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Clinical prediction of Alzheimer disease dementia across the spectrum of mild cognitive impairment
Dickerson BC, Sperling RA, Hyman BT, Albert MS, Blacker D.. Archives of general psychiatry, 2007-12-01
Topic: Amyloid, tau and blood-test diagnosis
Objective To determine whether clinical assessment methods that grade the severity of impairments within the spectrum of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) can predict clinical course, particularly among very mildly impaired individuals who do not meet formal MCI criteria as implemented in clinical trials. Participants From a longitudinal study of normal (Clinical Dementia Rating [CDR] = 0; n = 77) and mildly impaired (CDR = 0.5; n = 167) participants with 5 or more annual clinical assessments, baseline level of cognitive impairment in daily life was graded using CDR sum of boxes (CDR-SB) and level of cognitive performance impairment was graded using neuropsychological test scores. Main outcome measures Five-year outcome measures included (1) probable Alzheimer disease (AD) diagnosis and (2) clinical "decline" (CDR-SB increase > or = 1.0).
Key findings
- Participants From a longitudinal study of normal (Clinical Dementia Rating [CDR] = 0; n = 77) and mildly impaired (CDR = 0.5; n = 167) participants with 5 or more annual clinical assessments, baseline level of cognitive impairment in daily life was graded using CDR sum of boxes (CDR-SB) and level of cognitive performance impairment was graded using neuropsychological test scores.
- Main outcome measures Five-year outcome measures included (1) probable Alzheimer disease (AD) diagnosis and (2) clinical "decline" (CDR-SB increase > or = 1.0).
- Logistic regression models were used to assess the ability of baseline measures to predict outcomes in the full sample and separately in the subjects who did not meet formal MCI criteria as implemented in a multicenter clinical trial (n = 125; "very mild cognitive impairment" [vMCI]).
- Results The presence of both higher CDR-SB and lower verbal memory and executive function at baseline predicted greater likelihood of probable AD and decline.
Why it matters
This longitudinal study looked at whether grading the severity of mild cognitive impairment can predict who will later be diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease dementia. It is about improving prediction of decline, not about treating, curing or preventing the disease.
Study details
- Study designlongitudinal study
- Participants77
- Effect sizeor = 1.0
- Evidence strengthModerate
How this study scored 63/100
Published in a peer-reviewed journal, and it is a longitudinal study following the same people over time. Scored zero for randomised / blinded because the record does not state it.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 7 / 10 | Tier 3 — peer-reviewed journal (Archives of general psychiatry) |
| Journal's citation record | 4 / 4 | Archives of General Psychiatry: journal h-index 543 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 7 / 12 | A longitudinal study following the same people over time |
| Strength of evidence | 3 / 5 | Rated “moderate” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 1 / 5 | 2007 — within 20 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 1 / 4 | 77 participants |
| Effect reported | 2 / 3 | Effect reported as a number, without an interval or test |
| Studied in people | 3 / 3 | Studied in people (participant count stated) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | 5 / 7 | Cited 166 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 2 / 5 | 7.9 citations a year over 21 year(s) since 2007 |
| Impact for its field and year | 3 / 6 | Cited 6.2× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 3 / 6 | Cited by 19 other studies in this library |
| Still being cited | 2 / 4 | Cited 15 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 3 / 4 | Last-listed author Deborah Blacker: h-index 86 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 3 / 3 | Harvard University: institution h-index 3,235 (OpenAlex) |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 2 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 4 institution(s) in 1 country |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 18056553) |
| Free to read | 0 / 2 | Behind a paywall — scores zero |
| Total | 63 / 100 | — |
What each of these 20 components measures, and what this score is not →
Read the original
- DOI: 10.1001/archpsyc.64.12.1443
- PubMed: 18056553
- Original source →
- Free full text: PubMed Central →
Full text: free to read — OpenAlex lists this copy as free to read: the link above (checked 6 Feb 1020).
Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
APA 7th
Dickerson, B. C., Sperling, R. A., Hyman, B. T., Albert, M. S., & Blacker, D. (2007). Clinical prediction of Alzheimer disease dementia across the spectrum of mild cognitive impairment. Archives of general psychiatry. https://doi.org/10.1001/archpsyc.64.12.1443
Vancouver
Dickerson BC, Sperling RA, Hyman BT, Albert MS, Blacker D. Clinical prediction of Alzheimer disease dementia across the spectrum of mild cognitive impairment. Archives of general psychiatry. 2007. doi:10.1001/archpsyc.64.12.1443. PMID: 18056553.
BibTeX
@article{dickerson2007-18056553,
author = {Dickerson, B. C. and Sperling, R. A. and Hyman, B. T. and Albert, M. S. and Blacker, D.},
title = {{Clinical prediction of Alzheimer disease dementia across the spectrum of mild cognitive impairment}},
journal = {Archives of general psychiatry},
year = {2007},
doi = {10.1001/archpsyc.64.12.1443},
pmid = {18056553},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1001/archpsyc.64.12.1443}
}
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