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The lifetime risk of stroke: estimates from the Framingham Study
Seshadri S, Beiser A, Kelly-Hayes M, Kase CS, Au R, Kannel WB, Wolf PA.. Stroke, 2006-01-05
Topic: Risk, prevention and care in population studies
Background and purpose The lifetime risk (LTR) of stroke has not been reported for the United States population; such data would assist public education and health planning. Methods Framingham Original cohort participants (n=4897) who were stroke- and dementia-free at 55 years of age were followed biennially for up to 51 years (115 146 person years). We estimated the sex-specific 10-, 20-, and 30-year risks and LTR of developing a stroke by baseline age and blood pressure (BP) and compared it with the risk of developing Alzheimer disease (AD). Results A total of 875 participants (522 women) developed a first-ever stroke; 749 (448 women) had an ischemic stroke. LTR of stroke was high and remained similar at ages 55, 65, and 75 years, approximating 1 in 5 for women and 1 in 6 for men. Participants with a normal BP ( or =140/90 mm Hg). The LTR of AD at age 65 (292 participants; 211 women) approximated 1 in 5 for women and 1 in 10 for men. The LTR of developing either stroke or dementia approximated 1 in 3 in both sexes. Conclusions The LTR of stroke in middle-aged adults is 1 in 6 or more, which is equal to or greater than the LTR of AD. Women had a higher risk because of longer life expectancy. BP is a significant determinant of the LTR of stroke, and promotion of normal BP levels in the community might be expected to substantially reduce this risk.
Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
APA 7th
Seshadri, S., Beiser, A., Kelly-Hayes, M., Kase, C. S., Au, R., Kannel, W. B., et al. (2006). The lifetime risk of stroke: estimates from the Framingham Study. Stroke. https://doi.org/10.1161/01.str.0000199613.38911.b2
Vancouver
Seshadri S, Beiser A, Kelly-Hayes M, Kase CS, Au R, Kannel WB, et al. The lifetime risk of stroke: estimates from the Framingham Study. Stroke. 2006. doi:10.1161/01.str.0000199613.38911.b2. PMID: 16397184.
BibTeX
@article{seshadri2006-16397184,
author = {Seshadri, S. and Beiser, A. and Kelly-Hayes, M. and Kase, C. S. and Au, R. and Kannel, W. B. and Wolf, P. A.},
title = {{The lifetime risk of stroke: estimates from the Framingham Study}},
journal = {Stroke},
year = {2006},
doi = {10.1161/01.str.0000199613.38911.b2},
pmid = {16397184},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1161/01.str.0000199613.38911.b2}
}
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. The record names 7 authors; APA and Vancouver show the first six, BibTeX and the downloads carry all of them. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
Key findings
- Results A total of 875 participants (522 women) developed a first-ever stroke; 749 (448 women) had an ischemic stroke.
- Women had a higher risk because of longer life expectancy.
- BP is a significant determinant of the LTR of stroke, and promotion of normal BP levels in the community might be expected to substantially reduce this risk.
Why it matters
This study estimated that the lifetime risk of stroke in middle-aged adults is about 1 in 6 or more, similar to or greater than the lifetime risk of Alzheimer's disease, and that blood pressure is a significant determinant of stroke risk. It is about stroke risk and does not test any treatment, cure, or prevention for Alzheimer's disease.
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Study details
- Participants4,897
- Evidence strengthModerate
How this study scored 59/100
Published in a peer-reviewed journal. Scored zero for study design, effect reported and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 7 / 10 | Tier 3 — peer-reviewed journal (Stroke) |
| Journal's citation record | 3 / 4 | Stroke: journal h-index 455 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 0 / 12 | No study design recorded — scores zero, not guessed (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Strength of evidence | 3 / 5 | Rated “moderate” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 1 / 5 | 2006 — older than 20 years, still counted |
| Sample size | 3 / 4 | 4,897 participants |
| Effect reported | 0 / 3 | No effect size reported — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Studied in people | 3 / 3 | Studied in people (participant count stated) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | 6 / 7 | Cited 706 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 4 / 5 | 32.1 citations a year over 22 year(s) since 2006 |
| Impact for its field and year | 5 / 6 | Cited 22.6× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 4 / 6 | Cited by 30 other studies in this library |
| Still being cited | 3 / 4 | Cited 68 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 4 / 4 | Last-listed author Philip A. Wolf: h-index 149 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 1 / 3 | Boston University: institution h-index 1,456 (OpenAlex) |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 0 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 1 institution(s) in 1 country — scores zero (affiliation lists can be incomplete) |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 16397184) |
| Free to read | 0 / 2 | Behind a paywall — scores zero |
| Total | 59 / 100 | — |
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