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Annual Incidence of Alzheimer Disease in the United States Projected to the Years 2000 Through 2050
Liesi E. Hebert, Laurel A. Beckett, Paul A. Scherr, Denis A. Evans. Alzheimer Disease & Associated Disorders, 2001-10-01
Topic: Brain imaging, connectivity and assessment
Alzheimer disease will affect increasing numbers of people as baby boomers (persons born between 1946 and 1964) age. This work reports projections of the incidence of Alzheimer disease(AD) that will occur among older Americans in the future. Education adjusted age-specific incidence rates of clinically diagnosed probable AD were obtained from stratified random samples of residents 65 years of age and older in a geographically defined community. These rates were applied to U.S. Census Bureau projections of the total U.S. population by age and sex to estimate the number of people newly affected each year. The annual number of incident cases is expected to more than double by the midpoint of the twenty-first century: from 377,000 (95% confidence interval = 159,000-595,000) in 1995 to 959,000 (95% confidence interval = 140,000-1,778,000) in 2050. The proportion of new onset cases who are age 85 or older will increase from 40% in 1995 to 62% in 2050 when the youngest of the baby boomers will attain that age. Without progress in preventing or delaying onset of Alzheimer disease, both the number of people with Alzheimer disease and the proportion of the total population affected will increase substantially.
Key findings
- Education adjusted age-specific incidence rates of clinically diagnosed probable AD were obtained from stratified random samples of residents 65 years of age and older in a geographically defined community.
- Census Bureau projections of the total U.S. population by age and sex to estimate the number of people newly affected each year.
- The annual number of incident cases is expected to more than double by the midpoint of the twenty-first century: from 377,000 (95% confidence interval = 159,000-595,000) in 1995 to 959,000 (95% confidence interval = 140,000-1,778,000) in 2050.
- The proportion of new onset cases who are age 85 or older will increase from 40% in 1995 to 62% in 2050 when the youngest of the baby boomers will attain that age.
- Without progress in preventing or delaying onset of Alzheimer disease, both the number of people with Alzheimer disease and the proportion of the total population affected will increase substantially.
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Study details
- Evidence strengthLow
How this study scored 36/100
Published in a peer-reviewed journal. Scored zero for study design, sample size, effect reported, studied in people and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it. We have no data on journal's citation record, times cited, citations per year, impact for its field and year, cited by studies here, still being cited, senior author's track record, institution's track record and multi-centre collaboration, so those were left out: it earned 21 of the 58 points we could judge it on, which is 36 out of 100.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 7 / 10 | Tier 3 — peer-reviewed journal (Alzheimer Disease & Associated Disorders) |
| Journal's citation record | — / 4 | No journal record from OpenAlex — left out of this score |
| Study design | 0 / 12 | No study design recorded — scores zero, not guessed (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Strength of evidence | 1 / 5 | Rated “low” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 1 / 5 | 2001 — older than 20 years, still counted |
| Sample size | 0 / 4 | Participant count not stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Effect reported | 0 / 3 | No effect size reported — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Studied in people | 0 / 3 | Not stated whether this was studied in people — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | — / 7 | No citation count (not found in OpenAlex) — left out of this score |
| Citations per year | — / 5 | No citation count or no year — left out of this score |
| Impact for its field and year | — / 6 | No field-weighted citation impact (OpenAlex has none yet) — left out of this score |
| Cited by studies here | — / 6 | Not yet checked against this library's citation graph — left out of this score |
| Still being cited | — / 4 | No yearly citation counts — left out of this score |
| Senior author's track record | — / 4 | Senior author's record not available — left out of this score |
| Institution's track record | — / 3 | No institution listed in OpenAlex — left out of this score |
| Multi-centre collaboration | — / 3 | Institutions not listed — left out of this score |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 11723367) |
| Free to read | 0 / 2 | Behind a paywall — scores zero |
| Points | 21 / 58 | Scored on 11 of 20 parts. We have no data for the rest, so they are left out: 21 of the 58 points we could judge it on is 36 out of 100. |
| Total | 36 / 100 | — |
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Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
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APA 7th
Hebert, L. E., Beckett, L. A., Scherr, P. A., & Evans, D. A. (2001). Annual Incidence of Alzheimer Disease in the United States Projected to the Years 2000 Through 2050. Alzheimer Disease & Associated Disorders. https://doi.org/10.1097/00002093-200110000-00002
Vancouver
Hebert LE, Beckett LA, Scherr PA, Evans DA. Annual Incidence of Alzheimer Disease in the United States Projected to the Years 2000 Through 2050. Alzheimer Disease & Associated Disorders. 2001. doi:10.1097/00002093-200110000-00002. PMID: 11723367.
BibTeX
@article{hebert2001-11723367,
author = {Hebert, Liesi E. and Beckett, Laurel A. and Scherr, Paul A. and Evans, Denis A.},
title = {{Annual Incidence of Alzheimer Disease in the United States Projected to the Years 2000 Through 2050}},
journal = {Alzheimer Disease \& Associated Disorders},
year = {2001},
doi = {10.1097/00002093-200110000-00002},
pmid = {11723367},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1097/00002093-200110000-00002}
}
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