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Trends, inequalities, and cross-location similarities in global dementia burden and attributable risk factors across 204 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Jiaying Li, Junxin Li. International Journal of Surgery, 2025-06-20
Topic: Risk, prevention and care in population studies
In 2021, dementia accounted for 56.9 million global cases, 2.0 million deaths, and 36.3 million DALYs. Global age-standardized rates per 100 000 population were: prevalence 694 (95% uncertainty intervals: 602.9-794.1), deaths 25.2 (6.7-64.2), and DALYs 451 (212.7-950.2), with increases of 3.2%, 0.5%, and 1.2% since 1990, respectively. In 2021, East Asia had the highest regional age-standardized prevalence (887.9), led nationally by China (900.8), Lebanon (828.3), and Germany (820.5). Central Sub-Saharan Africa reported the highest regional age-standardized death rates (34.9), particularly in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Gabon (35.4 each) and Congo (34.5). For age-standardized DALYs, Central Sub-Saharan Africa was highest regionally (591.4), led by the Democratic Republic of the Congo (600.2), Gabon (588.3), and Afghanistan (577.7). We identified four regional and six national clusters based on prevalence and DALY trends. Women experienced higher prevalence, deaths, and DALYs across all regions and countries. Globally in 2021, high fasting plasma glucose (FPG) (14.6% of age-standardized dementia DALYs, + 39.5% since 1990, leading in 20 regions and 193 countries, impacting males more), high body-mass index (BMI) (7.1%, + 53.3%, leading in 1 region and 11 countries, impacting females more), and smoking (4.1%, -22.3%, impacting males more) were the main contributors. Across the life course, below the age of 55, high BMI was the main risk for females; below 65, smoking for males; above these ages, high FPG for both sexes. SDI slightly increased DALYs, while UHC significantly reduced them. The global dementia burden has slightly increased but remains substantial, with significant regional and sex disparities. Poor-performing clusters should adopt strategies from better ones. Prevention programs must target modifiable risk factors - high FPG, BMI, and smoking - using sex- and age-specific approaches. Strengthening UHC is essential to alleviate the growing dementia burden.
Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
APA 7th
Li, J., & Li, J. (2025). Trends, inequalities, and cross-location similarities in global dementia burden and attributable risk factors across 204 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. International Journal of Surgery. https://doi.org/10.1097/js9.0000000000002628
Vancouver
Li J, Li J. Trends, inequalities, and cross-location similarities in global dementia burden and attributable risk factors across 204 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. International Journal of Surgery. 2025. doi:10.1097/js9.0000000000002628. PMID: 40540265.
BibTeX
@article{li2025-40540265,
author = {Li, Jiaying and Li, Junxin},
title = {{Trends, inequalities, and cross-location similarities in global dementia burden and attributable risk factors across 204 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021}},
journal = {International Journal of Surgery},
year = {2025},
doi = {10.1097/js9.0000000000002628},
pmid = {40540265},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1097/js9.0000000000002628}
}
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
Key findings
- In 2021, dementia accounted for 56.9 million global cases, 2.0 million deaths, and 36.3 million DALYs.
- Global age-standardized rates per 100 000 population were: prevalence 694 (95% uncertainty intervals: 602.9-794.1), deaths 25.2 (6.7-64.2), and DALYs 451 (212.7-950.2), with increases of 3.2%, 0.5%, and 1.2% since 1990, respectively.
- In 2021, East Asia had the highest regional age-standardized prevalence (887.9), led nationally by China (900.8), Lebanon (828.3), and Germany (820.5).
- Central Sub-Saharan Africa reported the highest regional age-standardized death rates (34.9), particularly in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Gabon (35.4 each) and Congo (34.5).
- For age-standardized DALYs, Central Sub-Saharan Africa was highest regionally (591.4), led by the Democratic Republic of the Congo (600.2), Gabon (588.3), and Afghanistan (577.7).
Why it matters
This analysis shows dementia affected 56.9 million people globally in 2021, with high fasting plasma glucose, high body-mass index, and smoking as the main attributable risk factors. It does not test any treatment or cure, but identifies modifiable risk factors that could inform prevention efforts.
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Study details
- Effect sizeor 56.9; 3.2%; 0.5%
- Evidence strengthLow
How this study scored 43/100
Published in a peer-reviewed journal. Scored zero for study design, sample size, studied in people and randomized / blinded because the record does not state it.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 7 / 10 | Tier 3 — peer-reviewed journal (International Journal of Surgery) |
| Journal's citation record | 1 / 4 | International Journal of Surgery: journal h-index 133 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 0 / 12 | No study design recorded — scores zero, not guessed (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Strength of evidence | 1 / 5 | Rated “low” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 4 / 5 | 2025 — within 3 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 0 / 4 | Participant count not stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Effect reported | 2 / 3 | Effect reported as a number, without an interval or test |
| Studied in people | 0 / 3 | Not stated whether this was studied in people — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Randomized / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomization or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | 2 / 7 | Cited 14 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 2 / 5 | 4.7 citations a year over 3 year(s) since 2025 |
| Impact for its field and year | 4 / 6 | Cited 8.9× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 0 / 6 | No other study in this library cites it |
| Still being cited | 1 / 4 | Cited 14 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 2 / 4 | Last-listed author Junxin Li: h-index 24 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 2 / 3 | Johns Hopkins University: institution h-index 2,306 (OpenAlex) |
| Multicenter collaboration | 1 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 2 institution(s) in 2 countries |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 40540265) |
| Free to read | 2 / 2 | Free to read |
| Total | 43 / 100 | — |
What each of these 20 components measures, and what this score is not →
Read the original
- DOI: 10.1097/js9.0000000000002628
- PubMed: 40540265
- Original source →
- Free full text: International Journal of Surgery →
Full text: free to read — OpenAlex lists this copy as free to read: the link above (checked 6 Feb 1020).
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