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Baseline and longitudinal patterns of brain atrophy in MCI patients, and their use in prediction of short-term conversion to AD: results from ADNI
Misra C, Fan Y, Davatzikos C.. NeuroImage, 2008-11-05
Topic: Risk, prevention and care in population studies
High-dimensional pattern classification was applied to baseline and multiple follow-up MRI scans of the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) participants with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), in order to investigate the potential of predicting short-term conversion to Alzheimer's Disease (AD) on an individual basis. MCI participants that converted to AD (average follow-up 15 months) displayed significantly lower volumes in a number of grey matter (GM) regions, as well as in the white matter (WM). They also displayed more pronounced periventricular small-vessel pathology, as well as an increased rate of increase of such pathology. Individual person analysis was performed using a pattern classifier previously constructed from AD patients and cognitively normal (CN) individuals to yield an abnormality score that is positive for AD-like brains and negative otherwise. The abnormality scores measured from MCI non-converters (MCI-NC) followed a bimodal distribution, reflecting the heterogeneity of this group, whereas they were positive in almost all MCI converters (MCI-C), indicating extensive patterns of AD-like brain atrophy in almost all MCI-C. Both MCI subgroups had similar MMSE scores at baseline. A more specialized classifier constructed to differentiate converters from non-converters based on their baseline scans provided good classification accuracy reaching 81.5%, evaluated via cross-validation. These pattern classification schemes, which distill spatial patterns of atrophy to a single abnormality score, offer promise as biomarkers of AD and as predictors of subsequent clinical progression, on an individual patient basis.
Key findings
- MCI participants that converted to AD (average follow-up 15 months) displayed significantly lower volumes in a number of grey matter (GM) regions, as well as in the white matter (WM).
Why it matters
Using MRI pattern classification, this study found that MCI participants who converted to Alzheimer's had significantly lower grey and white matter volumes and that a classifier could distinguish converters from non-converters with good accuracy. This supports imaging for predicting short-term conversion, but it is a diagnostic prediction tool, not a therapy.
Study details
- Effect size81.5%
- Evidence strengthLow
How this study scored 53/100
Published in a peer-reviewed journal. Scored zero for study design, sample size, studied in people and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 7 / 10 | Tier 3 — peer-reviewed journal (NeuroImage) |
| Journal's citation record | 4 / 4 | NeuroImage: journal h-index 523 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 0 / 12 | No study design recorded — scores zero, not guessed (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Strength of evidence | 1 / 5 | Rated “low” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 1 / 5 | 2009 — within 20 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 0 / 4 | Participant count not stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Effect reported | 2 / 3 | Effect reported as a number, without an interval or test |
| Studied in people | 0 / 3 | Not stated whether this was studied in people — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | 6 / 7 | Cited 558 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 4 / 5 | 29.4 citations a year over 19 year(s) since 2009 |
| Impact for its field and year | 4 / 6 | Cited 18.2× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 4 / 6 | Cited by 34 other studies in this library |
| Still being cited | 2 / 4 | Cited 49 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 4 / 4 | Last-listed author Christos A. Davatzikos: h-index 124 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 2 / 3 | University of Pennsylvania: institution h-index 1,859 (OpenAlex) |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 0 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 1 institution(s) in 1 country — scores zero (affiliation lists can be incomplete) |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 19027862) |
| Free to read | 0 / 2 | Behind a paywall — scores zero |
| Total | 53 / 100 | — |
What each of these 20 components measures, and what this score is not →
Read the original
- DOI: 10.1016/j.neuroimage.2008.10.031
- PubMed: 19027862
- Original source →
- Free full text: PubMed Central →
Full text: free to read — OpenAlex lists this copy as free to read: the link above (checked 6 Feb 1020).
Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
APA 7th
Misra, C., Fan, Y., & Davatzikos, C. (2009). Baseline and longitudinal patterns of brain atrophy in MCI patients, and their use in prediction of short-term conversion to AD: results from ADNI. NeuroImage. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neuroimage.2008.10.031
Vancouver
Misra C, Fan Y, Davatzikos C. Baseline and longitudinal patterns of brain atrophy in MCI patients, and their use in prediction of short-term conversion to AD: results from ADNI. NeuroImage. 2009. doi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2008.10.031. PMID: 19027862.
BibTeX
@article{misra2009-19027862,
author = {Misra, C. and Fan, Y. and Davatzikos, C.},
title = {{Baseline and longitudinal patterns of brain atrophy in MCI patients, and their use in prediction of short-term conversion to AD: results from ADNI}},
journal = {NeuroImage},
year = {2009},
doi = {10.1016/j.neuroimage.2008.10.031},
pmid = {19027862},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neuroimage.2008.10.031}
}
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