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Development and Validation of a Dementia Risk Prediction Model in the General Population: An Analysis of Three Longitudinal Studies
Licher S, Leening MJG, Yilmaz P, Wolters FJ, Heeringa J, Bindels PJE, Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, Vernooij MW et al.. The American journal of psychiatry, 2018-12-11
Topic: Risk, prevention and care in population studies
Objective Identification of individuals at high risk of dementia is essential for development of prevention strategies, but reliable tools are lacking for risk stratification in the population. The authors developed and validated a prediction model to calculate the 10-year absolute risk of developing dementia in an aging population. Methods In a large, prospective population-based cohort, data were collected on demographic, clinical, neuropsychological, genetic, and neuroimaging parameters from 2,710 nondemented individuals age 60 or older, examined between 1995 and 2011.
Key findings
- The authors developed and validated a prediction model to calculate the 10-year absolute risk of developing dementia in an aging population.
- Methods In a large, prospective population-based cohort, data were collected on demographic, clinical, neuropsychological, genetic, and neuroimaging parameters from 2,710 nondemented individuals age 60 or older, examined between 1995 and 2011.
- A basic and an extended model were derived to predict 10-year risk of dementia while taking into account competing risks from death due to other causes.
- Model performance was assessed using optimism-corrected C-statistics and calibration plots, and the models were externally validated in the Dutch population-based Epidemiological Prevention Study of Zoetermeer and in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative cohort 1 (ADNI-1).
Why it matters
This study developed and validated a model to predict the 10-year risk of developing dementia in the general population. It is a risk prediction tool and does not provide a treatment, cure, or prevention for Alzheimer's disease.
Study details
- Participants181
- Evidence strengthModerate
How this study scored 57/100
Published in a peer-reviewed journal. Scored zero for study design, effect reported and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 7 / 10 | Tier 3 — peer-reviewed journal (The American journal of psychiatry) |
| Journal's citation record | 4 / 4 | American Journal of Psychiatry: journal h-index 549 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 0 / 12 | No study design recorded — scores zero, not guessed (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Strength of evidence | 3 / 5 | Rated “moderate” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 2 / 5 | 2019 — within 10 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 2 / 4 | 181 participants |
| Effect reported | 0 / 3 | No effect size reported — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Studied in people | 3 / 3 | Studied in people (participant count stated) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | 5 / 7 | Cited 103 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 3 / 5 | 11.4 citations a year over 9 year(s) since 2019 |
| Impact for its field and year | 3 / 6 | Cited 6.1× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 2 / 6 | Cited by 9 other studies in this library |
| Still being cited | 2 / 4 | Cited 36 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 4 / 4 | Last-listed author M. Arfan Ikram: h-index 167 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 3 / 3 | Harvard University: institution h-index 3,235 (OpenAlex) |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 2 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 4 institution(s) in 2 countries |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 30525906) |
| Free to read | 0 / 2 | Behind a paywall — scores zero |
| Total | 57 / 100 | — |
What each of these 20 components measures, and what this score is not →
Read the original
- DOI: 10.1176/appi.ajp.2018.18050566
- PubMed: 30525906
- Original source →
- Free full text: Repository@Nottingham (University of Nottingham) →
Full text: free to read — OpenAlex lists this copy as free to read: the link above (checked 6 Feb 1020).
Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. The record's author list ends in “et al.”, so not every author is named. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
APA 7th
Licher, S., Leening, M. J. G., Yilmaz, P., Wolters, F. J., Heeringa, J., Bindels, P. J. E., et al. (2019). Development and Validation of a Dementia Risk Prediction Model in the General Population: An Analysis of Three Longitudinal Studies. The American journal of psychiatry. https://doi.org/10.1176/appi.ajp.2018.18050566
Vancouver
Licher S, Leening MJG, Yilmaz P, Wolters FJ, Heeringa J, Bindels PJE, et al. Development and Validation of a Dementia Risk Prediction Model in the General Population: An Analysis of Three Longitudinal Studies. The American journal of psychiatry. 2019. doi:10.1176/appi.ajp.2018.18050566. PMID: 30525906.
BibTeX
@article{licher2019-30525906,
author = {Licher, S. and Leening, M. J. G. and Yilmaz, P. and Wolters, F. J. and Heeringa, J. and Bindels, P. J. E. and {Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative} and Vernooij, M. W. and others},
title = {{Development and Validation of a Dementia Risk Prediction Model in the General Population: An Analysis of Three Longitudinal Studies}},
journal = {The American journal of psychiatry},
year = {2019},
doi = {10.1176/appi.ajp.2018.18050566},
pmid = {30525906},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1176/appi.ajp.2018.18050566}
}
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