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Projected extreme temperature event-attributable dementia deaths in China: a climate–ageing–adaptation framework
Rui Yi Zhang, Yonghong Li, Huan Zheng, Mulei Chen, Jia Zhao, Yiming Hu, Ainan Jia, Qing Juan Guo et al.. EBioMedicine, 2025-12-09
Topic: Risk, prevention and care in population studies
Without adaptation, ADD heatwave-attributable deaths are projected to rise sharply, especially under rapid socioeconomic development with high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP5-RCP8.5) in the 2080s, which reach 59,088-an 11-fold (+1003%) increase comparing to 2010s levels. Cold spell-attributable deaths generally decline but reductions are insufficient to offset the sharp rise in heatwave mortality, leading to a net increase in total attributable deaths. Adaptation strategies could avert up to 76.4% of heatwave-attributable deaths compared to no-adaptation scenario. The convergence of climate change and population ageing is projected to substantially magnify dementia-related mortality in China. Under SSP5-RCP8.5, deaths attributable to extreme temperature events are projected to reach unprecedented levels by the end of the 21st century, especially without adaptation measures. These findings underscore the urgent need for massive greenhouse gases emission reductions alongside balanced, region-specific adaptation measures, and highlight dementia care as an essential component of climate resilience planning. Our study provides guidance for designing climate-resilient public health policies, particularly for ageing populations in climate-vulnerable counties and regions. FUNDING: This work was supported by the Science and Technology Fundamental Resources Investigation Program of China [2017FY101201, 2017FY101206], and the National Foundation for Australia-China Relations of Australia [6016294].
Key findings
- Without adaptation, ADD heatwave-attributable deaths are projected to rise sharply, especially under rapid socioeconomic development with high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP5-RCP8.5) in the 2080s, which reach 59,088-an 11-fold (+1003%) increase comparing to 2010s levels.
- Cold spell-attributable deaths generally decline but reductions are insufficient to offset the sharp rise in heatwave mortality, leading to a net increase in total attributable deaths.
- Adaptation strategies could avert up to 76.4% of heatwave-attributable deaths compared to no-adaptation scenario.
- The convergence of climate change and population ageing is projected to substantially magnify dementia-related mortality in China.
- Under SSP5-RCP8.5, deaths attributable to extreme temperature events are projected to reach unprecedented levels by the end of the 21st century, especially without adaptation measures.
Why it matters
This projection estimates that without adaptation, heatwave-attributable dementia deaths in China could rise sharply by the 2080s, with cold spell deaths declining but not enough to offset the increase, and adaptation strategies could avert up to 76.4% of heatwave-attributable deaths. These are future projections about deaths related to extreme temperatures, not findings about treating, curing, or preventing Alzheimer's disease itself.
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Study details
- Participants399,036
- Effect size76.4%
- Evidence strengthLow
How this study scored 48/100
Published in a peer-reviewed journal. Scored zero for study design and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 7 / 10 | Tier 3 — peer-reviewed journal (EBioMedicine) |
| Journal's citation record | 2 / 4 | EBioMedicine: journal h-index 181 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 0 / 12 | No study design recorded — scores zero, not guessed (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Strength of evidence | 1 / 5 | Rated “low” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 4 / 5 | 2025 — within 3 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 4 / 4 | 399,036 participants |
| Effect reported | 2 / 3 | Effect reported as a number, without an interval or test |
| Studied in people | 3 / 3 | Studied in people (participant count stated) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | 2 / 7 | Cited 5 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 1 / 5 | 1.7 citations a year over 3 year(s) since 2025 |
| Impact for its field and year | 2 / 6 | Cited 2.0× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 0 / 6 | No other study in this library cites it |
| Still being cited | 1 / 4 | Cited 5 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 2 / 4 | Last-listed author Jing Wu: h-index 31 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 1 / 3 | The University of Adelaide: institution h-index 918 (OpenAlex) |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 2 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 7 institution(s) in 3 countries |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 41370969) |
| Free to read | 2 / 2 | Free to read |
| Total | 48 / 100 | — |
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Read the original
Full text: free to read — OpenAlex lists this copy as free to read: the link above (checked 6 Feb 1020).
Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. The record's author list ends in “et al.”, so not every author is named. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
APA 7th
Zhang, R. Y., Li, Y., Zheng, H., Chen, M., Zhao, J., Hu, Y., et al. (2025). Projected extreme temperature event-attributable dementia deaths in China: a climate–ageing–adaptation framework. EBioMedicine. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ebiom.2025.106072
Vancouver
Zhang RY, Li Y, Zheng H, Chen M, Zhao J, Hu Y, et al. Projected extreme temperature event-attributable dementia deaths in China: a climate–ageing–adaptation framework. EBioMedicine. 2025. doi:10.1016/j.ebiom.2025.106072. PMID: 41370969.
BibTeX
@article{zhang2025-41370969,
author = {Zhang, Rui Yi and Li, Yonghong and Zheng, Huan and Chen, Mulei and Zhao, Jia and Hu, Yiming and Jia, Ainan and Guo, Qing Juan and others},
title = {{Projected extreme temperature event-attributable dementia deaths in China: a climate–ageing–adaptation framework}},
journal = {EBioMedicine},
year = {2025},
doi = {10.1016/j.ebiom.2025.106072},
pmid = {41370969},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ebiom.2025.106072}
}
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