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Measuring Alzheimer disease progression with transition probabilities: estimates from NACC-UDS
Spackman DE, Kadiyala S, Neumann PJ, Veenstra DL, Sullivan SD.. Current Alzheimer research, 2012-11-01
Topic: Amyloid, tau and blood-test diagnosis
Objectives Estimate the probabilities, for Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients, of transitioning between stages of disease severity (mild, moderate, severe, dead) and care settings (community, institutional). Methods Data were compiled by the National Alzheimer Coordinating Center. The main analyses were limited to 3,852 patients who were 50 years old, diagnosed with possible/probable AD and had at least two center visits.
Key findings
- Methods Data were compiled by the National Alzheimer Coordinating Center.
- The main analyses were limited to 3,852 patients who were 50 years old, diagnosed with possible/probable AD and had at least two center visits.
- A multinomial logistic model accounting for patient and center level correlation was used to calculate transition probabilities between stages of the Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR).
- Separately we calculated the probabilities of being institutionalized based on CDR stage.
Why it matters
This study used data from a large registry to estimate the chances that Alzheimer's patients move between stages of severity and care settings over time. It is a descriptive tool for understanding disease progression and planning care, not a test of any treatment or cure.
Study details
- Participants3,852
- Effect size5.5%; 21.5%; 48.0%
- Evidence strengthLow
How this study scored 48/100
Published in a peer-reviewed journal. Scored zero for study design and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 7 / 10 | Tier 3 — peer-reviewed journal (Current Alzheimer research) |
| Journal's citation record | 1 / 4 | Current Alzheimer Research: journal h-index 119 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 0 / 12 | No study design recorded — scores zero, not guessed (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Strength of evidence | 1 / 5 | Rated “low” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 1 / 5 | 2012 — within 20 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 3 / 4 | 3,852 participants |
| Effect reported | 2 / 3 | Effect reported as a number, without an interval or test |
| Studied in people | 3 / 3 | Studied in people (participant count stated) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | 4 / 7 | Cited 58 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 2 / 5 | 3.6 citations a year over 16 year(s) since 2012 |
| Impact for its field and year | 2 / 6 | Cited 1.6× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 2 / 6 | Cited by 4 other studies in this library |
| Still being cited | 1 / 4 | Cited 7 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 3 / 4 | Last-listed author Sean D. Sullivan: h-index 74 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 3 / 3 | University of Washington: institution h-index 3,540 (OpenAlex) |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 1 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 3 institution(s) in 2 countries |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 22175655) |
| Free to read | 0 / 2 | Behind a paywall — scores zero |
| Total | 48 / 100 | — |
What each of these 20 components measures, and what this score is not →
Read the original
Full text: free to read — OpenAlex lists this copy as free to read: the link above (checked 6 Feb 1020).
Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
APA 7th
Spackman, D. E., Kadiyala, S., Neumann, P. J., Veenstra, D. L., & Sullivan, S. D. (2012). Measuring Alzheimer disease progression with transition probabilities: estimates from NACC-UDS. Current Alzheimer research. https://doi.org/10.2174/156720512803569046
Vancouver
Spackman DE, Kadiyala S, Neumann PJ, Veenstra DL, Sullivan SD. Measuring Alzheimer disease progression with transition probabilities: estimates from NACC-UDS. Current Alzheimer research. 2012. doi:10.2174/156720512803569046. PMID: 22175655.
BibTeX
@article{spackman2012-22175655,
author = {Spackman, D. E. and Kadiyala, S. and Neumann, P. J. and Veenstra, D. L. and Sullivan, S. D.},
title = {{Measuring Alzheimer disease progression with transition probabilities: estimates from NACC-UDS}},
journal = {Current Alzheimer research},
year = {2012},
doi = {10.2174/156720512803569046},
pmid = {22175655},
url = {https://doi.org/10.2174/156720512803569046}
}
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