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A two decade dementia incidence comparison from the Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies I and II
Matthews FE, Stephan BC, Robinson L, Jagger C, Barnes LE, Arthur A, Brayne C, Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies (CFAS) Collaboration.. Nature communications, 2016-04-19
Topic: Risk, prevention and care in population studies
Dramatic global increases in future numbers of people with dementia have been predicted. No multicentre population-based study powered to detect changes over time has reported dementia incidence. MRC Cognitive Function and Ageing Study (CFAS) undertook baseline interviews in populations aged 65+ years in England and Wales (1989-1994). Three areas (CFAS I) were selected for new sampling two decades later (2008-2011) with same geographical boundaries, sampling and approach methods (CFAS II). At 2 years CFAS I interviewed 5,156 (76% response) with 5,288 interviewed in CFAS II (74% response). Here we report a 20% drop in incidence (95% CI: 0-40%), driven by a reduction in men across all ages above 65. In the UK we estimate 209,600 new dementia cases per year. This study was uniquely designed to test for differences across geography and time. A reduction of age-specific incidence means that the numbers of people estimated to develop dementia in any year has remained relatively stable.
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APA 7th
Matthews, F. E., Stephan, B. C., Robinson, L., Jagger, C., Barnes, L. E., Arthur, A., et al. (2016). A two decade dementia incidence comparison from the Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies I and II. Nature communications. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms11398
Vancouver
Matthews FE, Stephan BC, Robinson L, Jagger C, Barnes LE, Arthur A, et al. A two decade dementia incidence comparison from the Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies I and II. Nature communications. 2016. doi:10.1038/ncomms11398. PMID: 27092707.
BibTeX
@article{matthews2016-27092707,
author = {Matthews, F. E. and Stephan, B. C. and Robinson, L. and Jagger, C. and Barnes, L. E. and Arthur, A. and Brayne, C.},
title = {{A two decade dementia incidence comparison from the Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies I and II}},
journal = {Nature communications},
year = {2016},
doi = {10.1038/ncomms11398},
pmid = {27092707},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms11398}
}
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. The record names 7 authors; APA and Vancouver show the first six, BibTeX and the downloads carry all of them. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
Key findings
- At 2 years CFAS I interviewed 5,156 (76% response) with 5,288 interviewed in CFAS II (74% response).
- Here we report a 20% drop in incidence (95% CI: 0-40%), driven by a reduction in men across all ages above 65.
- In the UK we estimate 209,600 new dementia cases per year.
- This study was uniquely designed to test for differences across geography and time.
- A reduction of age-specific incidence means that the numbers of people estimated to develop dementia in any year has remained relatively stable.
Why it matters
Two samples of people aged 65+ in the same three areas of England and Wales, taken in 1989–1994 and 2008–2011 using the same methods, found a 20% drop in age-specific dementia incidence (95% CI 0–40%, so the true change could be close to zero), "driven by a reduction in men across all ages above 65." Because individual risk fell, the authors estimate that the number of new cases each year "has remained relatively stable" (about 209,600 a year across the UK) rather than rising as predicted. This is an observational comparison over time: it does not identify why incidence fell and is not evidence for any treatment or prevention measure.
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Study details
- Evidence strengthLow
How this study scored 59/100
Published in a leading specialty journal. Scored zero for study design, sample size, effect reported, studied in people and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 9 / 10 | Tier 2 — leading specialty journal (Nature communications) |
| Journal's citation record | 4 / 4 | Nature Communications: journal h-index 747 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 0 / 12 | No study design recorded — scores zero, not guessed (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Strength of evidence | 1 / 5 | Rated “low” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 1 / 5 | 2016 — within 20 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 0 / 4 | Participant count not stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Effect reported | 0 / 3 | No effect size reported — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Studied in people | 0 / 3 | Not stated whether this was studied in people — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | 6 / 7 | Cited 427 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 4 / 5 | 35.6 citations a year over 12 year(s) since 2016 |
| Impact for its field and year | 6 / 6 | Cited 44.3× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 4 / 6 | Cited by 36 other studies in this library |
| Still being cited | 3 / 4 | Cited 87 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 2 / 4 | Last-listed author G. Forster: h-index 20 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 2 / 3 | University of Cambridge: institution h-index 1,973 (OpenAlex) |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 3 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 15 institution(s) in 1 country |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 27092707) |
| Free to read | 2 / 2 | Free to read |
| Total | 59 / 100 | — |
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