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Population attributable fractions of modifiable risk factors for dementia: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Stephan BCM, Cochrane L, Kafadar AH, Brain J, Burton E, Myers B, et al.. Lancet Healthy Longevity, 2024
Topic: Risk, prevention and care in population studies
Background More than 57 million people have dementia worldwide. Evidence indicates a change in dementia prevalence and incidence in high-income countries, which is likely to be due to improved life-course population health. Identifying key modifiable risk factors for dementia is essential for informing risk reduction and prevention strategies. We therefore aimed to estimate the population attributable fraction (PAF) for dementia associated with modifiable risk factors. Methods In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched Embase, MEDLINE, and PsycINFO, via Ovid, from database inception up to June 29, 2023, for population-derived or community-based studies and reviews reporting a PAF value for one or more modifiable risk factor for later-life dementia (prevalent or incident dementia in people aged ≥60 years), with no restrictions on dementia subtype, the sex or baseline age of participants, or the period of study. Articles were independently screened for inclusion by four authors, with disagreements resolved through consensus. Data including unweighted and weighted PAF values (weighted to account for communality or overlap in risk) were independently extracted into a predefined template by two authors and checked by two other authors. When five or more unique studies investigated a given risk factor or combination of the same factors, random-effects meta-analyses were used to calculate a pooled PAF percentage estimate for the factor or combination of factors. The review protocol was registered on PROSPERO, CRD42022323429. Findings 4024 articles were identified, and 74 were included in our narrative synthesis. Overall, PAFs were reported for 61 modifiable risk factors, with sufficient data available for meta-analysis of 12 factors (n=48 studies). In meta-analyses, the highest pooled unweighted PAF values were estimated for low education (17·2% [95% CI 14·4-20·0], p Interpretation Governments need to invest in a life-course approach to dementia prevention, including policies that enable quality education, health-promoting environments, and improved health. This investment is particularly important in LMICs, where the potential for prevention is high, but resources, infrastructure, budgets, and research focused on ageing and dementia are limited. Funding UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council).
Key findings
- We therefore aimed to estimate the population attributable fraction (PAF) for dementia associated with modifiable risk factors.
- Overall, PAFs were reported for 61 modifiable risk factors, with sufficient data available for meta-analysis of 12 factors (n=48 studies).
Why it matters
This review estimated how much of dementia in the population could be attributed to various modifiable risk factors, reporting figures for 61 factors and pooling data for 12 of them. Such estimates are used to guide risk reduction and prevention strategies, though they do not by themselves prove that changing a factor prevents dementia.
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Study details
- Study designmeta-analysis
- Effect sizeWeighted combined PAF 32.0% (95% CI 26.6-37.5) for seven modifiable factors
- Evidence strengthModerate
Limitations
PAFs assume causality and depend on risk-factor prevalence in each population; substantial overlap between factors; heterogeneous source studies.
How this study scored 72/100
Published in a leading specialty journal, and it is a meta-analysis pooling many studies. Scored zero for sample size and studied in people because the record does not state it. We have no data on free to read, so that was left out: it earned 71 of the 98 points we could judge it on, which is 72 out of 100.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 9 / 10 | Tier 2 — leading specialty journal (Lancet Healthy Longevity) |
| Journal's citation record | 1 / 4 | The Lancet Healthy Longevity: journal h-index 78 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 12 / 12 | A meta-analysis pooling many studies |
| Strength of evidence | 3 / 5 | Rated “moderate” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 4 / 5 | 2024 — within 3 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 0 / 4 | Participant count not stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Effect reported | 3 / 3 | Effect reported with a statistic (interval, p-value, ratio or similar) |
| Studied in people | 0 / 3 | Not stated whether this was studied in people — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | A review of other studies — randomisation is not credited here |
| Times cited | 5 / 7 | Cited 107 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 4 / 5 | 26.8 citations a year over 4 year(s) since 2024 |
| Impact for its field and year | 4 / 6 | Cited 10.9× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 3 / 6 | Cited by 21 other studies in this library |
| Still being cited | 3 / 4 | Cited 107 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 3 / 4 | Last-listed author Mario Siervo: h-index 69 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 2 / 3 | University of Cambridge: institution h-index 1,973 (OpenAlex) |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 3 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 12 institution(s) in 5 countries |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 38824956) |
| Free to read | — / 2 | Access not recorded — left out of this score |
| Points | 71 / 98 | Scored on 19 of 20 parts. We have no data for the rest, so they are left out: 71 of the 98 points we could judge it on is 72 out of 100. |
| Total | 72 / 100 | — |
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Read the original
- DOI: 10.1016/S2666-7568(24)00061-8
- PubMed: 38824956
- Original source →
- Free full text: PubMed Central →
Full text: free to read — PubMed Central lists this copy as free to read: the link above (checked 10 Oct 2026).
Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. The record's author list ends in “et al.”, so not every author is named. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
APA 7th
Stephan, B. C. M., Cochrane, L., Kafadar, A. H., Brain, J., Burton, E., Myers, B., et al. (2024). Population attributable fractions of modifiable risk factors for dementia: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Lancet Healthy Longevity. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2666-7568(24)00061-8
Vancouver
Stephan BCM, Cochrane L, Kafadar AH, Brain J, Burton E, Myers B, et al. Population attributable fractions of modifiable risk factors for dementia: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Lancet Healthy Longevity. 2024. doi:10.1016/S2666-7568(24)00061-8. PMID: 38824956.
BibTeX
@article{stephan2024-38824956,
author = {Stephan, B. C. M. and Cochrane, L. and Kafadar, A. H. and Brain, J. and Burton, E. and Myers, B. and others},
title = {{Population attributable fractions of modifiable risk factors for dementia: a systematic review and meta-analysis}},
journal = {Lancet Healthy Longevity},
year = {2024},
doi = {10.1016/S2666-7568(24)00061-8},
pmid = {38824956},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/S2666-7568(24)00061-8}
}
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