Home › Research › Digital health tools
How many people will need palliative care in Scotland by 2040? A mixed-method study of projected palliative care need and recommendations for service delivery
Finucane AM, Bone AE, Etkind S, Carr D, Meade R, Munoz-Arroyo R, Moine S, Iyayi-Igbinovia A et al.. BMJ open, 2021-02-03
Topic: Risk, prevention and care in population studies
Plain-language summary
Objective To estimate future palliative care need and complexity of need in Scotland, and to identify priorities for future service delivery. Design We estimated the prevalence of palliative care need by analysing the proportion of deaths from defined chronic progressive illnesses. We described linear projections up to 2040 using national death registry data and official mortality forecasts. An expert consultation and subsequent online consensus survey generated recommendations on meeting future palliative care need. Setting Scotland, population of 5.4 million. Participants All decedents in Scotland over 11 years (2007 to 2017). The consultation had 34 participants; 24 completed the consensus survey. Primary and secondary outcomes Estimates of past and future palliative care need in Scotland from 2007 up to 2040. Multimorbidity was operationalised as two or more registered causes of death from different disease groups (cancer, organ failure, dementia, other). Consultation and survey data were analysed descriptively. Results We project that by 2040, the number of people requiring palliative care will increase by at least 14%; and by 20% if we factor in multimorbidity. The number of people dying from multiple diseases associated with different disease groups is projected to increase from 27% of all deaths in 2017 to 43% by 2040. To address increased need and complexity, experts prioritised sustained investment in a national digital platform, roll-out of integrated electronic health and social care records; and approaches that remain person-centred. Conclusions By 2040 more people in Scotland are projected to die with palliative care needs, and the complexity of need will increase markedly. Service delivery models must adapt to serve growing demand and complexity associated with dying from multiple diseases from different disease groups. We need sustained investment in secure, accessible, integrated and person-centred health and social care digital systems, to improve care coordination and optimise palliative care for people across care settings.
What this study adds
Evidence grade: Low
The record lists 34 participants. This mixed-method study projects that by 2040, the number of people in Scotland requiring palliative care will increase by at least 14%, or 20% when factoring in multimorbidity. The proportion of people dying from multiple diseases from different groups is projected to rise from 27% in 2017 to 43% by 2040, indicating service delivery models must adapt to growing demand and complexity.
Taken from this record’s own fields, not from reading the paper. The grade is assigned from the abstract’s wording; what that means.
Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
APA 7th
Finucane, A. M., Bone, A. E., Etkind, S., Carr, D., Meade, R., Munoz-Arroyo, R., et al. (2021). How many people will need palliative care in Scotland by 2040? A mixed-method study of projected palliative care need and recommendations for service delivery. BMJ open. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2020-041317
Vancouver
Finucane AM, Bone AE, Etkind S, Carr D, Meade R, Munoz-Arroyo R, et al. How many people will need palliative care in Scotland by 2040? A mixed-method study of projected palliative care need and recommendations for service delivery. BMJ open. 2021. doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2020-041317. PMID: 33536318.
BibTeX
@article{finucane2021-33536318,
author = {Finucane, A. M. and Bone, A. E. and Etkind, S. and Carr, D. and Meade, R. and Munoz-Arroyo, R. and Moine, S. and Iyayi-Igbinovia, A. and others},
title = {{How many people will need palliative care in Scotland by 2040? A mixed-method study of projected palliative care need and recommendations for service delivery}},
journal = {BMJ open},
year = {2021},
doi = {10.1136/bmjopen-2020-041317},
pmid = {33536318},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2020-041317}
}
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. The record's author list ends in “et al.”, so not every author is named. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
Key findings
- Results We project that by 2040, the number of people requiring palliative care will increase by at least 14%; and by 20% if we factor in multimorbidity.
- The number of people dying from multiple diseases associated with different disease groups is projected to increase from 27% of all deaths in 2017 to 43% by 2040.
- Service delivery models must adapt to serve growing demand and complexity associated with dying from multiple diseases from different disease groups.
Why it matters
This mixed-method study projects that by 2040, the number of people in Scotland requiring palliative care will increase by at least 14%, or 20% when factoring in multimorbidity. The proportion of people dying from multiple diseases from different groups is projected to rise from 27% in 2017 to 43% by 2040, indicating service delivery models must adapt to growing demand and complexity.
New to this subject? Start with our plain-English guide: Digital health →
Study details
- Participants34
- Evidence strengthLow
How this study scored 49/100
Published in a peer-reviewed journal. Scored zero for study design, effect reported and randomized / blinded because the record does not state it.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 7 / 10 | Tier 3 — peer-reviewed journal (BMJ open) |
| Journal's citation record | 2 / 4 | BMJ Open: journal h-index 240 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 0 / 12 | No study design recorded — scores zero, not guessed (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Strength of evidence | 1 / 5 | Rated “low” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 3 / 5 | 2021 — within 6 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 1 / 4 | 34 participants |
| Effect reported | 0 / 3 | No effect size reported — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Studied in people | 3 / 3 | Studied in people (participant count stated) |
| Randomized / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomization or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | 4 / 7 | Cited 51 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 2 / 5 | 7.3 citations a year over 7 year(s) since 2021 |
| Impact for its field and year | 3 / 6 | Cited 6.5× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 1 / 6 | Cited by 1 other studies in this library |
| Still being cited | 2 / 4 | Cited 30 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 3 / 4 | Last-listed author Scott A Murray: h-index 51 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 1 / 3 | University of Edinburgh: institution h-index 1,378 (OpenAlex) |
| Multicenter collaboration | 2 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 5 institution(s) in 2 countries |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 33536318) |
| Free to read | 2 / 2 | Free to read |
| Total | 49 / 100 | — |
What each of these 20 components measures, and what this score is not →
Read the original
Full text: free to read — OpenAlex lists this copy as free to read: the link above (checked 6 Feb 1020).
Related
Studies in the library that share something with this one. The line above each title says what.
Studies this one cites
Referenced by this study and also in the alzhub library, so you can read them here.
Later studies that cite this one
1 study in the alzhub library lists this one in its references.
Related studies in Digital health tools from nearby years
Also tagged “palliative”
858 studies in the library carry the topic tag “palliative”; these are this study's neighbours in a fixed, alphabetical-by-hash tour of them, not the closest in content. All 858 tagged studies.