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Development and validation of the LateDem-Risk score to predict dementia incidence in the InveCe.Ab and Trelong Italian cohorts
Michele Rossi, Irene Brianzoni, Mauro Colombo, Annalisa Davin, Maurizio Gallucci, Antonio Guaita, N. Vanacore, Elena Rolandi. Scientific Reports, 2026-02-14
Topic: Risk, prevention and care in population studies
Identifying older adults at increased dementia risk is a public health priority. Existing scores often emphasize midlife factors or variables of limited utility in late life. We developed a late-life dementia risk score using data from the InveCe.Ab cohort, including 1100 dementia-free individuals aged 70–74 and followed for 12 years. Candidate risk and protective factors were selected based on systematic reviews and expert consensus. Stepwise Cox models were used to construct a weighted score with and without adjustment for non-modifiable factors. External validation was performed in the TRELONG cohort. The selected modifiable factors were diabetes, alcohol consumption, hypercholesterolemia, social participation, and cognitive activity, with strong predictive accuracy for dementia incidence (HR = 1.23; 95% CI 1.14–1.33; p < 0.026), also after adjustment for non-modifiable factors. In the TRELONG cohort, the score remained significant (HR = 1.19; 95% CI 1.05–1.10; p = 0.008), though its predictive value decreased when adjusting for non-modifiable factors. The LateDem-Risk score offers a practical tool for risk stratification in adults aged ≥ 70 years. Further studies are needed to evaluate its predictive performance in different settings and populations.
Key findings
- In the TRELONG cohort, the score remained significant (HR = 1.19; 95% CI 1.05–1.10; p = 0.008), though its predictive value decreased when adjusting for non-modifiable factors.
Why it matters
A risk score built from factors like diabetes, alcohol consumption, cholesterol, social participation and cognitive activity predicted dementia in adults aged 70 and older in two Italian cohorts. The score is a practical tool for risk stratification, but further studies are needed to test how well it works in other settings and populations.
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Study details
- Effect sizeHR = 1.23; HR = 1.19
- Evidence strengthModerate
How this study scored 44/100
Published in a peer-reviewed journal. Scored zero for study design, sample size, studied in people and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 7 / 10 | Tier 3 — peer-reviewed journal (Scientific Reports) |
| Journal's citation record | 3 / 4 | Scientific Reports: journal h-index 463 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 0 / 12 | No study design recorded — scores zero, not guessed (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Strength of evidence | 3 / 5 | Rated “moderate” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 5 / 5 | 2026 — within 1 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 0 / 4 | Participant count not stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Effect reported | 3 / 3 | Effect reported with a statistic (interval, p-value, ratio or similar) |
| Studied in people | 0 / 3 | Not stated whether this was studied in people — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | 1 / 7 | Cited 2 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 1 / 5 | 1.0 citations a year over 2 year(s) since 2026 |
| Impact for its field and year | 4 / 6 | Cited 9.5× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 0 / 6 | No other study in this library cites it |
| Still being cited | 0 / 4 | Cited 2 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 2 / 4 | Last-listed author Elena Rolandi: h-index 24 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 0 / 3 | Istituto Superiore di Sanità: institution h-index 523 (OpenAlex) |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 1 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 3 institution(s) in 1 country |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 41691016) |
| Free to read | 2 / 2 | Free to read |
| Total | 44 / 100 | — |
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Read the original
- DOI: 10.1038/s41598-026-39205-z
- PubMed: 41691016
- Original source →
- Free full text: Scientific Reports →
Full text: free to read — OpenAlex lists this copy as free to read: the link above (checked 6 Feb 1020).
Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. The record names 8 authors; APA and Vancouver show the first six, BibTeX and the downloads carry all of them. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
APA 7th
Rossi, M., Brianzoni, I., Colombo, M., Davin, A., Gallucci, M., Guaita, A., et al. (2026). Development and validation of the LateDem-Risk score to predict dementia incidence in the InveCe.Ab and Trelong Italian cohorts. Scientific Reports. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-39205-z
Vancouver
Rossi M, Brianzoni I, Colombo M, Davin A, Gallucci M, Guaita A, et al. Development and validation of the LateDem-Risk score to predict dementia incidence in the InveCe.Ab and Trelong Italian cohorts. Scientific Reports. 2026. doi:10.1038/s41598-026-39205-z. PMID: 41691016.
BibTeX
@article{rossi2026-41691016,
author = {Rossi, Michele and Brianzoni, Irene and Colombo, Mauro and Davin, Annalisa and Gallucci, Maurizio and Guaita, Antonio and Vanacore, N. and Rolandi, Elena},
title = {{Development and validation of the LateDem-Risk score to predict dementia incidence in the InveCe.Ab and Trelong Italian cohorts}},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
year = {2026},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-026-39205-z},
pmid = {41691016},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-39205-z}
}
Studies this one cites
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