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Cardiovascular Risk Trajectories and Risk of Developing Stroke and Dementia
Pei‐Chun Chen, Ta‐Chen Su, Yun-Yu Chen, Yuan‐Teh Lee, Kuo‐Liong Chien. Neurology, 2025-09-30
Topic: Risk, prevention and care in population studies
Among 2,335 participants (mean age 52.3 ± 11.2 years; 56.6% women), CVD risk trajectories over 10 years were classified as accelerated increase (29.2%), moderate increase (30.9%), or stable (39.9%). Over a median 21-year follow-up, an accelerated CVD risk trajectory, compared with the stable group, was associated with an increased risk of developing all stroke (HR 1.81, 95% CI 1.40-2.34), ischemic stroke (HR 1.84, 95% CI 1.37-2.48), hemorrhagic stroke (HR 2.38, 95% CI 1.49-3.80), and vascular dementia (HR 2.07, 95% CI 1.03-4.16). The secondary analysis revealed a positive association between baseline CVD risk and risk of developing stroke, but association with vascular dementia was weaker (baseline CVD risk ≥20% vs <10%: for stroke, HR 2.32, 95% CI 1.61-3.33; for vascular dementia, HR 1.84, 95% CI 0.74-4.56). No association was observed with all-cause or nonvascular dementia. Participants with an accelerated CVD risk had an elevated risk of developing stroke and vascular dementia. Our findings suggested that longitudinal trajectories of CVD risk may affect the risk of vascular dementia beyond individual baseline risks.
Key findings
- Among 2,335 participants (mean age 52.3 ± 11.2 years; 56.6% women), CVD risk trajectories over 10 years were classified as accelerated increase (29.2%), moderate increase (30.9%), or stable (39.9%).
- Over a median 21-year follow-up, an accelerated CVD risk trajectory, compared with the stable group, was associated with an increased risk of developing all stroke (HR 1.81, 95% CI 1.40-2.34), ischemic stroke (HR 1.84, 95% CI 1.37-2.48), hemorrhagic stroke (HR 2.38, 95% CI 1.49-3.80), and vascular dementia (HR 2.07, 95% CI 1.03-4.16).
- The secondary analysis revealed a positive association between baseline CVD risk and risk of developing stroke, but association with vascular dementia was weaker (baseline CVD risk ≥20% vs <10%: for stroke, HR 2.32, 95% CI 1.61-3.33; for vascular dementia, HR 1.84, 95% CI 0.74-4.56).
- No association was observed with all-cause or nonvascular dementia.
- Participants with an accelerated CVD risk had an elevated risk of developing stroke and vascular dementia.
Why it matters
In this cohort, people whose cardiovascular risk factors rose faster over 10 years had a higher chance of later stroke and vascular dementia, but no link was seen with all-cause or nonvascular dementia. This suggests that tracking how cardiovascular risk changes over time, not just a single measurement, may matter for vascular dementia risk.
Study details
- Study designcohort study
- Participants2,335
- Effect size56.6%; 29.2%; 30.9%
- Evidence strengthModerate
How this study scored 56/100
Published in a leading specialty journal, and it is a cohort study following people over time. Scored zero for randomised / blinded because the record does not state it.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 9 / 10 | Tier 2 — leading specialty journal (Neurology) |
| Journal's citation record | 4 / 4 | Neurology: journal h-index 525 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 7 / 12 | A cohort study following people over time |
| Strength of evidence | 3 / 5 | Rated “moderate” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 4 / 5 | 2025 — within 3 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 3 / 4 | 2,335 participants |
| Effect reported | 2 / 3 | Effect reported as a number, without an interval or test |
| Studied in people | 3 / 3 | Studied in people (participant count stated) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | 1 / 7 | Cited 2 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 0 / 5 | 0.7 citations a year over 3 year(s) since 2025 |
| Impact for its field and year | 2 / 6 | Cited 1.3× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 0 / 6 | No other study in this library cites it |
| Still being cited | 0 / 4 | Cited 2 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 3 / 4 | Last-listed author Kuo‐Liong Chien: h-index 68 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 1 / 3 | National Taiwan University: institution h-index 752 (OpenAlex) |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 2 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 8 institution(s) in 1 country |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 41026993) |
| Free to read | 0 / 2 | Behind a paywall — scores zero |
| Total | 56 / 100 | — |
What each of these 20 components measures, and what this score is not →
Read the original
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Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
APA 7th
Chen, P., Su, T., Chen, Y.-Y., Lee, Y., & Chien, K. (2025). Cardiovascular Risk Trajectories and Risk of Developing Stroke and Dementia. Neurology. https://doi.org/10.1212/wnl.0000000000214179
Vancouver
Chen P, Su T, Chen Y.-Y, Lee Y, Chien K. Cardiovascular Risk Trajectories and Risk of Developing Stroke and Dementia. Neurology. 2025. doi:10.1212/wnl.0000000000214179. PMID: 41026993.
BibTeX
@article{chen2025-41026993,
author = {Chen, Pei‐Chun and Su, Ta‐Chen and Chen, Yun-Yu and Lee, Yuan‐Teh and Chien, Kuo‐Liong},
title = {{Cardiovascular Risk Trajectories and Risk of Developing Stroke and Dementia}},
journal = {Neurology},
year = {2025},
doi = {10.1212/wnl.0000000000214179},
pmid = {41026993},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1212/wnl.0000000000214179}
}
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