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The aging of America. Impact on health care costs
Schneider EL, Guralnik JM.. JAMA, 1990-05-01
Topic: Health services, long-term care and technology
The rapid growth of the oldest age groups will have a major impact on future health care costs. We use current US Census Bureau projections for the growth of our oldest age groups to project future costs for Medicare, nursing homes, dementia, and hip fractures. Without major changes in the health of our older population, these health care costs will escalate enormously, in large part as a result of the projected growth of the "oldest old," those aged 85 years and above. Medicare costs for the oldest old may increase sixfold by the year 2040 (in constant 1987 dollars). It is unlikely that these projected increases in health care costs will be restrained solely by cost-containment strategies. Successful containment of these health care costs will be related to our ability to prevent and/or cure those age-dependent diseases and disorders that will produce the greatest needs for long-term care.
Key findings
- Without major changes in the health of our older population, these health care costs will escalate enormously, in large part as a result of the projected growth of the "oldest old," those aged 85 years and above.
Study details
- Evidence strengthLow
How this study scored 41/100
Published in a top-tier journal. Scored zero for study design, sample size, effect reported, studied in people and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it. We have no data on journal's citation record, times cited, citations per year, impact for its field and year, cited by studies here, still being cited, senior author's track record, institution's track record and multi-centre collaboration, so those were left out: it earned 24 of the 58 points we could judge it on, which is 41 out of 100.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 10 / 10 | Tier 1 — top-tier general journal (JAMA) |
| Journal's citation record | — / 4 | No journal record from OpenAlex — left out of this score |
| Study design | 0 / 12 | No study design recorded — scores zero, not guessed (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Strength of evidence | 1 / 5 | Rated “low” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 1 / 5 | 1990 — older than 20 years, still counted |
| Sample size | 0 / 4 | Participant count not stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Effect reported | 0 / 3 | No effect size reported — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Studied in people | 0 / 3 | Not stated whether this was studied in people — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | — / 7 | No citation count (not found in OpenAlex) — left out of this score |
| Citations per year | — / 5 | No citation count or no year — left out of this score |
| Impact for its field and year | — / 6 | No field-weighted citation impact (OpenAlex has none yet) — left out of this score |
| Cited by studies here | — / 6 | Not yet checked against this library's citation graph — left out of this score |
| Still being cited | — / 4 | No yearly citation counts — left out of this score |
| Senior author's track record | — / 4 | Senior author's record not available — left out of this score |
| Institution's track record | — / 3 | No institution listed in OpenAlex — left out of this score |
| Multi-centre collaboration | — / 3 | Institutions not listed — left out of this score |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 2109105) |
| Free to read | 0 / 2 | Behind a paywall — scores zero |
| Points | 24 / 58 | Scored on 11 of 20 parts. We have no data for the rest, so they are left out: 24 of the 58 points we could judge it on is 41 out of 100. |
| Total | 41 / 100 | — |
What each of these 20 components measures, and what this score is not →
Read the original
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Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
APA 7th
Schneider, E. L., & Guralnik, J. M. (1990). The aging of America. Impact on health care costs. JAMA. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.1990.03440170057036
Vancouver
Schneider EL, Guralnik JM. The aging of America. Impact on health care costs. JAMA. 1990. doi:10.1001/jama.1990.03440170057036. PMID: 2109105.
BibTeX
@article{schneider1990-2109105,
author = {Schneider, E. L. and Guralnik, J. M.},
title = {{The aging of America. Impact on health care costs}},
journal = {JAMA},
year = {1990},
doi = {10.1001/jama.1990.03440170057036},
pmid = {2109105},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.1990.03440170057036}
}
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