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Incidence and prevalence of atrial fibrillation and associated mortality among Medicare beneficiaries, 1993-2007
Piccini JP, Hammill BG, Sinner MF, Jensen PN, Hernandez AF, Heckbert SR, Benjamin EJ, Curtis LH.. Circulation. Cardiovascular quality and outcomes, 2012-01-10
Topic: Risk, prevention and care in population studies
Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common and costly problem among older persons. The frequency of AF increases with age, but representative national data about incidence and prevalence are limited. We examined the annual incidence, prevalence, and mortality associated with AF among older persons. Methods and results In a retrospective cohort study of Medicare beneficiaries 65 years and older diagnosed with AF between 1993 and 2007, we measured annual age- and sex-adjusted incidence and prevalence of AF and mortality following an AF diagnosis. Among 433,123 patients with incident AF, the mean age was 80 years, 55% were women, and 92% were white. The incidence of AF remained steady during the 14-year study period, ranging from 27.3 to 28.3 per 1000 person-years. Incidence rates were consistently higher among men and white beneficiaries. The prevalence of AF increased across the study period (mean, 5% per year) and was robust to sensitivity analyses. Among beneficiaries with incident AF in 2007, 36% had heart failure, 84% had hypertension, 30% had cerebrovascular disease, and 8% had dementia. Mortality after AF diagnosis declined slightly over time but remained high. In 2007, the age- and sex-adjusted mortality rates were 11% at 30 days and 25% at 1 year. Conclusions Among older Medicare beneficiaries, incident AF is common and has remained relatively stable for more than a decade. Incident AF is associated with significant comorbidity and mortality; death occurs in one-quarter of beneficiaries within 1 year.
Key findings
- We examined the annual incidence, prevalence, and mortality associated with AF among older persons.
- Methods and results In a retrospective cohort study of Medicare beneficiaries 65 years and older diagnosed with AF between 1993 and 2007, we measured annual age- and sex-adjusted incidence and prevalence of AF and mortality following an AF diagnosis.
- Incident AF is associated with significant comorbidity and mortality; death occurs in one-quarter of beneficiaries within 1 year.
Why it matters
This retrospective cohort study of Medicare beneficiaries found that incident atrial fibrillation was common and its incidence remained relatively stable from 1993 to 2007, while prevalence increased about 5% per year, and that among beneficiaries with incident atrial fibrillation in 2007, 8% had dementia. It concerns atrial fibrillation and its associated mortality, not Alzheimer's disease treatment, cure or prevention.
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Study details
- Study designcohort study
- Participants433,123
- Evidence strengthModerate
How this study scored 66/100
Published in a peer-reviewed journal, and it is a cohort study following people over time. Scored zero for effect reported and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 7 / 10 | Tier 3 — peer-reviewed journal (Circulation. Cardiovascular quality and outcomes) |
| Journal's citation record | 1 / 4 | Circulation Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes: journal h-index 138 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 7 / 12 | A cohort study following people over time |
| Strength of evidence | 3 / 5 | Rated “moderate” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 1 / 5 | 2012 — within 20 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 4 / 4 | 433,123 participants |
| Effect reported | 0 / 3 | No effect size reported — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Studied in people | 3 / 3 | Studied in people (participant count stated) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | 6 / 7 | Cited 568 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 4 / 5 | 35.5 citations a year over 16 year(s) since 2012 |
| Impact for its field and year | 5 / 6 | Cited 28.5× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 2 / 6 | Cited by 3 other studies in this library |
| Still being cited | 3 / 4 | Cited 69 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 3 / 4 | Last-listed author Lesley H. Curtis: h-index 76 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 3 / 3 | University of Washington: institution h-index 3,540 (OpenAlex) |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 2 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 5 institution(s) in 2 countries |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 22235070) |
| Free to read | 0 / 2 | Behind a paywall — scores zero |
| Total | 66 / 100 | — |
What each of these 20 components measures, and what this score is not →
Read the original
- DOI: 10.1161/circoutcomes.111.962688
- PubMed: 22235070
- Original source →
- Free full text: PubMed Central →
Full text: free to read — OpenAlex lists this copy as free to read: the link above (checked 6 Feb 1020).
Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. The record names 8 authors; APA and Vancouver show the first six, BibTeX and the downloads carry all of them. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
APA 7th
Piccini, J. P., Hammill, B. G., Sinner, M. F., Jensen, P. N., Hernandez, A. F., Heckbert, SR., et al. (2012). Incidence and prevalence of atrial fibrillation and associated mortality among Medicare beneficiaries, 1993-2007. Circulation. Cardiovascular quality and outcomes. https://doi.org/10.1161/circoutcomes.111.962688
Vancouver
Piccini JP, Hammill BG, Sinner MF, Jensen PN, Hernandez AF, Heckbert SR, et al. Incidence and prevalence of atrial fibrillation and associated mortality among Medicare beneficiaries, 1993-2007. Circulation. Cardiovascular quality and outcomes. 2012. doi:10.1161/circoutcomes.111.962688. PMID: 22235070.
BibTeX
@article{piccini2012-22235070,
author = {Piccini, J. P. and Hammill, B. G. and Sinner, M. F. and Jensen, P. N. and Hernandez, A. F. and Heckbert, SR. and Benjamin, E. J. and Curtis, L. H.},
title = {{Incidence and prevalence of atrial fibrillation and associated mortality among Medicare beneficiaries, 1993-2007}},
journal = {Circulation. Cardiovascular quality and outcomes},
year = {2012},
doi = {10.1161/circoutcomes.111.962688},
pmid = {22235070},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1161/circoutcomes.111.962688}
}
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