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Individualized prediction of clinical progression to dementia using plasma biomarkers in non-demented elderly
Madison I. J. Honey, Ingrid S. van Maurik, Argonde C. van Harten, Mariam Gouda, Mardou S. S. A. van Leeuwenstijn, Arenda Mank, Calvin Trieu, Vincent Bouteloup et al.. Alzheimer s Research & Therapy, 2025-12-03
Topic: Risk, prevention and care in population studies
During follow-up 20 SCD and 99 MCI patients developed dementia. For MCI patients who progressed to any form of dementia, plasma GFAP contributed on top of age, sex, and MMSE score in the parsimonious individualized prognostic model (C-index = 0.69 [95%CI = 0.63; 0.76]). With AD-dementia as the outcome, GFAP and pTau181 were selected in the parsimonious model on top of the demographic variables (C-index = 0.71 [95%CI = 0.65; 0.76]). In the subset of 197 MCI individuals with pTau217 measurements, pTau217 was selected in the parsimonious model on top of the demographic variables (C-index = 0.75 [95%CI = 0.69; 0.79]). External validation demonstrated that the models are robust in a memory clinic setting. Our prediction models have utility for clinical practice to calculate progression probabilities for development of dementia in individual patients living with MCI over a 1-, 3- and 5-year time period.
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APA 7th
Honey, M. I. J., van Maurik, I. S., van Harten, A. C., Gouda, M., van Leeuwenstijn, M. S. S. A., Mank, A., et al. (2025). Individualized prediction of clinical progression to dementia using plasma biomarkers in non-demented elderly. Alzheimer s Research & Therapy. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13195-025-01925-1
Vancouver
Honey MIJ, van Maurik IS, van Harten AC, Gouda M, van Leeuwenstijn MSSA, Mank A, et al. Individualized prediction of clinical progression to dementia using plasma biomarkers in non-demented elderly. Alzheimer s Research & Therapy. 2025. doi:10.1186/s13195-025-01925-1. PMID: 41339948.
BibTeX
@article{honey2025-41339948,
author = {Honey, Madison I. J. and van Maurik, Ingrid S. and van Harten, Argonde C. and Gouda, Mariam and van Leeuwenstijn, Mardou S. S. A. and Mank, Arenda and Trieu, Calvin and Bouteloup, Vincent and others},
title = {{Individualized prediction of clinical progression to dementia using plasma biomarkers in non-demented elderly}},
journal = {Alzheimer s Research \& Therapy},
year = {2025},
doi = {10.1186/s13195-025-01925-1},
pmid = {41339948},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1186/s13195-025-01925-1}
}
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. The record's author list ends in “et al.”, so not every author is named. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
Key findings
- During follow-up 20 SCD and 99 MCI patients developed dementia.
- For MCI patients who progressed to any form of dementia, plasma GFAP contributed on top of age, sex, and MMSE score in the parsimonious individualized prognostic model (C-index = 0.69 [95%CI = 0.63; 0.76]).
- With AD-dementia as the outcome, GFAP and pTau181 were selected in the parsimonious model on top of the demographic variables (C-index = 0.71 [95%CI = 0.65; 0.76]).
- In the subset of 197 MCI individuals with pTau217 measurements, pTau217 was selected in the parsimonious model on top of the demographic variables (C-index = 0.75 [95%CI = 0.69; 0.79]).
- External validation demonstrated that the models are robust in a memory clinic setting.
Why it matters
In non-demented elderly people, plasma GFAP, pTau181, and pTau217 improved individualized prediction of progression from MCI to dementia on top of age, sex, and MMSE, with models validated in a memory clinic setting. These models can estimate progression probabilities over 1, 3, and 5 years, but they are prognostic tools, not treatments, cures, or prevention.
Study details
- Participants184
- Evidence strengthModerate
How this study scored 46/100
Published in a peer-reviewed journal. Scored zero for study design, effect reported and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 7 / 10 | Tier 3 — peer-reviewed journal (Alzheimer s Research & Therapy) |
| Journal's citation record | 1 / 4 | Alzheimer s Research & Therapy: journal h-index 146 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 0 / 12 | No study design recorded — scores zero, not guessed (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Strength of evidence | 3 / 5 | Rated “moderate” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 4 / 5 | 2025 — within 3 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 2 / 4 | 184 participants |
| Effect reported | 0 / 3 | No effect size reported — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Studied in people | 3 / 3 | Studied in people (participant count stated) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | 1 / 7 | Cited 3 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 1 / 5 | 1.0 citations a year over 3 year(s) since 2025 |
| Impact for its field and year | 2 / 6 | Cited 1.9× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 0 / 6 | No other study in this library cites it |
| Still being cited | 1 / 4 | Cited 3 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 2 / 4 | Last-listed author Inge M.W. Verberk: h-index 30 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 2 / 3 | Inserm: institution h-index 1,988 (OpenAlex) |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 3 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 15 institution(s) in 4 countries |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 41339948) |
| Free to read | 2 / 2 | Free to read |
| Total | 46 / 100 | — |
What each of these 20 components measures, and what this score is not →
Read the original
- DOI: 10.1186/s13195-025-01925-1
- PubMed: 41339948
- Original source →
- Free full text: Alzheimer s Research & Therapy →
Full text: free to read — OpenAlex lists this copy as free to read: the link above (checked 6 Feb 1020).
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