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Leveraging digital twins for sample size reduction, powering secondary endpoints or subgroups in a simulated TRAILBLAZER‐ALZ 2 trial
Coco M Kusiak, Rachel A. Mak-McCully, Carolyn Murray, Jonathan R. Walsh. Alzheimer s & Dementia, 2025-12-01
Topic: Brain proteins, microglia and lab models
Due to the reduced variability in endpoints when using digital twins as covariates in statistical analyses, the TRAILBLAZER-ALZ 2 trial could have enrolled up to 24% fewer control arm participants to draw the same conclusions about treatment efficacy as previously reported for the study's primary outcome, the integrated Alzheimer Disease Rating Scale (iADRS) at 18 months. Alternatively, digital twins could be incorporated to increase power up to 15% for secondary endpoints. Potential sample size reductions and power gains are reported in Table 1. Similarly, subgroup analyses would gain power [Table 2] By including digital twins as a supercovariate in the analysis of a simulated donanemab trial, we demonstrate digital twins ability to reduce overall sample size or add power to secondaries and subgroups not factored into initial sample size calculations.
Key findings
- Due to the reduced variability in endpoints when using digital twins as covariates in statistical analyses, the TRAILBLAZER-ALZ 2 trial could have enrolled up to 24% fewer control arm participants to draw the same conclusions about treatment efficacy as previously reported for the study's primary outcome, the integrated Alzheimer Disease Rating Scale (iADRS) at 18 months.
- Alternatively, digital twins could be incorporated to increase power up to 15% for secondary endpoints.
- Potential sample size reductions and power gains are reported in Table 1.
- Similarly, subgroup analyses would gain power [Table 2] By including digital twins as a supercovariate in the analysis of a simulated donanemab trial, we demonstrate digital twins ability to reduce overall sample size or add power to secondaries and subgroups not factored into initial sample size ca
Why it matters
This analysis of a simulated donanemab trial found that using digital twins as covariates could allow up to 24% fewer control arm participants or increase power up to 15% for secondary endpoints. These are statistical trial-design findings only and say nothing about whether any treatment cures or prevents Alzheimer's disease.
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Study details
- Study designlongitudinal study
- Evidence strengthHigh
How this study scored 42/100
Published in a peer-reviewed journal, and it is a longitudinal study following the same people over time. Scored zero for sample size, effect reported, studied in people and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it. We have no data on institution's track record, so that was left out: it earned 41 of the 97 points we could judge it on, which is 42 out of 100.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 7 / 10 | Tier 3 — peer-reviewed journal (Alzheimer s & Dementia) |
| Journal's citation record | 2 / 4 | Alzheimer s & Dementia: journal h-index 228 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 7 / 12 | A longitudinal study following the same people over time |
| Strength of evidence | 5 / 5 | Rated “high” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 4 / 5 | 2025 — within 3 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 0 / 4 | Participant count not stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Effect reported | 0 / 3 | No effect size reported — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Studied in people | 0 / 3 | Not stated whether this was studied in people — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | 0 / 7 | Cited 0 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 0 / 5 | 0.0 citations a year over 3 year(s) since 2025 |
| Impact for its field and year | 0 / 6 | Cited 0.0× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 0 / 6 | No other study in this library cites it |
| Still being cited | 0 / 4 | Cited 0 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 2 / 4 | Last-listed author Jonathan R. Walsh: h-index 26 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | — / 3 | No institution listed in OpenAlex — left out of this score |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 0 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 0 institution(s) in 0 countries — scores zero (affiliation lists can be incomplete) |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 41447596) |
| Free to read | 2 / 2 | Free to read |
| Points | 41 / 97 | Scored on 19 of 20 parts. We have no data for the rest, so they are left out: 41 of the 97 points we could judge it on is 42 out of 100. |
| Total | 42 / 100 | — |
What each of these 20 components measures, and what this score is not →
Read the original
- DOI: 10.1002/alz70859_101285
- PubMed: 41447596
- Original source →
- Free full text: Alzheimer s & Dementia →
Full text: free to read — OpenAlex lists this copy as free to read: the link above (checked 6 Feb 1020).
Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
APA 7th
Kusiak, C. M., Mak-McCully, R. A., Murray, C., & Walsh, J. R. (2025). Leveraging digital twins for sample size reduction, powering secondary endpoints or subgroups in a simulated TRAILBLAZER‐ALZ 2 trial. Alzheimer s & Dementia. https://doi.org/10.1002/alz70859_101285
Vancouver
Kusiak CM, Mak-McCully RA, Murray C, Walsh JR. Leveraging digital twins for sample size reduction, powering secondary endpoints or subgroups in a simulated TRAILBLAZER‐ALZ 2 trial. Alzheimer s & Dementia. 2025. doi:10.1002/alz70859_101285. PMID: 41447596.
BibTeX
@article{kusiak2025-41447596,
author = {Kusiak, Coco M and Mak-McCully, Rachel A. and Murray, Carolyn and Walsh, Jonathan R.},
title = {{Leveraging digital twins for sample size reduction, powering secondary endpoints or subgroups in a simulated TRAILBLAZER‐ALZ 2 trial}},
journal = {Alzheimer s \& Dementia},
year = {2025},
doi = {10.1002/alz70859_101285},
pmid = {41447596},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/alz70859_101285}
}
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