Home › Research › Long-term cohort studies
External validation of four dementia prediction models for use in the general community-dwelling population: a comparative analysis from the Rotterdam Study
Licher S, Yilmaz P, Leening MJG, Wolters FJ, Vernooij MW, Stephan BCM, Ikram MK, Ikram MA.. European journal of epidemiology, 2018-05-08
Topic: Risk, prevention and care in population studies
To systematically review the literature for dementia prediction models for use in the general population and externally validate their performance in a head-to-head comparison. We selected four prediction models for validation: CAIDE, BDSI, ANU-ADRI and DRS. From the Rotterdam Study, 6667 non-demented individuals aged 55 years and older were assessed between 1997 and 2001.
Key findings
- We selected four prediction models for validation: CAIDE, BDSI, ANU-ADRI and DRS.
- From the Rotterdam Study, 6667 non-demented individuals aged 55 years and older were assessed between 1997 and 2001.
- Subsequently, participants were followed for dementia until 1 January, 2015.
- For each individual, we computed the risk of dementia using the reported scores from each prediction model.
Why it matters
This analysis externally validated four existing dementia prediction models in people aged 55 and older from the Rotterdam Study. It concerns risk prediction tools, not treating, curing or preventing Alzheimer's disease.
Study details
- Participants867
- Evidence strengthLow
How this study scored 67/100
Published in a peer-reviewed journal, and it is a systematic review of all the studies on the question. Scored zero for effect reported because the record does not state it.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 7 / 10 | Tier 3 — peer-reviewed journal (European journal of epidemiology) |
| Journal's citation record | 2 / 4 | European Journal of Epidemiology: journal h-index 175 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 12 / 12 | A systematic review of all the studies on the question (from PubMed type “Systematic Review”) |
| Strength of evidence | 1 / 5 | Rated “low” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 2 / 5 | 2018 — within 10 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 2 / 4 | 867 participants |
| Effect reported | 0 / 3 | No effect size reported — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Studied in people | 3 / 3 | Studied in people (participant count stated) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | A review of other studies — randomisation is not credited here |
| Times cited | 5 / 7 | Cited 102 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 3 / 5 | 10.2 citations a year over 10 year(s) since 2018 |
| Impact for its field and year | 3 / 6 | Cited 6.4× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 3 / 6 | Cited by 10 other studies in this library |
| Still being cited | 2 / 4 | Cited 44 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 4 / 4 | Last-listed author M. Arfan Ikram: h-index 167 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 3 / 3 | Harvard University: institution h-index 3,235 (OpenAlex) |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 1 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 3 institution(s) in 3 countries |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 29740780) |
| Free to read | 2 / 2 | Free to read |
| Total | 67 / 100 | — |
What each of these 20 components measures, and what this score is not →
Read the original
- DOI: 10.1007/s10654-018-0403-y
- PubMed: 29740780
- Original source →
- Free full text: European Journal of Epidemiology →
Full text: free to read — OpenAlex lists this copy as free to read: the link above (checked 6 Feb 1020).
Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. The record names 8 authors; APA and Vancouver show the first six, BibTeX and the downloads carry all of them. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
APA 7th
Licher, S., Yilmaz, P., Leening, M. J. G., Wolters, F. J., Vernooij, M. W., Stephan, B. C. M., et al. (2018). External validation of four dementia prediction models for use in the general community-dwelling population: a comparative analysis from the Rotterdam Study. European journal of epidemiology. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-018-0403-y
Vancouver
Licher S, Yilmaz P, Leening MJG, Wolters FJ, Vernooij MW, Stephan BCM, et al. External validation of four dementia prediction models for use in the general community-dwelling population: a comparative analysis from the Rotterdam Study. European journal of epidemiology. 2018. doi:10.1007/s10654-018-0403-y. PMID: 29740780.
BibTeX
@article{licher2018-29740780,
author = {Licher, S. and Yilmaz, P. and Leening, M. J. G. and Wolters, F. J. and Vernooij, M. W. and Stephan, B. C. M. and Ikram, M. K. and Ikram, M. A.},
title = {{External validation of four dementia prediction models for use in the general community-dwelling population: a comparative analysis from the Rotterdam Study}},
journal = {European journal of epidemiology},
year = {2018},
doi = {10.1007/s10654-018-0403-y},
pmid = {29740780},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-018-0403-y}
}
Studies this one cites
Referenced by this study and also in the alzhub library, so you can read them here. Showing 12 of 13.
Later studies that cite this one
10 studies in the alzhub library list this one in their references. Showing the 8 highest-scoring.