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The potential for dementia prevention in Brazil: a population attributable fraction calculation for 14 modifiable risk factors
Cláudia Kimie Suemoto, Wyllians Vendramini Borelli, Ismael Luis Calandri, Laiss Bertola, Raphael Machado Castilhos, Paulo Caramelli, Ricardo Nitríni, Sônia Maria Dozzi Brucki et al.. The Lancet Regional Health - Americas, 2025-08-07
Topic: Risk, prevention and care in population studies
The overall PAF for the 14 modifiable risk factors was 59.5% (95% CI = 58.5-60.5). The three risk factors with the highest PAFs were less education (9.5%, 95% CI = 8.9-10.1), untreated visual loss (9.2%, 95% CI = 8.6-9.8), and midlife depression (6.3%, 95% CI = 5.8-6.8). The overall PAF was similar across race and region but was higher among women (61.1%, 95% CI = 59.9-62.4) compared to men (58.2%, 95% CI = 56.7-59.8). Almost 60% of dementia cases in Brazil could potentially be prevented by addressing 14 modifiable risk factors. Public health strategies could further reduce the dementia burden in Brazil. Funding: CKS, PC, and CPF received productivity fellowships from the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq). ELSI-Brazil was supported by the Brazilian Ministry of Health: DECIT/SCTIE (Grants: 404965/2012-1 and TED 28/2017); COPID/DECIV/SAPS (Grants: 20836, 22566, 23700, 25560, 25552, and 27510).
Key findings
- The overall PAF for the 14 modifiable risk factors was 59.5% (95% CI = 58.5-60.5).
- The three risk factors with the highest PAFs were less education (9.5%, 95% CI = 8.9-10.1), untreated visual loss (9.2%, 95% CI = 8.6-9.8), and midlife depression (6.3%, 95% CI = 5.8-6.8).
- The overall PAF was similar across race and region but was higher among women (61.1%, 95% CI = 59.9-62.4) compared to men (58.2%, 95% CI = 56.7-59.8).
- Almost 60% of dementia cases in Brazil could potentially be prevented by addressing 14 modifiable risk factors.
- Public health strategies could further reduce the dementia burden in Brazil.
Why it matters
This calculation estimates that almost 60% of dementia cases in Brazil could potentially be prevented by addressing 14 modifiable risk factors, with less education, untreated visual loss, and midlife depression having the highest fractions. It is a population-level estimate of prevention potential, not evidence that any specific intervention prevents dementia in an individual.
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Study details
- Study designlongitudinal study
- Participants9,949
- Effect size59.5%; 9.5%; 9.2%
- Evidence strengthModerate
How this study scored 58/100
Published in a peer-reviewed journal, and it is a longitudinal study following the same people over time. Scored zero for randomised / blinded because the record does not state it.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 7 / 10 | Tier 3 — peer-reviewed journal (The Lancet Regional Health - Americas) |
| Journal's citation record | 0 / 4 | The Lancet Regional Health - Americas: journal h-index 61 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 7 / 12 | A longitudinal study following the same people over time |
| Strength of evidence | 3 / 5 | Rated “moderate” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 4 / 5 | 2025 — within 3 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 3 / 4 | 9,949 participants |
| Effect reported | 2 / 3 | Effect reported as a number, without an interval or test |
| Studied in people | 3 / 3 | Studied in people (participant count stated) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | 2 / 7 | Cited 10 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 2 / 5 | 3.3 citations a year over 3 year(s) since 2025 |
| Impact for its field and year | 3 / 6 | Cited 6.4× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 0 / 6 | No other study in this library cites it |
| Still being cited | 1 / 4 | Cited 10 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 3 / 4 | Last-listed author Cleusa P. Ferri: h-index 59 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 2 / 3 | University College London: institution h-index 2,029 (OpenAlex) |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 2 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 8 institution(s) in 3 countries |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 40823285) |
| Free to read | 2 / 2 | Free to read |
| Total | 58 / 100 | — |
What each of these 20 components measures, and what this score is not →
Read the original
- DOI: 10.1016/j.lana.2025.101209
- PubMed: 40823285
- Original source →
- Free full text: The Lancet Regional Health - Americas →
Full text: free to read — OpenAlex lists this copy as free to read: the link above (checked 6 Feb 1020).
Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. The record's author list ends in “et al.”, so not every author is named. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
APA 7th
Suemoto, C. K., Borelli, W. V., Calandri, I. L., Bertola, L., Castilhos, R. M., Caramelli, P., et al. (2025). The potential for dementia prevention in Brazil: a population attributable fraction calculation for 14 modifiable risk factors. The Lancet Regional Health - Americas. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lana.2025.101209
Vancouver
Suemoto CK, Borelli WV, Calandri IL, Bertola L, Castilhos RM, Caramelli P, et al. The potential for dementia prevention in Brazil: a population attributable fraction calculation for 14 modifiable risk factors. The Lancet Regional Health - Americas. 2025. doi:10.1016/j.lana.2025.101209. PMID: 40823285.
BibTeX
@article{suemoto2025-40823285,
author = {Suemoto, Cláudia Kimie and Borelli, Wyllians Vendramini and Calandri, Ismael Luis and Bertola, Laiss and Castilhos, Raphael Machado and Caramelli, Paulo and Nitríni, Ricardo and Brucki, Sônia Maria Dozzi and others},
title = {{The potential for dementia prevention in Brazil: a population attributable fraction calculation for 14 modifiable risk factors}},
journal = {The Lancet Regional Health - Americas},
year = {2025},
doi = {10.1016/j.lana.2025.101209},
pmid = {40823285},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lana.2025.101209}
}
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