Home › Research › Getting a diagnosis
How many people will need palliative care in 2040? Past trends, future projections and implications for services
Etkind SN, Bone AE, Gomes B, Lovell N, Evans CJ, Higginson IJ, Murtagh FEM.. BMC medicine, 2017-05-18
Topic: Risk, prevention and care in population studies
Background Current estimates suggest that approximately 75% of people approaching the end-of-life may benefit from palliative care. The growing numbers of older people and increasing prevalence of chronic illness in many countries mean that more people may benefit from palliative care in the future, but this has not been quantified. The present study aims to estimate future population palliative care need in two high-income countries. Methods We used mortality statistics for England and Wales from 2006 to 2014. Building on previous diagnosis-based approaches, we calculated age- and sex-specific proportions of deaths from defined chronic progressive illnesses to estimate the prevalence of palliative care need in the population. We calculated annual change over the 9-year period. Using explicit assumptions about change in disease prevalence over time, and official mortality forecasts, we modelled palliative care need up to 2040. We also undertook separate projections for dementia, cancer and organ failure. Results By 2040, annual deaths in England and Wales are projected to rise by 25.4% (from 501,424 in 2014 to 628,659). If age- and sex-specific proportions with palliative care needs remain the same as in 2014, the number of people requiring palliative care will grow by 25.0% (from 375,398 to 469,305 people/year). However, if the upward trend observed from 2006 to 2014 continues, the increase will be of 42.4% (161,842 more people/year, total 537,240). In addition, disease-specific projections show that dementia (increase from 59,199 to 219,409 deaths/year by 2040) and cancer (increase from 143,638 to 208,636 deaths by 2040) will be the main drivers of increased need. Conclusions If recent mortality trends continue, 160,000 more people in England and Wales will need palliative care by 2040. Healthcare systems must now start to adapt to the age-related growth in deaths from chronic illness, by focusing on integration and boosting of palliative care across health and social care disciplines. Countries with similar demographic and disease changes will likely experience comparable rises in need.
Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
APA 7th
Etkind, S. N., Bone, A. E., Gomes, B., Lovell, N., Evans, C. J., Higginson, I. J., et al. (2017). How many people will need palliative care in 2040? Past trends, future projections and implications for services. BMC medicine. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-017-0860-2
Vancouver
Etkind SN, Bone AE, Gomes B, Lovell N, Evans CJ, Higginson IJ, et al. How many people will need palliative care in 2040? Past trends, future projections and implications for services. BMC medicine. 2017. doi:10.1186/s12916-017-0860-2. PMID: 28514961.
BibTeX
@article{etkind2017-28514961,
author = {Etkind, S. N. and Bone, A. E. and Gomes, B. and Lovell, N. and Evans, C. J. and Higginson, I. J. and Murtagh, F. E. M.},
title = {{How many people will need palliative care in 2040? Past trends, future projections and implications for services}},
journal = {BMC medicine},
year = {2017},
doi = {10.1186/s12916-017-0860-2},
pmid = {28514961},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-017-0860-2}
}
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. The record names 7 authors; APA and Vancouver show the first six, BibTeX and the downloads carry all of them. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
Key findings
- Background Current estimates suggest that approximately 75% of people approaching the end-of-life may benefit from palliative care.
- Results By 2040, annual deaths in England and Wales are projected to rise by 25.4% (from 501,424 in 2014 to 628,659).
Why it matters
This study projects that the number of people needing palliative care in England and Wales will grow as deaths increase, based on mortality statistics and assumptions about disease prevalence. It does not test any treatment, cure or prevention for Alzheimer's disease, but it does include separate projections for dementia as one of the conditions driving palliative care need.
New to this subject? Start with our plain-English guide: Getting a diagnosis →
Study details
- Participants469,305
- Effect size25.4%; 25.0%; 42.4%
- Evidence strengthLow
How this study scored 64/100
Published in a peer-reviewed journal. Scored zero for study design and randomized / blinded because the record does not state it.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 7 / 10 | Tier 3 — peer-reviewed journal (BMC medicine) |
| Journal's citation record | 3 / 4 | BMC Medicine: journal h-index 259 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 0 / 12 | No study design recorded — scores zero, not guessed (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Strength of evidence | 1 / 5 | Rated “low” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 2 / 5 | 2017 — within 10 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 4 / 4 | 469,305 participants |
| Effect reported | 2 / 3 | Effect reported as a number, without an interval or test |
| Studied in people | 3 / 3 | Studied in people (participant count stated) |
| Randomized / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomization or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | 6 / 7 | Cited 805 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 5 / 5 | 73.2 citations a year over 11 year(s) since 2017 |
| Impact for its field and year | 6 / 6 | Cited 48.2× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 2 / 6 | Cited by 6 other studies in this library |
| Still being cited | 4 / 4 | Cited 312 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 3 / 4 | Last-listed author Fliss EM Murtagh: h-index 62 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 1 / 3 | King's College London: institution h-index 1,348 (OpenAlex) |
| Multicenter collaboration | 1 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 3 institution(s) in 2 countries |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 28514961) |
| Free to read | 2 / 2 | Free to read |
| Total | 64 / 100 | — |
What each of these 20 components measures, and what this score is not →
Read the original
Full text: free to read — OpenAlex lists this copy as free to read: the link above (checked 6 Feb 1020).
Related
Studies in the library that share something with this one. The line above each title says what.
Studies this one cites
Referenced by this study and also in the alzhub library, so you can read them here.
Later studies that cite this one
6 studies in the alzhub library list this one in their references.
Related studies in Getting a diagnosis
Also tagged “palliative”
858 studies in the library carry the topic tag “palliative”; these are this study's neighbours in a fixed, alphabetical-by-hash tour of them, not the closest in content. All 858 tagged studies.