A summary risk score for the prediction of Alzheimer disease in elderly persons
Reitz C, Tang MX, Schupf N, Manly JJ, Mayeux R, Luchsinger JA.. Archives of neurology, 2010-07-01
Topic: Amyloid, tau and blood-test diagnosis
Objective To develop a simple summary risk score for the prediction of Alzheimer disease in elderly persons based on their vascular risk profiles. Design A longitudinal, community-based study. Setting New York, New York. Patients One thousand fifty-one Medicare recipients aged 65 years or older and residing in New York who were free of dementia or cognitive impairment at baseline. Main outcome measures We separately explored the associations of several vascular risk factors with late-onset Alzheimer disease (LOAD) using Cox proportional hazards models to identify factors that would contribute to the risk score. Then we estimated the score values of each factor based on their beta coefficients and created the LOAD vascular risk score by summing these individual scores. Results Risk factors contributing to the risk score were age, sex, education, ethnicity, APOE epsilon4 genotype, history of diabetes, hypertension or smoking, high-density lipoprotein levels, and waist to hip ratio. The resulting risk score predicted dementia well. According to the vascular risk score quintiles, the risk to develop probable LOAD was 1.0 for persons with a score of 0 to 14 and increased 3.7-fold for persons with a score of 15 to 18, 3.6-fold for persons with a score of 19 to 22, 12.6-fold for persons with a score of 23 to 28, and 20.5-fold for persons with a score higher than 28. Conclusions While additional studies in other populations are needed to validate and further develop the score, our study suggests that this vascular risk score could be a valuable tool to identify elderly individuals who might be at risk of LOAD. This risk score could be used to identify persons at risk of LOAD, but can also be used to adjust for confounders in epidemiologic studies.
Key findings
- Results Risk factors contributing to the risk score were age, sex, education, ethnicity, APOE epsilon4 genotype, history of diabetes, hypertension or smoking, high-density lipoprotein levels, and waist to hip ratio.
- Conclusions While additional studies in other populations are needed to validate and further develop the score, our study suggests that this vascular risk score could be a valuable tool to identify elderly individuals who might be at risk of LOAD.
Why it matters
This study developed a vascular risk score including age, sex, education, ethnicity, APOE epsilon4, diabetes, hypertension or smoking, HDL levels, and waist-to-hip ratio that predicted late-onset Alzheimer's disease in a New York cohort. It is a risk prediction tool and the authors note it needs validation in other populations; it is not a treatment or prevention.
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Study details
- Study designlongitudinal study
- Evidence strengthModerate
How this study scored 56/100
Published in a peer-reviewed journal, and it is a longitudinal study following the same people over time. Scored zero for sample size, effect reported, studied in people and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 7 / 10 | Tier 3 — peer-reviewed journal (Archives of neurology) |
| Journal's citation record | 3 / 4 | Archives of Neurology: journal h-index 353 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 7 / 12 | A longitudinal study following the same people over time |
| Strength of evidence | 3 / 5 | Rated “moderate” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 1 / 5 | 2010 — within 20 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 0 / 4 | Participant count not stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Effect reported | 0 / 3 | No effect size reported — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Studied in people | 0 / 3 | Not stated whether this was studied in people — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | 5 / 7 | Cited 197 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 3 / 5 | 10.9 citations a year over 18 year(s) since 2010 |
| Impact for its field and year | 4 / 6 | Cited 9.2× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 3 / 6 | Cited by 14 other studies in this library |
| Still being cited | 2 / 4 | Cited 22 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 3 / 4 | Last-listed author Jose Alejandro Luchsinger: h-index 78 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 2 / 3 | Columbia University: institution h-index 1,824 (OpenAlex) |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 1 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 2 institution(s) in 1 country |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 20625090) |
| Free to read | 0 / 2 | Behind a paywall — scores zero |
| Total | 56 / 100 | — |
What each of these 20 components measures, and what this score is not →
Read the original
- DOI: 10.1001/archneurol.2010.136
- PubMed: 20625090
- Original source →
- Free full text: PubMed Central →
Full text: free to read — PubMed Central lists this copy as free to read: the link above (checked 10 Oct 2026).
Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
APA 7th
Reitz, C., Tang, M. X., Schupf, N., Manly, J. J., Mayeux, R., & Luchsinger, J. A. (2010). A summary risk score for the prediction of Alzheimer disease in elderly persons. Archives of neurology. https://doi.org/10.1001/archneurol.2010.136
Vancouver
Reitz C, Tang MX, Schupf N, Manly JJ, Mayeux R, Luchsinger JA. A summary risk score for the prediction of Alzheimer disease in elderly persons. Archives of neurology. 2010. doi:10.1001/archneurol.2010.136. PMID: 20625090.
BibTeX
@article{reitz2010-20625090,
author = {Reitz, C. and Tang, M. X. and Schupf, N. and Manly, J. J. and Mayeux, R. and Luchsinger, J. A.},
title = {{A summary risk score for the prediction of Alzheimer disease in elderly persons}},
journal = {Archives of neurology},
year = {2010},
doi = {10.1001/archneurol.2010.136},
pmid = {20625090},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1001/archneurol.2010.136}
}
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