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Plasma proteomic profiles predict future dementia in healthy adults
Guo Y, You J, Zhang Y, Liu WS, Huang YY, Zhang YR, Zhang W, Dong Q et al.. Nature aging, 2024-02-12
Topic: Amyloid, tau and blood-test diagnosis
The advent of proteomics offers an unprecedented opportunity to predict dementia onset. We examined this in data from 52,645 adults without dementia in the UK Biobank, with 1,417 incident cases and a follow-up time of 14.1 years. Of 1,463 plasma proteins, GFAP, NEFL, GDF15 and LTBP2 consistently associated most with incident all-cause dementia (ACD), Alzheimer's disease (AD) and vascular dementia (VaD), and ranked high in protein importance ordering. Combining GFAP (or GDF15) with demographics produced desirable predictions for ACD (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.891) and AD (AUC = 0.872) (or VaD (AUC = 0.912)). This was also true when predicting over 10-year ACD, AD and VaD. Individuals with higher GFAP levels were 2.32 times more likely to develop dementia. Notably, GFAP and LTBP2 were highly specific for dementia prediction. GFAP and NEFL began to change at least 10 years before dementia diagnosis. Our findings strongly highlight GFAP as an optimal biomarker for dementia prediction, even more than 10 years before the diagnosis, with implications for screening people at high risk for dementia and for early intervention.
Key findings
- Our findings strongly highlight GFAP as an optimal biomarker for dementia prediction, even more than 10 years before the diagnosis, with implications for screening people at high risk for dementia and for early intervention.
Why it matters
Following 52,645 dementia-free UK Biobank adults for 14.1 years (1,417 developed dementia), researchers measured 1,463 blood proteins and found GFAP, NEFL, GDF15 and LTBP2 most consistently linked to later all-cause dementia, Alzheimer's disease and vascular dementia, with GFAP and NEFL changing at least 10 years before diagnosis. GFAP (or GDF15) combined with demographic information predicted all-cause dementia with an AUC of 0.891 and Alzheimer's with 0.872, and people with higher GFAP were 2.32 times more likely to develop dementia. The authors see this as pointing toward blood-based screening of high-risk people, but it is a prediction study of associations, not a test of any treatment.
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Study details
- Participants52,645
- Effect sizeAUC = 0.872; AUC = 0.912
- Evidence strengthLow
How this study scored 65/100
Published in a leading specialty journal. Scored zero for study design and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 9 / 10 | Tier 2 — leading specialty journal (Nature aging) |
| Journal's citation record | 1 / 4 | Nature Aging: journal h-index 103 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 0 / 12 | No study design recorded — scores zero, not guessed (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Strength of evidence | 1 / 5 | Rated “low” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 4 / 5 | 2024 — within 3 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 4 / 4 | 52,645 participants |
| Effect reported | 3 / 3 | Effect reported with a statistic (interval, p-value, ratio or similar) |
| Studied in people | 3 / 3 | Studied in people (participant count stated) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | 5 / 7 | Cited 297 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 5 / 5 | 74.2 citations a year over 4 year(s) since 2024 |
| Impact for its field and year | 6 / 6 | Cited 80.2× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 3 / 6 | Cited by 21 other studies in this library |
| Still being cited | 4 / 4 | Cited 295 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 2 / 4 | Last-listed author Jin‐Tai Yu: h-index 39 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 1 / 3 | Fudan University: institution h-index 954 (OpenAlex) |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 2 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 5 institution(s) in 1 country |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 38347190) |
| Free to read | 0 / 2 | Behind a paywall — scores zero |
| Total | 65 / 100 | — |
What each of these 20 components measures, and what this score is not →
Read the original
- DOI: 10.1038/s43587-023-00565-0
- PubMed: 38347190
- Original source →
- Free full text: Warwick Research Archive Portal (University of Warwick) →
Full text: free to read — OpenAlex lists this copy as free to read: the link above (checked 6 Feb 1020).
Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. The record's author list ends in “et al.”, so not every author is named. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
APA 7th
Guo, Y., You, J., Zhang, Y., Liu, W. S., Huang, Y. Y., Zhang, Y. R., et al. (2024). Plasma proteomic profiles predict future dementia in healthy adults. Nature aging. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43587-023-00565-0
Vancouver
Guo Y, You J, Zhang Y, Liu WS, Huang YY, Zhang YR, et al. Plasma proteomic profiles predict future dementia in healthy adults. Nature aging. 2024. doi:10.1038/s43587-023-00565-0. PMID: 38347190.
BibTeX
@article{guo2024-38347190,
author = {Guo, Y. and You, J. and Zhang, Y. and Liu, W. S. and Huang, Y. Y. and Zhang, Y. R. and Zhang, W. and Dong, Q. and others},
title = {{Plasma proteomic profiles predict future dementia in healthy adults}},
journal = {Nature aging},
year = {2024},
doi = {10.1038/s43587-023-00565-0},
pmid = {38347190},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s43587-023-00565-0}
}
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