Home › Research › Prevention and risk
Climate change and biodiversity in Brazil: What we know, what we don’t, and Paris Agreement’s risk reduction potential
Artur Malecha, Stella Manes, Mariana Moncassim Vale. Perspectives in Ecology and Conservation, 2025-04-01
Topic: Risk, prevention and care in population studies
Over recent decades, Brazil has amassed a wealth of knowledge regarding the potential effects of climate change on its biodiversity. Studies have predicted mostly negative impacts and some positive ones, and it is time to synthesize this information. We did a systematic review of the literature and quantitative analysis, gathering 20,582 risk projections from 131 papers. We then estimated the effect size of the projected risks. We found that climate change impacts on biodiversity vary spatially. The Pantanal wetlands are predicted to experience the most significant negative impacts, followed by the Amazon and the Atlantic Forest, while the Pampa grasslands are expected to see lower impacts. Our analysis also reveals biases and knowledge gaps. For example, the shortage of studies on marine environments precluded their inclusion in the analysis, and there was a strong bias towards the Amazon and the Atlantic Forest, with a shortage of studies on the Pantanal and the Pampa. Moreover, there was a taxonomic bias towards plants and terrestrial vertebrates, which comprised >90% of the data. Finally, while adherence to the Paris Agreement is unlikely to eliminate climate change impacts on biodiversity, our analysis predicts that it could reduce these impacts by 20% and halve the number of species at risk of extinction from climate change in Brazil.
Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
APA 7th
Malecha, A., Manes, S., & Vale, M. M. (2025). Climate change and biodiversity in Brazil: What we know, what we don’t, and Paris Agreement’s risk reduction potential. Perspectives in Ecology and Conservation. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pecon.2025.03.004
Vancouver
Malecha A, Manes S, Vale MM. Climate change and biodiversity in Brazil: What we know, what we don’t, and Paris Agreement’s risk reduction potential. Perspectives in Ecology and Conservation. 2025. doi:10.1016/j.pecon.2025.03.004.
BibTeX
@article{malecha2025-cdbdaacd,
author = {Malecha, Artur and Manes, Stella and Vale, Mariana Moncassim},
title = {{Climate change and biodiversity in Brazil: What we know, what we don’t, and Paris Agreement’s risk reduction potential}},
journal = {Perspectives in Ecology and Conservation},
year = {2025},
doi = {10.1016/j.pecon.2025.03.004},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pecon.2025.03.004}
}
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
Key findings
- We found that climate change impacts on biodiversity vary spatially.
- The Pantanal wetlands are predicted to experience the most significant negative impacts, followed by the Amazon and the Atlantic Forest, while the Pampa grasslands are expected to see lower impacts.
Why it matters
This systematic review projected climate change impacts on biodiversity in Brazil and estimated that Paris Agreement adherence could reduce impacts by 20%. It contains no information relevant to Alzheimer's disease.
New to this subject? Start with our plain-English guide: Prevention →
Study details
- Study designsystematic review
- Evidence strengthHigh
How this study scored 56/100
Published in a peer-reviewed journal, and it is a systematic review of all the studies on the question. Scored zero for sample size, effect reported and studied in people because the record does not state it.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 7 / 10 | Tier 3 — peer-reviewed journal (Perspectives in Ecology and Conservation) |
| Journal's citation record | 0 / 4 | Perspectives in Ecology and Conservation: journal h-index 51 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 12 / 12 | A systematic review of all the studies on the question |
| Strength of evidence | 5 / 5 | Rated “high” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 4 / 5 | 2025 — within 3 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 0 / 4 | Participant count not stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Effect reported | 0 / 3 | No effect size reported — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Studied in people | 0 / 3 | Not stated whether this was studied in people — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | A review of other studies — randomisation is not credited here |
| Times cited | 3 / 7 | Cited 16 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 2 / 5 | 5.3 citations a year over 3 year(s) since 2025 |
| Impact for its field and year | 5 / 6 | Cited 32.0× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 0 / 6 | No other study in this library cites it |
| Still being cited | 2 / 4 | Cited 16 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 2 / 4 | Last-listed author Mariana Moncassim Vale: h-index 33 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 0 / 3 | Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro: institution h-index 617 (OpenAlex) |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 1 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 2 institution(s) in 1 country |
| Indexed in PubMed | 1 / 2 | Not in PubMed, but has a DOI |
| Free to read | 2 / 2 | Free to read |
| Total | 56 / 100 | — |
What each of these 20 components measures, and what this score is not →
Read the original
- DOI: 10.1016/j.pecon.2025.03.004
- Original source →
- Free full text: Perspectives in Ecology and Conservation →
Full text: free to read — OpenAlex lists this copy as free to read: the link above (checked 6 Feb 1020).
Related
Studies in the library that share something with this one. The line above each title says what.
Related studies in Prevention and risk
Also in Prevention and risk
265 studies in the library are filed under Prevention and risk with no topic tag they share with another; these are this study's neighbours in a fixed tour of them. The Prevention and risk hub.