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Estimating the impact of risk factor reduction on dementia prevalence in New Zealand
Etuini Ma’u, Naaheed Mukadam, Gill Livingston, Sebastian Walsh, Susanne Röhr, Carol Brayne, Gary Cheung, Sarah J. Cullum. Alzheimer s & Dementia, 2025-07-01
Topic: Risk, prevention and care in population studies
The PIF for the total NZ population following a 15% risk factor reduction was 14.6% (95% confidence interval: 7.7-21.1) Modeled projections demonstrated prevalence reduction over time, from 1.0% at 10 years to 4.2% at 30 years. PIF and modeled reductions at all time points were higher for Māori and Pacific peoples. The projected impact of interventions targetting risk factor reduction increases over a 30-year time horizon and the benefit is potentially higher in ethnic groups with higher risk factor prevalence. HIGHLIGHTS: Achievable risk factor reductions have significant prevention potential. The projected impact of risk factor interventions increase with time. We need to consider longer time horizons when assessing proposed interventions.
Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
APA 7th
Ma’u, E., Mukadam, N., Livingston, G., Walsh, S., Röhr, S., Brayne, C., et al. (2025). Estimating the impact of risk factor reduction on dementia prevalence in New Zealand. Alzheimer s & Dementia. https://doi.org/10.1002/alz.70440
Vancouver
Ma’u E, Mukadam N, Livingston G, Walsh S, Röhr S, Brayne C, et al. Estimating the impact of risk factor reduction on dementia prevalence in New Zealand. Alzheimer s & Dementia. 2025. doi:10.1002/alz.70440. PMID: 40613469.
BibTeX
@article{mau2025-40613469,
author = {Ma’u, Etuini and Mukadam, Naaheed and Livingston, Gill and Walsh, Sebastian and Röhr, Susanne and Brayne, Carol and Cheung, Gary and Cullum, Sarah J.},
title = {{Estimating the impact of risk factor reduction on dementia prevalence in New Zealand}},
journal = {Alzheimer s \& Dementia},
year = {2025},
doi = {10.1002/alz.70440},
pmid = {40613469},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/alz.70440}
}
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. The record names 8 authors; APA and Vancouver show the first six, BibTeX and the downloads carry all of them. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
Key findings
- The PIF for the total NZ population following a 15% risk factor reduction was 14.6% (95% confidence interval: 7.7-21.1) Modeled projections demonstrated prevalence reduction over time, from 1.0% at 10 years to 4.2% at 30 years.
- PIF and modeled reductions at all time points were higher for Māori and Pacific peoples.
- The projected impact of interventions targetting risk factor reduction increases over a 30-year time horizon and the benefit is potentially higher in ethnic groups with higher risk factor prevalence.
- HIGHLIGHTS: Achievable risk factor reductions have significant prevention potential.
- The projected impact of risk factor interventions increase with time.
Why it matters
Modeling for New Zealand estimated that a 15% reduction in risk factors could lower dementia prevalence, with the benefit growing over a 30-year horizon and being larger for Māori and Pacific peoples. This supports prevention through risk factor reduction, but the projections are modeled rather than tested in a trial.
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Study details
- Effect size14.6%; 1.0%; 4.2%
- Evidence strengthLow
How this study scored 42/100
Published in a peer-reviewed journal. Scored zero for study design, sample size, studied in people and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 7 / 10 | Tier 3 — peer-reviewed journal (Alzheimer s & Dementia) |
| Journal's citation record | 2 / 4 | Alzheimer s & Dementia: journal h-index 228 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 0 / 12 | No study design recorded — scores zero, not guessed (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Strength of evidence | 1 / 5 | Rated “low” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 4 / 5 | 2025 — within 3 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 0 / 4 | Participant count not stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Effect reported | 2 / 3 | Effect reported as a number, without an interval or test |
| Studied in people | 0 / 3 | Not stated whether this was studied in people — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | 1 / 7 | Cited 4 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 1 / 5 | 1.3 citations a year over 3 year(s) since 2025 |
| Impact for its field and year | 2 / 6 | Cited 2.5× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 1 / 6 | Cited by 1 other studies in this library |
| Still being cited | 1 / 4 | Cited 4 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 2 / 4 | Last-listed author Sarah J. Cullum: h-index 25 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 2 / 3 | University College London: institution h-index 2,029 (OpenAlex) |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 2 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 9 institution(s) in 4 countries |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 40613469) |
| Free to read | 2 / 2 | Free to read |
| Total | 42 / 100 | — |
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