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Predicting incident dementia 3-8 years after brief cognitive tests in the UK Biobank prospective study of 500,000 people
Calvin CM, Wilkinson T, Starr JM, Sudlow C, Hagenaars SP, Harris SE, Schnier C, Davies G et al.. Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association, 2019-10-13
Topic: Risk, prevention and care in population studies
Introduction Prospective studies reporting associations between cognitive performance and subsequent incident dementia have been subject to attrition bias. Furthermore, the extent to which established risk factors account for such associations requires further elucidation. Methods We used UK Biobank baseline cognitive data (n ≤ 488,130) and electronically linked hospital inpatient and death records during three- to eight-year follow-up, to estimate risk of total dementia (n = 1051), Alzheimer's disease (n = 352), and vascular dementia (n = 169) according to four brief cognitive tasks, with/without adjustment for constitutional and modifiable risk factors.
Key findings
- Furthermore, the extent to which established risk factors account for such associations requires further elucidation.
- Methods We used UK Biobank baseline cognitive data (n ≤ 488,130) and electronically linked hospital inpatient and death records during three- to eight-year follow-up, to estimate risk of total dementia (n = 1051), Alzheimer's disease (n = 352), and vascular dementia (n = 169) according to four brief cognitive tasks, with/without adjustment for constitutional and modifiable risk factors.
- Results We found associations of cognitive task performance with all-cause and cause-specific dementia (P Discussion This study offers robust evidence that brief cognitive testing could be a valuable addition to dementia prediction models.
Why it matters
This study looked at whether performance on brief cognitive tests predicts who will develop dementia three to eight years later, using data from a very large UK group. It also checked whether known risk factors explain those associations, which could inform how cognitive screening is used.
Study details
- Participants1,051
- Evidence strengthLow
How this study scored 54/100
Published in a leading specialty journal. Scored zero for study design, effect reported and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 9 / 10 | Tier 2 — leading specialty journal (Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association) |
| Journal's citation record | 2 / 4 | Alzheimer s & Dementia: journal h-index 228 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 0 / 12 | No study design recorded — scores zero, not guessed (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Strength of evidence | 1 / 5 | Rated “low” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 2 / 5 | 2019 — within 10 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 3 / 4 | 1,051 participants |
| Effect reported | 0 / 3 | No effect size reported — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Studied in people | 3 / 3 | Studied in people (participant count stated) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | 4 / 7 | Cited 47 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 2 / 5 | 5.2 citations a year over 9 year(s) since 2019 |
| Impact for its field and year | 3 / 6 | Cited 3.5× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 2 / 6 | Cited by 8 other studies in this library |
| Still being cited | 2 / 4 | Cited 19 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 4 / 4 | Last-listed author Ian J. Deary: h-index 200 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 2 / 3 | University of Oxford: institution h-index 2,205 (OpenAlex) |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 3 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 11 institution(s) in 1 country |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 31619348) |
| Free to read | 0 / 2 | Behind a paywall — scores zero |
| Total | 54 / 100 | — |
What each of these 20 components measures, and what this score is not →
Read the original
- DOI: 10.1016/j.jalz.2019.07.014
- PubMed: 31619348
- Original source →
- Free full text: Edinburgh Research Explorer (University of Edinburgh) →
Full text: free to read — OpenAlex lists this copy as free to read: the link above (checked 6 Feb 1020).
Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. The record's author list ends in “et al.”, so not every author is named. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
APA 7th
Calvin, C. M., Wilkinson, T., Starr, J. M., Sudlow, C., Hagenaars, S. P., Harris, S. E., et al. (2019). Predicting incident dementia 3-8 years after brief cognitive tests in the UK Biobank prospective study of 500,000 people. Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jalz.2019.07.014
Vancouver
Calvin CM, Wilkinson T, Starr JM, Sudlow C, Hagenaars SP, Harris SE, et al. Predicting incident dementia 3-8 years after brief cognitive tests in the UK Biobank prospective study of 500,000 people. Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association. 2019. doi:10.1016/j.jalz.2019.07.014. PMID: 31619348.
BibTeX
@article{calvin2019-31619348,
author = {Calvin, C. M. and Wilkinson, T. and Starr, J. M. and Sudlow, C. and Hagenaars, S. P. and Harris, S. E. and Schnier, C. and Davies, G. and others},
title = {{Predicting incident dementia 3-8 years after brief cognitive tests in the UK Biobank prospective study of 500,000 people}},
journal = {Alzheimer's \& dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association},
year = {2019},
doi = {10.1016/j.jalz.2019.07.014},
pmid = {31619348},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jalz.2019.07.014}
}
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