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Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Nichols E, Steinmetz JD, Vollset SE, et al. (GBD 2019 Dementia Forecasting Collaborators). The Lancet Public Health, 2022-01-06
Topic: Risk, prevention and care in population studies
Using worldwide health data, researchers project that the number of people living with dementia will nearly triple by 2050, from about 57 million in 2019 to about 153 million. Most of this rise is simply because populations are growing and aging, though rising obesity, high blood sugar, and smoking are also expected to add millions of cases, partly offset by more people getting more education. The increase will hit low- and middle-income regions like North Africa, the Middle East, and sub-Saharan Africa hardest.
Key findings
- Global dementia cases projected to rise from 57.4 million (2019) to 152.8 million (2050), a 166% increase
- Smallest projected increase in high-income Asia Pacific (53%); largest in north Africa/Middle East (367%) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357%)
- Improving education access projected to reduce 2050 cases by 6.2 million, but rising obesity, high blood sugar, and smoking projected to add 6.8 million cases
- Female-to-male ratio of dementia cases was 1.69 in 2019 and expected to remain around 1.67 in 2050
Why it matters
Global dementia cases are projected to nearly triple by 2050, from about 57 million in 2019 to about 153 million, mostly because populations are growing and aging. Rising obesity, high blood sugar, and smoking are expected to add cases, partly offset by more people getting more education.
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Study details
- Study designmodelling
- Effect size57.4 million cases in 2019 (95% UI 50.4-65.1 million) projected to rise to 152.8 million cases in 2050 (95% UI 130.8-175.9 million), a 166% (148-185%) increase; smallest regional increase in high-income Asia Pacific (53%), largest in north Africa/Middle East (367%)
- Evidence strengthHigh
Limitations
Estimates are modeled (not directly measured) for most countries, relying on statistical imputation from heterogeneous underlying prevalence studies, and long-range forecasts assume current risk-factor trends will continue unchanged.
How this study scored 52/100
Published in a leading specialty journal, and it is a computer model rather than new measurements. Scored zero for sample size, studied in people, randomised / blinded and indexed in PubMed because the record does not state it. We have no data on journal's citation record, times cited, citations per year, impact for its field and year, still being cited, senior author's track record, institution's track record, multi-centre collaboration and free to read, so those were left out: it earned 32 of the 62 points we could judge it on, which is 52 out of 100.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 9 / 10 | Tier 2 — leading specialty journal (The Lancet Public Health) |
| Journal's citation record | — / 4 | No journal record from OpenAlex — left out of this score |
| Study design | 3 / 12 | A computer model rather than new measurements |
| Strength of evidence | 5 / 5 | Rated “high” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 3 / 5 | 2022 — within 6 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 0 / 4 | Participant count not stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Effect reported | 2 / 3 | Effect reported as a number, without an interval or test |
| Studied in people | 0 / 3 | Not stated whether this was studied in people — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | — / 7 | No citation count (not found in OpenAlex) — left out of this score |
| Citations per year | — / 5 | No citation count or no year — left out of this score |
| Impact for its field and year | — / 6 | No field-weighted citation impact (OpenAlex has none yet) — left out of this score |
| Cited by studies here | 0 / 6 | No other study in this library cites it |
| Still being cited | — / 4 | No yearly citation counts — left out of this score |
| Senior author's track record | — / 4 | Senior author's record not available — left out of this score |
| Institution's track record | — / 3 | No institution listed in OpenAlex — left out of this score |
| Multi-centre collaboration | — / 3 | Institutions not listed — left out of this score |
| Indexed in PubMed | 0 / 2 | No PubMed ID and no DOI — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Free to read | — / 2 | Access not recorded — left out of this score |
| Points | 32 / 62 | Scored on 11 of 20 parts. We have no data for the rest, so they are left out: 32 of the 62 points we could judge it on is 52 out of 100. |
| Total | 52 / 100 | — |
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Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. This record has no DOI, so the citation leaves it out. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. The record's author list ends in “et al.”, so not every author is named. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
APA 7th
Nichols, E., Steinmetz, J. D., Vollset, S. E., et al. (2022). Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet Public Health.
Vancouver
Nichols E, Steinmetz JD, Vollset SE, et al. Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet Public Health. 2022. PMID: 34998485.
BibTeX
@article{nichols2022-e0031f2a,
author = {Nichols, E. and Steinmetz, J. D. and Vollset, S. E. and others},
title = {{Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019}},
journal = {The Lancet Public Health},
year = {2022},
pmid = {34998485}
}
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