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Neuropsychological measures in normal individuals that predict subsequent cognitive decline
Blacker D, Lee H, Muzikansky A, Martin EC, Tanzi R, McArdle JJ, Moss M, Albert M.. Archives of neurology, 2007-06-01
Topic: Risk, prevention and care in population studies
Objective To examine neuropsychological measures among normal individuals that predict time to subsequent cognitive decline. Design Cognitive performance, as measured by 6 neuropsychological tests, was examined at baseline. Participants were followed up for approximately 5 years. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the neuropsychological measures at baseline that predicted time to progression from normal cognition to mild impairment. Comparable data also examined time to progression from mild impairment to a diagnosis of Alzheimer disease. Setting Community volunteer-based sample examined at a medical institution. Participants One hundred and seven individuals who were cognitively normal and 235 individuals with mild cognitive impairment at baseline. Main outcome measures Time to progression from normal cognition to mild impairment and time to progression from mild impairment to a diagnosis of Alzheimer disease. Results The risk of progressing from normal to mild impairment was considerably greater among those with lower scores on tests of episodic memory (eg, hazard ratio for a 1-SD decrease in the California Verbal Learning Test, 0.55; P Conclusions Episodic memory performance among normal individuals predicts time to progression to mild impairment while apolipoprotein E epsilon2 status is associated with lower risk of cognitive decline among normal individuals. Tests of both episodic memory and executive function are predictors of time to progression from mild impairment to a clinical diagnosis of Alzheimer disease.
Key findings
- Results The risk of progressing from normal to mild impairment was considerably greater among those with lower scores on tests of episodic memory (eg, hazard ratio for a 1-SD decrease in the California Verbal Learning Test, 0.55; P<.001).
Why it matters
Among cognitively normal individuals, lower scores on tests of episodic memory predicted progression to mild impairment, and apolipoprotein E epsilon2 status was associated with lower risk of cognitive decline. These findings concern prediction of cognitive decline, not treatment or prevention.
Study details
- Participants235
- Evidence strengthLow
How this study scored 52/100
Published in a peer-reviewed journal. Scored zero for study design, effect reported and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 7 / 10 | Tier 3 — peer-reviewed journal (Archives of neurology) |
| Journal's citation record | 3 / 4 | Archives of Neurology: journal h-index 353 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 0 / 12 | No study design recorded — scores zero, not guessed (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Strength of evidence | 1 / 5 | Rated “low” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 1 / 5 | 2007 — within 20 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 2 / 4 | 235 participants |
| Effect reported | 0 / 3 | No effect size reported — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Studied in people | 3 / 3 | Studied in people (participant count stated) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | 5 / 7 | Cited 261 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 3 / 5 | 12.4 citations a year over 21 year(s) since 2007 |
| Impact for its field and year | 4 / 6 | Cited 10.9× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 3 / 6 | Cited by 27 other studies in this library |
| Still being cited | 1 / 4 | Cited 11 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 3 / 4 | Last-listed author Marilyn Albert: h-index 89 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 3 / 3 | Harvard University: institution h-index 3,235 (OpenAlex) |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 1 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 2 institution(s) in 1 country |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 17562935) |
| Free to read | 0 / 2 | Behind a paywall — scores zero |
| Total | 52 / 100 | — |
What each of these 20 components measures, and what this score is not →
Read the original
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Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. The record names 8 authors; APA and Vancouver show the first six, BibTeX and the downloads carry all of them. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
APA 7th
Blacker, D., Lee, H., Muzikansky, A., Martin, E. C., Tanzi, R., McArdle, J. J., et al. (2007). Neuropsychological measures in normal individuals that predict subsequent cognitive decline. Archives of neurology. https://doi.org/10.1001/archneur.64.6.862
Vancouver
Blacker D, Lee H, Muzikansky A, Martin EC, Tanzi R, McArdle JJ, et al. Neuropsychological measures in normal individuals that predict subsequent cognitive decline. Archives of neurology. 2007. doi:10.1001/archneur.64.6.862. PMID: 17562935.
BibTeX
@article{blacker2007-17562935,
author = {Blacker, D. and Lee, H. and Muzikansky, A. and Martin, E. C. and Tanzi, R. and McArdle, J. J. and Moss, M. and Albert, M.},
title = {{Neuropsychological measures in normal individuals that predict subsequent cognitive decline}},
journal = {Archives of neurology},
year = {2007},
doi = {10.1001/archneur.64.6.862},
pmid = {17562935},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1001/archneur.64.6.862}
}
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