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Multiple chronic conditions and life expectancy: a life table analysis
DuGoff EH, Canudas-Romo V, Buttorff C, Leff B, Anderson GF.. Medical care, 2014-08-01
Topic: Health services, long-term care and technology
Background The number of people living with multiple chronic conditions is increasing, but we know little about the impact of multimorbidity on life expectancy. Objective We analyze life expectancy in Medicare beneficiaries by number of chronic conditions. Research design A retrospective cohort study using single-decrement period life tables. Subjects Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries (N=1,372,272) aged 67 and older as of January 1, 2008. Measures Our primary outcome measure is life expectancy. We categorize study subjects by sex, race, selected chronic conditions (heart disease, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, stroke, and Alzheimer disease), and number of comorbid conditions. Comorbidity was measured as a count of conditions collected by Chronic Conditions Warehouse and the Charlson Comorbidity Index. Results Life expectancy decreases with each additional chronic condition. A 67-year-old individual with no chronic conditions will live on average 22.6 additional years. A 67-year-old individual with 5 chronic conditions and ≥10 chronic conditions will live 7.7 fewer years and 17.6 fewer years, respectively. The average marginal decline in life expectancy is 1.8 years with each additional chronic condition-ranging from 0.4 fewer years with the first condition to 2.6 fewer years with the sixth condition. These results are consistent by sex and race. We observe differences in life expectancy by selected conditions at 67, but these differences diminish with age and increasing numbers of comorbid conditions. Conclusions Social Security and Medicare actuaries should account for the growing number of beneficiaries with multiple chronic conditions when determining population projections and trust fund solvency.
Key findings
- Results Life expectancy decreases with each additional chronic condition.
- These results are consistent by sex and race.
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Study details
- Study designcohort study
- Participants1,372,272
- Evidence strengthModerate
How this study scored 64/100
Published in a peer-reviewed journal, and it is a cohort study following people over time. Scored zero for effect reported and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it. We have no data on journal's citation record, times cited, citations per year, impact for its field and year, cited by studies here, still being cited, senior author's track record, institution's track record and multi-centre collaboration, so those were left out: it earned 37 of the 58 points we could judge it on, which is 64 out of 100.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 7 / 10 | Tier 3 — peer-reviewed journal (Medical care) |
| Journal's citation record | — / 4 | No journal record from OpenAlex — left out of this score |
| Study design | 7 / 12 | A cohort study following people over time |
| Strength of evidence | 3 / 5 | Rated “moderate” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 1 / 5 | 2014 — within 20 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 4 / 4 | 1,372,272 participants |
| Effect reported | 0 / 3 | No effect size reported — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Studied in people | 3 / 3 | Studied in people (participant count stated) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | — / 7 | No citation count (not found in OpenAlex) — left out of this score |
| Citations per year | — / 5 | No citation count or no year — left out of this score |
| Impact for its field and year | — / 6 | No field-weighted citation impact (OpenAlex has none yet) — left out of this score |
| Cited by studies here | — / 6 | Not yet checked against this library's citation graph — left out of this score |
| Still being cited | — / 4 | No yearly citation counts — left out of this score |
| Senior author's track record | — / 4 | Senior author's record not available — left out of this score |
| Institution's track record | — / 3 | No institution listed in OpenAlex — left out of this score |
| Multi-centre collaboration | — / 3 | Institutions not listed — left out of this score |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 25023914) |
| Free to read | 0 / 2 | Behind a paywall — scores zero |
| Points | 37 / 58 | Scored on 11 of 20 parts. We have no data for the rest, so they are left out: 37 of the 58 points we could judge it on is 64 out of 100. |
| Total | 64 / 100 | — |
What each of these 20 components measures, and what this score is not →
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APA 7th
DuGoff, E. H., Canudas-Romo, V., Buttorff, C., Leff, B., & Anderson, G. F. (2014). Multiple chronic conditions and life expectancy: a life table analysis. Medical care. https://doi.org/10.1097/mlr.0000000000000166
Vancouver
DuGoff EH, Canudas-Romo V, Buttorff C, Leff B, Anderson GF. Multiple chronic conditions and life expectancy: a life table analysis. Medical care. 2014. doi:10.1097/mlr.0000000000000166. PMID: 25023914.
BibTeX
@article{dugoff2014-25023914,
author = {DuGoff, E. H. and Canudas-Romo, V. and Buttorff, C. and Leff, B. and Anderson, G. F.},
title = {{Multiple chronic conditions and life expectancy: a life table analysis}},
journal = {Medical care},
year = {2014},
doi = {10.1097/mlr.0000000000000166},
pmid = {25023914},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1097/mlr.0000000000000166}
}
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