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Brain atrophy rates predict subsequent clinical conversion in normal elderly and amnestic MCI
Jack CR, Shiung MM, Weigand SD, O'Brien PC, Gunter JL, Boeve BF, Knopman DS, Smith GE et al.. Neurology, 2005-10-01
Topic: Risk, prevention and care in population studies
Objective To test the hypothesis that the atrophy rate measured from serial MRI studies is associated with time to subsequent clinical conversion to a more impaired state in both cognitively healthy elderly subjects and in subjects with amnestic mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Methods Ninety-one healthy elderly patients and 72 patients with amnestic MCI who met inclusion criteria were identified from the Mayo Alzheimer's Disease Research Center and Alzheimer's Disease Patient Registry. Atrophy rates of four different brain structures--hippocampus, entorhinal cortex, whole brain, and ventricle--were measured from a pair of MRI studies separated by 1 to 2 years. The time of the second scan marked the beginning of the clinical observation period. Results During follow-up, 13 healthy patients converted to MCI or Alzheimer disease (AD), whereas 39 MCI subjects converted to AD. Among those healthy at baseline, only larger ventricular annual percent volume change (APC) was associated with a higher risk of conversion (hazard ratio for a 1-SD increase 1.9, p = 0.03). Among MCI subjects, both greater ventricular volume APC (hazard ratio for a 1-SD increase 1.7, p Discussion Higher whole brain and ventricle atrophy rates 1 to 2 years before baseline are associated with an increased hazard of conversion to a more impaired state. Combining a measure of hippocampal volume at baseline with a measure of either whole brain or ventricle atrophy rates from serial MRI scans provides complimentary predictive information about the hazard of subsequent conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer disease. However, overlap among those who did vs those who did not convert indicate that these measures are unlikely to provide absolute prognostic information for individual patients.
Key findings
- Objective To test the hypothesis that the atrophy rate measured from serial MRI studies is associated with time to subsequent clinical conversion to a more impaired state in both cognitively healthy elderly subjects and in subjects with amnestic mild cognitive impairment (MCI).
- Results During follow-up, 13 healthy patients converted to MCI or Alzheimer disease (AD), whereas 39 MCI subjects converted to AD.
- Among those healthy at baseline, only larger ventricular annual percent volume change (APC) was associated with a higher risk of conversion (hazard ratio for a 1-SD increase 1.9, p = 0.03).
- Among MCI subjects, both greater ventricular volume APC (hazard ratio for a 1-SD increase 1.7, p Discussion Higher whole brain and ventricle atrophy rates 1 to 2 years before baseline are associated with an increased hazard of conversion to a more impaired state.
- However, overlap among those who did vs those who did not convert indicate that these measures are unlikely to provide absolute prognostic information for individual patients.
Why it matters
In healthy elderly and amnestic MCI subjects, higher brain atrophy rates measured from serial MRI 1 to 2 years before baseline were associated with increased risk of later conversion to a more impaired state. Combining a baseline hippocampal volume measure with an atrophy rate measure improved prediction.
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Study details
- Participants72
- Evidence strengthLow
How this study scored 57/100
Published in a leading specialty journal. Scored zero for study design, effect reported and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 9 / 10 | Tier 2 — leading specialty journal (Neurology) |
| Journal's citation record | 4 / 4 | Neurology: journal h-index 525 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 0 / 12 | No study design recorded — scores zero, not guessed (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Strength of evidence | 1 / 5 | Rated “low” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 1 / 5 | 2005 — older than 20 years, still counted |
| Sample size | 1 / 4 | 72 participants |
| Effect reported | 0 / 3 | No effect size reported — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Studied in people | 3 / 3 | Studied in people (participant count stated) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | 6 / 7 | Cited 499 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 4 / 5 | 21.7 citations a year over 23 year(s) since 2005 |
| Impact for its field and year | 4 / 6 | Cited 15.5× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 4 / 6 | Cited by 65 other studies in this library |
| Still being cited | 2 / 4 | Cited 23 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 4 / 4 | Last-listed author Ronald Carl Petersen: h-index 209 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 2 / 3 | Mayo Clinic: institution h-index 1,606 (OpenAlex) |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 0 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 1 institution(s) in 1 country — scores zero (affiliation lists can be incomplete) |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 16247049) |
| Free to read | 0 / 2 | Behind a paywall — scores zero |
| Total | 57 / 100 | — |
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Read the original
- DOI: 10.1212/01.wnl.0000180958.22678.91
- PubMed: 16247049
- Original source →
- Free full text: PubMed Central →
Full text: free to read — OpenAlex lists this copy as free to read: the link above (checked 6 Feb 1020).
Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. The record's author list ends in “et al.”, so not every author is named. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
APA 7th
Jack, C. R., Shiung, M. M., Weigand, S. D., O'Brien, P. C., Gunter, J. L., Boeve, B. F., et al. (2005). Brain atrophy rates predict subsequent clinical conversion in normal elderly and amnestic MCI. Neurology. https://doi.org/10.1212/01.wnl.0000180958.22678.91
Vancouver
Jack CR, Shiung MM, Weigand SD, O'Brien PC, Gunter JL, Boeve BF, et al. Brain atrophy rates predict subsequent clinical conversion in normal elderly and amnestic MCI. Neurology. 2005. doi:10.1212/01.wnl.0000180958.22678.91. PMID: 16247049.
BibTeX
@article{jack2005-16247049,
author = {Jack, C. R. and Shiung, M. M. and Weigand, S. D. and O'Brien, P. C. and Gunter, J. L. and Boeve, B. F. and Knopman, D. S. and Smith, G. E. and others},
title = {{Brain atrophy rates predict subsequent clinical conversion in normal elderly and amnestic MCI}},
journal = {Neurology},
year = {2005},
doi = {10.1212/01.wnl.0000180958.22678.91},
pmid = {16247049},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1212/01.wnl.0000180958.22678.91}
}
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