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Estimating Dementia Risk Using Multifactorial Prediction Models
Kivimäki M, Livingston G, Singh-Manoux A, Mars N, Lindbohm JV, Pentti J, Nyberg ST, Pirinen M et al.. JAMA network open, 2023-06-01
Topic: Risk, prevention and care in population studies
Importance The clinical value of current multifactorial algorithms for individualized assessment of dementia risk remains unclear. Objective To evaluate the clinical value associated with 4 widely used dementia risk scores in estimating 10-year dementia risk. Design, setting, and participants This prospective population-based UK Biobank cohort study assessed 4 dementia risk scores at baseline (2006-2010) and ascertained incident dementia during the following 10 years.
Key findings
- Objective To evaluate the clinical value associated with 4 widely used dementia risk scores in estimating 10-year dementia risk.
- Design, setting, and participants This prospective population-based UK Biobank cohort study assessed 4 dementia risk scores at baseline (2006-2010) and ascertained incident dementia during the following 10 years.
- Replication with a 20-year follow-up was based on the British Whitehall II study.
- For both analyses, participants who had no dementia at baseline, had complete data on at least 1 dementia risk score, and were linked to electronic health records from hospitalizations or mortality were included.
Why it matters
This study evaluated how useful four widely used dementia risk scores are for estimating a person's 10-year risk of developing dementia. The results help clarify whether these tools add value in clinical practice, but they do not prevent or treat dementia.
Study details
- Study designcohort study
- Participants4,865
- Effect size54.3%; 27.6%
- Evidence strengthModerate
How this study scored 69/100
Published in a leading specialty journal, and it is a cohort study following people over time. Scored zero for randomised / blinded because the record does not state it.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 9 / 10 | Tier 2 — leading specialty journal (JAMA network open) |
| Journal's citation record | 2 / 4 | JAMA Network Open: journal h-index 235 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 7 / 12 | A cohort study following people over time |
| Strength of evidence | 3 / 5 | Rated “moderate” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 3 / 5 | 2023 — within 6 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 3 / 4 | 4,865 participants |
| Effect reported | 2 / 3 | Effect reported as a number, without an interval or test |
| Studied in people | 3 / 3 | Studied in people (participant count stated) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | 4 / 7 | Cited 55 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 3 / 5 | 11.0 citations a year over 5 year(s) since 2023 |
| Impact for its field and year | 4 / 6 | Cited 9.9× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 2 / 6 | Cited by 7 other studies in this library |
| Still being cited | 3 / 4 | Cited 52 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 2 / 4 | Last-listed author Pyry N. Sipilä: h-index 25 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 3 / 3 | Broad Institute: institution h-index 2,541 (OpenAlex) |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 2 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 9 institution(s) in 4 countries |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 37310738) |
| Free to read | 2 / 2 | Free to read |
| Total | 69 / 100 | — |
What each of these 20 components measures, and what this score is not →
Read the original
- DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.18132
- PubMed: 37310738
- Original source →
- Free full text: JAMA Network Open →
Full text: free to read — OpenAlex lists this copy as free to read: the link above (checked 6 Feb 1020).
Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. The record's author list ends in “et al.”, so not every author is named. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
APA 7th
Kivimäki, M., Livingston, G., Singh-Manoux, A., Mars, N., Lindbohm, J. V., Pentti, J., et al. (2023). Estimating Dementia Risk Using Multifactorial Prediction Models. JAMA network open. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.18132
Vancouver
Kivimäki M, Livingston G, Singh-Manoux A, Mars N, Lindbohm JV, Pentti J, et al. Estimating Dementia Risk Using Multifactorial Prediction Models. JAMA network open. 2023. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.18132. PMID: 37310738.
BibTeX
@article{kivimaki2023-37310738,
author = {Kivimäki, M. and Livingston, G. and Singh-Manoux, A. and Mars, N. and Lindbohm, J. V. and Pentti, J. and Nyberg, S. T. and Pirinen, M. and others},
title = {{Estimating Dementia Risk Using Multifactorial Prediction Models}},
journal = {JAMA network open},
year = {2023},
doi = {10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.18132},
pmid = {37310738},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.18132}
}
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