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Predicting cognitive decline: a dementia risk score vs. the Framingham vascular risk scores
Kaffashian S, Dugravot A, Elbaz A, Shipley MJ, Sabia S, Kivimäki M, Singh-Manoux A.. Neurology, 2013-04-01
Topic: Risk, prevention and care in population studies
Objective Our aim was to compare 2 Framingham vascular risk scores with a dementia risk score in relation to 10-year cognitive decline in late middle age. Methods Participants were men and women with mean age of 55.6 years at baseline, from the Whitehall II study, a longitudinal British cohort study. We compared the Framingham general cardiovascular disease risk score and the Framingham stroke risk score with the cardiovascular risk factors, aging and dementia (CAIDE) risk score that uses risk factors in midlife to estimate risk of late-life dementia. Cognitive tests included reasoning, memory, verbal fluency, vocabulary, and global cognition, assessed 3 times over 10 years. Results Higher cardiovascular disease risk and higher stroke risk were associated with greater cognitive decline in all tests except memory; higher dementia risk was associated with greater decline in reasoning, vocabulary, and global cognitive scores. Compared with the dementia risk score, cardiovascular and stroke risk scores showed slightly stronger associations with 10-year cognitive decline; these differences were statistically significant for semantic fluency and global cognitive scores. For example, cardiovascular disease risk was associated with -0.06 SD (95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.08, -0.05) decline in the global cognitive scores over 10 years whereas dementia risk was associated with -0.03 SD (95% CI = -0.04, -0.01) decline (difference in β coefficients = 0.03; 95% CI = 0.01, 0.05). Conclusions The CAIDE dementia and Framingham risk scores predict cognitive decline in late middle age but the Framingham risk scores may have an advantage over the dementia risk score for use in primary prevention for assessing risk of cognitive decline and targeting of modifiable risk factors.
Key findings
- Results Higher cardiovascular disease risk and higher stroke risk were associated with greater cognitive decline in all tests except memory; higher dementia risk was associated with greater decline in reasoning, vocabulary, and global cognitive scores.
- Compared with the dementia risk score, cardiovascular and stroke risk scores showed slightly stronger associations with 10-year cognitive decline; these differences were statistically significant for semantic fluency and global cognitive scores.
- For example, cardiovascular disease risk was associated with -0.06 SD (95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.08, -0.05) decline in the global cognitive scores over 10 years whereas dementia risk was associated with -0.03 SD (95% CI = -0.04, -0.01) decline (difference in β coefficients = 0.03; 95% CI = 0.01, 0.05).
Why it matters
This cohort study found that higher cardiovascular and stroke risk scores were associated with greater 10-year cognitive decline, and these scores showed slightly stronger associations than a dementia risk score. The findings suggest that vascular risk factors may help predict cognitive decline in late middle age.
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Study details
- Study designcohort study
- Evidence strengthModerate
How this study scored 61/100
Published in a leading specialty journal, and it is a cohort study following people over time. Scored zero for sample size, effect reported, studied in people and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 9 / 10 | Tier 2 — leading specialty journal (Neurology) |
| Journal's citation record | 4 / 4 | Neurology: journal h-index 525 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 7 / 12 | A cohort study following people over time |
| Strength of evidence | 3 / 5 | Rated “moderate” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 1 / 5 | 2013 — within 20 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 0 / 4 | Participant count not stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Effect reported | 0 / 3 | No effect size reported — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Studied in people | 0 / 3 | Not stated whether this was studied in people — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | 5 / 7 | Cited 197 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 3 / 5 | 13.1 citations a year over 15 year(s) since 2013 |
| Impact for its field and year | 4 / 6 | Cited 12.2× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 3 / 6 | Cited by 13 other studies in this library |
| Still being cited | 2 / 4 | Cited 29 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 4 / 4 | Last-listed author Archana Singh‐Manoux: h-index 124 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 2 / 3 | University College London: institution h-index 2,029 (OpenAlex) |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 2 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 4 institution(s) in 2 countries |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 23547265) |
| Free to read | 0 / 2 | Behind a paywall — scores zero |
| Total | 61 / 100 | — |
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Read the original
- DOI: 10.1212/wnl.0b013e31828ab370
- PubMed: 23547265
- Original source →
- Free full text: PubMed Central →
Full text: free to read — OpenAlex lists this copy as free to read: the link above (checked 6 Feb 1020).
Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. The record names 7 authors; APA and Vancouver show the first six, BibTeX and the downloads carry all of them. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
APA 7th
Kaffashian, S., Dugravot, A., Elbaz, A., Shipley, M. J., Sabia, S., Kivimäki, M., et al. (2013). Predicting cognitive decline: a dementia risk score vs. the Framingham vascular risk scores. Neurology. https://doi.org/10.1212/wnl.0b013e31828ab370
Vancouver
Kaffashian S, Dugravot A, Elbaz A, Shipley MJ, Sabia S, Kivimäki M, et al. Predicting cognitive decline: a dementia risk score vs. the Framingham vascular risk scores. Neurology. 2013. doi:10.1212/wnl.0b013e31828ab370. PMID: 23547265.
BibTeX
@article{kaffashian2013-23547265,
author = {Kaffashian, S. and Dugravot, A. and Elbaz, A. and Shipley, M. J. and Sabia, S. and Kivimäki, M. and Singh-Manoux, A.},
title = {{Predicting cognitive decline: a dementia risk score vs. the Framingham vascular risk scores}},
journal = {Neurology},
year = {2013},
doi = {10.1212/wnl.0b013e31828ab370},
pmid = {23547265},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1212/wnl.0b013e31828ab370}
}
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