Comparing predictors of conversion and decline in mild cognitive impairment
Landau SM, Harvey D, Madison CM, Reiman EM, Foster NL, Aisen PS, Petersen RC, Shaw LM et al.. Neurology, 2010-06-30
Topic: Risk, prevention and care in population studies
Objective A variety of measurements have been individually linked to decline in mild cognitive impairment (MCI), but the identification of optimal markers for predicting disease progression remains unresolved. The goal of this study was to evaluate the prognostic ability of genetic, CSF, neuroimaging, and cognitive measurements obtained in the same participants. Methods APOE epsilon4 allele frequency, CSF proteins (Abeta(1-42), total tau, hyperphosphorylated tau [p-tau(181p)]), glucose metabolism (FDG-PET), hippocampal volume, and episodic memory performance were evaluated at baseline in patients with amnestic MCI (n = 85), using data from a large multisite study (Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative). Patients were classified as normal or abnormal on each predictor variable based on externally derived cutoffs, and then variables were evaluated as predictors of subsequent conversion to Alzheimer disease (AD) and cognitive decline (Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale) during a variable follow-up period (1.9 +/- 0.4 years). Results Patients with MCI converted to AD at an annual rate of 17.2%. Subjects with MCI who had abnormal results on both FDG-PET and episodic memory were 11.7 times more likely to convert to AD than subjects who had normal results on both measures (p Conclusions Baseline FDG-PET and episodic memory predict conversion to AD, whereas p-tau(181p)/Abeta(1-42) and, marginally, FDG-PET predict longitudinal cognitive decline. Complementary information provided by these biomarkers may aid in future selection of patients for clinical trials or identification of patients likely to benefit from a therapeutic intervention.
Key findings
- Results Patients with MCI converted to AD at an annual rate of 17.2%.
- Subjects with MCI who had abnormal results on both FDG-PET and episodic memory were 11.7 times more likely to convert to AD than subjects who had normal results on both measures (p <or= 0.02).
Why it matters
In 85 people with memory-type mild cognitive impairment from the ADNI study, followed for about two years, 17.2% a year progressed to Alzheimer's disease. Those with abnormal results on both an FDG-PET brain scan and a memory test were 11.7 times more likely to progress than those normal on both. A spinal-fluid tau/amyloid ratio predicted later cognitive decline instead. This is a small prognostic study that compares tests; it does not test a treatment, and the summary does not report how the gene APOE ε4 or hippocampal size performed.
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Study details
- Study designlongitudinal study
- Participants85
- Effect size17.2%
- Evidence strengthModerate
How this study scored 72/100
Published in a leading specialty journal, and it is a longitudinal study following the same people over time. Scored zero for randomised / blinded because the record does not state it.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 9 / 10 | Tier 2 — leading specialty journal (Neurology) |
| Journal's citation record | 4 / 4 | Neurology: journal h-index 525 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 7 / 12 | A longitudinal study following the same people over time |
| Strength of evidence | 3 / 5 | Rated “moderate” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 1 / 5 | 2010 — within 20 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 1 / 4 | 85 participants |
| Effect reported | 2 / 3 | Effect reported as a number, without an interval or test |
| Studied in people | 3 / 3 | Studied in people (participant count stated) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | 6 / 7 | Cited 619 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 4 / 5 | 34.4 citations a year over 18 year(s) since 2010 |
| Impact for its field and year | 5 / 6 | Cited 38.4× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 4 / 6 | Cited by 72 other studies in this library |
| Still being cited | 3 / 4 | Cited 55 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 4 / 4 | Last-listed author William J. Jagust: h-index 152 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 2 / 3 | University of California, Berkeley: institution h-index 2,012 (OpenAlex) |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 2 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 6 institution(s) in 1 country |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 20592257) |
| Free to read | 0 / 2 | Behind a paywall — scores zero |
| Total | 72 / 100 | — |
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Read the original
- DOI: 10.1212/wnl.0b013e3181e8e8b8
- PubMed: 20592257
- Original source →
- Free full text: PubMed Central →
Full text: free to read — PubMed Central lists this copy as free to read: the link above (checked 10 Oct 2026).
Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. The record's author list ends in “et al.”, so not every author is named. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
APA 7th
Landau, S. M., Harvey, D., Madison, C. M., Reiman, E. M., Foster, N. L., Aisen, P. S., et al. (2010). Comparing predictors of conversion and decline in mild cognitive impairment. Neurology. https://doi.org/10.1212/wnl.0b013e3181e8e8b8
Vancouver
Landau SM, Harvey D, Madison CM, Reiman EM, Foster NL, Aisen PS, et al. Comparing predictors of conversion and decline in mild cognitive impairment. Neurology. 2010. doi:10.1212/wnl.0b013e3181e8e8b8. PMID: 20592257.
BibTeX
@article{landau2010-20592257,
author = {Landau, S. M. and Harvey, D. and Madison, C. M. and Reiman, E. M. and Foster, N. L. and Aisen, P. S. and Petersen, R. C. and Shaw, L. M. and others},
title = {{Comparing predictors of conversion and decline in mild cognitive impairment}},
journal = {Neurology},
year = {2010},
doi = {10.1212/wnl.0b013e3181e8e8b8},
pmid = {20592257},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1212/wnl.0b013e3181e8e8b8}
}
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