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IScore: a risk score to predict death early after hospitalization for an acute ischemic stroke
Saposnik G, Kapral MK, Liu Y, Hall R, O'Donnell M, Raptis S, Tu JV, Mamdani M et al.. Circulation, 2011-02-07
Topic: Risk, prevention and care in population studies
Background A predictive model of stroke mortality may be useful for clinicians to improve communication with and care of hospitalized patients. Our aim was to identify predictors of mortality and to develop and validate a risk score model using information available at hospital presentation. Methods and results This retrospective study included 12 262 community-based patients presenting with an acute ischemic stroke at multiple hospitals in Ontario, Canada, between 2003 and 2008 who had been identified from the Registry of the Canadian Stroke Network (8223 patients in the derivation cohort, 4039 in the internal validation cohort) and the Ontario Stroke Audit (3720 for the external validation cohort). The mortality rates for the derivation and internal validation cohorts were 12.2% and 12.6%, respectively, at 30 days and 22.5% and 22.9% at 1 year. Multivariable predictors of 30-day and 1-year mortality included older age, male sex, severe stroke, nonlacunar stroke subtype, glucose ≥7.5 mmol/L (135 mg/dL), history of atrial fibrillation, coronary artery disease, congestive heart failure, cancer, dementia, kidney disease on dialysis, and dependency before the stroke. A risk score index stratified the risk of death and identified low- and high- risk individuals. The c statistic was 0.850 for 30-day mortality and 0.823 for 1-year mortality for the derivation cohort, 0.851 for the 30-day model and 0.840 for the 1-year mortality model in the internal validation set, and 0.790 for the 30-day model and 0.782 for the 1-year model in the external validation set. Conclusion Among patients with ischemic stroke, factors identifiable within hours of hospital presentation predicted mortality risk at 30 days and 1 year. The predictive score may assist clinicians in estimating stroke mortality risk and policymakers in providing a quantitative tool to compare facilities.
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APA 7th
Saposnik, G., Kapral, M. K., Liu, Y., Hall, R., O'Donnell, M., Raptis, S., et al. (2011). IScore: a risk score to predict death early after hospitalization for an acute ischemic stroke. Circulation. https://doi.org/10.1161/circulationaha.110.983353
Vancouver
Saposnik G, Kapral MK, Liu Y, Hall R, O'Donnell M, Raptis S, et al. IScore: a risk score to predict death early after hospitalization for an acute ischemic stroke. Circulation. 2011. doi:10.1161/circulationaha.110.983353. PMID: 21300951.
BibTeX
@article{saposnik2011-21300951,
author = {Saposnik, G. and Kapral, M. K. and Liu, Y. and Hall, R. and O'Donnell, M. and Raptis, S. and Tu, J. V. and Mamdani, M. and others},
title = {{IScore: a risk score to predict death early after hospitalization for an acute ischemic stroke}},
journal = {Circulation},
year = {2011},
doi = {10.1161/circulationaha.110.983353},
pmid = {21300951},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1161/circulationaha.110.983353}
}
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Key findings
- Methods and results This retrospective study included 12 262 community-based patients presenting with an acute ischemic stroke at multiple hospitals in Ontario, Canada, between 2003 and 2008 who had been identified from the Registry of the Canadian Stroke Network (8223 patients in the derivation cohort, 4039 in the internal validation cohort) and the Ontario Stroke Audit (3720 for the external validation cohort).
Study details
- Participants12
- Effect size12.2%; 12.6%; 22.5%
- Evidence strengthModerate
How this study scored 51/100
Published in a peer-reviewed journal. Scored zero for study design and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it. We have no data on journal's citation record, times cited, citations per year, impact for its field and year, cited by studies here, still being cited, senior author's track record and institution's track record, so those were left out: it earned 31 of the 61 points we could judge it on, which is 51 out of 100.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 7 / 10 | Tier 3 — peer-reviewed journal (Circulation) |
| Journal's citation record | — / 4 | No journal record from OpenAlex — left out of this score |
| Study design | 0 / 12 | No study design recorded — scores zero, not guessed (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Strength of evidence | 3 / 5 | Rated “moderate” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 1 / 5 | 2011 — within 20 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 1 / 4 | 12 participants |
| Effect reported | 2 / 3 | Effect reported as a number, without an interval or test |
| Studied in people | 3 / 3 | Studied in people (participant count stated) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | — / 7 | No citation count (not found in OpenAlex) — left out of this score |
| Citations per year | — / 5 | No citation count or no year — left out of this score |
| Impact for its field and year | — / 6 | No field-weighted citation impact (OpenAlex has none yet) — left out of this score |
| Cited by studies here | — / 6 | Not yet checked against this library's citation graph — left out of this score |
| Still being cited | — / 4 | No yearly citation counts — left out of this score |
| Senior author's track record | — / 4 | Senior author's record not available — left out of this score |
| Institution's track record | — / 3 | No institution listed in OpenAlex — left out of this score |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 2 / 3 | PubMed indexes it as a multicentre study |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 21300951) |
| Free to read | 0 / 2 | Behind a paywall — scores zero |
| Points | 31 / 61 | Scored on 12 of 20 parts. We have no data for the rest, so they are left out: 31 of the 61 points we could judge it on is 51 out of 100. |
| Total | 51 / 100 | — |
What each of these 20 components measures, and what this score is not →
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