model significantly improved predictive accuracy across Black African, Asian, White, and Native Hawaiian populations (mean AUC range: 0.80-0.91).
- However, this improvement was not observed in the American Indian population, where the AUC decreased from 0.87 to 0.84.
- Our findings highlight significant ethnic differences in dementia risk prediction models.
- These results underscore the need for validating and tailoring dementia risk scores to ensure applicability across diverse races.
- HIGHLIGHTS: Incorporating resting heart rate (RHR) into the Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging, and Dementia (CAIDE) model significantly improves its predictive accuracy for dementia risk across diverse populations, offering a novel addition to dementia risk models.
Why it matters
This study found that adding resting heart rate to the CAIDE dementia risk model improved predictive accuracy in several populations, but not in the American Indian population. It addresses risk prediction, not treating, curing, or preventing Alzheimer's disease.
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Study details
- Evidence strengthLow
How this study scored 43/100
Published in a peer-reviewed journal. Scored zero for study design, sample size, effect reported, studied in people and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 7 / 10 | Tier 3 — peer-reviewed journal (Alzheimer s & Dementia) |
| Journal's citation record | 2 / 4 | Alzheimer s & Dementia: journal h-index 228 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 0 / 12 | No study design recorded — scores zero, not guessed (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Strength of evidence | 1 / 5 | Rated “low” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 4 / 5 | 2025 — within 3 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 0 / 4 | Participant count not stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Effect reported | 0 / 3 | No effect size reported — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Studied in people | 0 / 3 | Not stated whether this was studied in people — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | 2 / 7 | Cited 12 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 2 / 5 | 4.0 citations a year over 3 year(s) since 2025 |
| Impact for its field and year | 3 / 6 | Cited 7.6× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 2 / 6 | Cited by 3 other studies in this library |
| Still being cited | 1 / 4 | Cited 12 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 3 / 4 | Last-listed author Siu Kwan Sze: h-index 66 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 1 / 3 | Newcastle University: institution h-index 932 (OpenAlex) |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 1 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 3 institution(s) in 3 countries |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 40778563) |
| Free to read | 2 / 2 | Free to read |
| Total | 43 / 100 | — |
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