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Predicting Alzheimer disease with β-amyloid imaging: results from the Australian imaging, biomarkers, and lifestyle study of ageing
Rowe CC, Bourgeat P, Ellis KA, Brown B, Lim YY, Mulligan R, Jones G, Maruff P et al.. Annals of neurology, 2013-12-01
Topic: Amyloid, tau and blood-test diagnosis
Objective Biomarkers for Alzheimer disease (AD) can detect the disease pathology in asymptomatic subjects and individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), but their cognitive prognosis remains uncertain. We aimed to determine the prognostic value of β-amyloid imaging, alone and in combination with memory performance, hippocampal atrophy, and apolipoprotein E ε4 status in nondemented, older individuals. Methods A total of 183 healthy individuals (age = 72.0 ± 7.26 years) and 87 participants with MCI (age = 73.7 ± 8.27) in the Australian Imaging, Biomarkers, and Lifestyle study of ageing were studied. Clinical reclassification was performed after 3 years, blind to biomarker findings. β-Amyloid imaging was considered positive if the (11) C-Pittsburgh compound B cortical to reference ratio was ≥1.5. Results Thirteen percent of healthy persons progressed (15 to MCI, 8 to dementia), and 59% of the MCI cohort progressed to probable AD. Multivariate analysis showed β-amyloid imaging as the single variable most strongly associated with progression. Of combinations, subtle memory impairment (Z score = -0.5 to -1.5) with a positive amyloid scan was most strongly associated with progression in healthy individuals (odds ratio [OR] = 16, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.7-68; positive predictive value [PPV] = 50%, 95% CI = 19-81; negative predictive value [NPV] = 94%, 95% CI = 88-98). Almost all amnestic MCI subjects (Z score ≤ -1.5) with a positive amyloid scan developed AD (OR = ∞; PPV = 86%, 95% CI = 72-95; NPV = 100%, 95% CI = 80-100). Hippocampal atrophy and ε4 status did not add further predictive value. Interpretation Subtle memory impairment with a positive β-amyloid scan identifies healthy individuals at high risk for MCI or AD. Clearly amnestic patients with a positive amyloid scan have prodromal AD and a poor prognosis for dementia within 3 years.
Key findings
- Results Thirteen percent of healthy persons progressed (15 to MCI, 8 to dementia), and 59% of the MCI cohort progressed to probable AD.
- Multivariate analysis showed β-amyloid imaging as the single variable most strongly associated with progression.
- Of combinations, subtle memory impairment (Z score = -0.5 to -1.5) with a positive amyloid scan was most strongly associated with progression in healthy individuals (odds ratio [OR] = 16, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.7-68; positive predictive value [PPV] = 50%, 95% CI = 19-81; negative predictive value [NPV] = 94%, 95% CI = 88-98).
Why it matters
This study found that amyloid imaging was the single variable most strongly associated with progression to Alzheimer's disease in nondemented older individuals, and that combining subtle memory impairment with a positive amyloid scan was most strongly associated with progression in healthy people. It concerns predicting disease, not treating or preventing it.
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Study details
- Participants87
- Evidence strengthModerate
How this study scored 57/100
Published in a leading specialty journal. Scored zero for study design, effect reported and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 9 / 10 | Tier 2 — leading specialty journal (Annals of neurology) |
| Journal's citation record | 3 / 4 | Annals of Neurology: journal h-index 437 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 0 / 12 | No study design recorded — scores zero, not guessed (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Strength of evidence | 3 / 5 | Rated “moderate” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 1 / 5 | 2013 — within 20 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 1 / 4 | 87 participants |
| Effect reported | 0 / 3 | No effect size reported — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Studied in people | 3 / 3 | Studied in people (participant count stated) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | 5 / 7 | Cited 222 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 3 / 5 | 14.8 citations a year over 15 year(s) since 2013 |
| Impact for its field and year | 4 / 6 | Cited 12.0× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 3 / 6 | Cited by 20 other studies in this library |
| Still being cited | 2 / 4 | Cited 21 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 4 / 4 | Last-listed author Victor L. Villemagne: h-index 110 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 1 / 3 | The University of Melbourne: institution h-index 1,342 (OpenAlex) |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 3 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 12 institution(s) in 1 country |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 24448836) |
| Free to read | 0 / 2 | Behind a paywall — scores zero |
| Total | 57 / 100 | — |
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Read the original
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Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. The record's author list ends in “et al.”, so not every author is named. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
APA 7th
Rowe, C. C., Bourgeat, P., Ellis, K. A., Brown, B., Lim, Y. Y., Mulligan, R., et al. (2013). Predicting Alzheimer disease with β-amyloid imaging: results from the Australian imaging, biomarkers, and lifestyle study of ageing. Annals of neurology. https://doi.org/10.1002/ana.24040
Vancouver
Rowe CC, Bourgeat P, Ellis KA, Brown B, Lim YY, Mulligan R, et al. Predicting Alzheimer disease with β-amyloid imaging: results from the Australian imaging, biomarkers, and lifestyle study of ageing. Annals of neurology. 2013. doi:10.1002/ana.24040. PMID: 24448836.
BibTeX
@article{rowe2013-24448836,
author = {Rowe, C. C. and Bourgeat, P. and Ellis, K. A. and Brown, B. and Lim, Y. Y. and Mulligan, R. and Jones, G. and Maruff, P. and others},
title = {{Predicting Alzheimer disease with β-amyloid imaging: results from the Australian imaging, biomarkers, and lifestyle study of ageing}},
journal = {Annals of neurology},
year = {2013},
doi = {10.1002/ana.24040},
pmid = {24448836},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/ana.24040}
}
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