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Risk of dementia and mild cognitive impairment in older people with subjective memory complaints: meta-analysis
Mitchell AJ, Beaumont H, Ferguson D, Yadegarfar M, Stubbs B.. Acta psychiatrica Scandinavica, 2014-09-13
Topic: Risk, prevention and care in population studies
Objective To investigate whether people with subjective memory complaints (SMC) but no objective deficits are at increased risk of developing mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia. Method Major electronic databases were searched till 03/2014, and a meta-analysis was conducted using inception cohort studies. Results Across 28 studies, there were 29,723 unique individuals (14,714 with SMC and 15,009 without SMC) (mean 71.6 years) followed on average for 4.8 years through to dementia. The annual conversion rate (ACR) of SMC to dementia was 2.33% (95% CI = 1.93%-2.78%) a relative risk (RR) of 2.07 (95% CI = 1.76-2.44) compared with those without SMC (n = 15,009). From 11 studies the ACR of developing MCI was 6.67% (95% CI = 4.70-8.95%). In long-term studies over 4 years, 14.1% (9.67-19.1%) of people with SMC developed dementia and 26.6% (95% CI = 5.3-39.7) went on to develop MCI. The ACR from SMC to dementia and MCI were comparable in community and non-community settings. Conclusion Older people with SMC but no objective complaints are twice as likely to develop dementia as individuals without SMC. Approximately 2.3% and 6.6% of older people with SMC will progress to dementia and MCI per year.
Key findings
- Objective To investigate whether people with subjective memory complaints (SMC) but no objective deficits are at increased risk of developing mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia.
- Results Across 28 studies, there were 29,723 unique individuals (14,714 with SMC and 15,009 without SMC) (mean 71.6 years) followed on average for 4.8 years through to dementia.
- The annual conversion rate (ACR) of SMC to dementia was 2.33% (95% CI = 1.93%-2.78%) a relative risk (RR) of 2.07 (95% CI = 1.76-2.44) compared with those without SMC (n = 15,009).
Why it matters
This meta-analysis found that older people with subjective memory complaints but no objective deficits were about twice as likely to develop dementia as those without such complaints, with annual conversion rates of 2.33% to dementia and 6.67% to mild cognitive impairment. It identifies a group at higher risk but does not test any treatment, cure, or prevention.
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Study details
- Study designmeta-analysis
- Participants15,009
- Effect sizeor 4.8; 2.33%; 1.93%
- Evidence strengthHigh
How this study scored 80/100
Published in a peer-reviewed journal, and it is a meta-analysis pooling many studies.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 7 / 10 | Tier 3 — peer-reviewed journal (Acta psychiatrica Scandinavica) |
| Journal's citation record | 2 / 4 | Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica: journal h-index 239 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 12 / 12 | A meta-analysis pooling many studies |
| Strength of evidence | 5 / 5 | Rated “high” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 1 / 5 | 2014 — within 20 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 4 / 4 | 15,009 participants |
| Effect reported | 2 / 3 | Effect reported as a number, without an interval or test |
| Studied in people | 3 / 3 | Studied in people (participant count stated) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | A review of other studies — randomisation is not credited here |
| Times cited | 7 / 7 | Cited 1,169 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 5 / 5 | 83.5 citations a year over 14 year(s) since 2014 |
| Impact for its field and year | 5 / 6 | Cited 30.5× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 4 / 6 | Cited by 34 other studies in this library |
| Still being cited | 4 / 4 | Cited 361 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 4 / 4 | Last-listed author Brendon Stubbs: h-index 136 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 1 / 3 | University of Manchester: institution h-index 1,304 (OpenAlex) |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 2 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 5 institution(s) in 1 country |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 25219393) |
| Free to read | 0 / 2 | Behind a paywall — scores zero |
| Total | 80 / 100 | — |
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Read the original
- DOI: 10.1111/acps.12336
- PubMed: 25219393
- Original source →
- Free full text: Research Portal (King's College London) →
Full text: free to read — OpenAlex lists this copy as free to read: the link above (checked 6 Feb 1020).
Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
APA 7th
Mitchell, A. J., Beaumont, H., Ferguson, D., Yadegarfar, M., & Stubbs, B. (2014). Risk of dementia and mild cognitive impairment in older people with subjective memory complaints: meta-analysis. Acta psychiatrica Scandinavica. https://doi.org/10.1111/acps.12336
Vancouver
Mitchell AJ, Beaumont H, Ferguson D, Yadegarfar M, Stubbs B. Risk of dementia and mild cognitive impairment in older people with subjective memory complaints: meta-analysis. Acta psychiatrica Scandinavica. 2014. doi:10.1111/acps.12336. PMID: 25219393.
BibTeX
@article{mitchell2014-25219393,
author = {Mitchell, A. J. and Beaumont, H. and Ferguson, D. and Yadegarfar, M. and Stubbs, B.},
title = {{Risk of dementia and mild cognitive impairment in older people with subjective memory complaints: meta-analysis}},
journal = {Acta psychiatrica Scandinavica},
year = {2014},
doi = {10.1111/acps.12336},
pmid = {25219393},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/acps.12336}
}
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