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Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
GBD 2019 Dementia Forecasting Collaborators.. The Lancet. Public health, 2022-01-06
Topic: Risk, prevention and care in population studies
Projected increases in cases could largely be attributed to population growth and population ageing, although their relative importance varied by world region, with population growth contributing most to the increases in sub-Saharan Africa and population ageing contributing most to the increases in east Asia. Interpretation Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform national planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gates Ventures.
Key findings
- Projected increases in cases could largely be attributed to population growth and population ageing, although their relative importance varied by world region, with population growth contributing most to the increases in sub-Saharan Africa and population ageing contributing most to the increases in east Asia.
- Interpretation Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group.
- Country-level estimates can be used to inform national planning efforts and decisions.
- Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia.
- Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gates Ventures.
Why it matters
This Global Burden of Disease analysis estimates how many people had dementia worldwide in 2019 and forecasts the number for 2050. It attributes the projected rise mainly to population growth and population ageing: growth contributed most in sub-Saharan Africa, and ageing contributed most in east Asia. The authors say the country-level estimates can inform national planning, and they call for scaling up interventions on modifiable risk factors alongside research on biological mechanisms. It is a projection of case numbers, not a test of any treatment.
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Study details
- Evidence strengthLow
How this study scored 63/100
Published in a leading specialty journal. Scored zero for study design, sample size, effect reported, studied in people and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 9 / 10 | Tier 2 — leading specialty journal (The Lancet. Public health) |
| Journal's citation record | 2 / 4 | The Lancet Public Health: journal h-index 155 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 0 / 12 | No study design recorded — scores zero, not guessed (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Strength of evidence | 1 / 5 | Rated “low” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 3 / 5 | 2022 — within 6 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 0 / 4 | Participant count not stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Effect reported | 0 / 3 | No effect size reported — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Studied in people | 0 / 3 | Not stated whether this was studied in people — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | 7 / 7 | Cited 5,502 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 5 / 5 | 917.0 citations a year over 6 year(s) since 2022 |
| Impact for its field and year | 6 / 6 | Cited 615.2× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 6 / 6 | Cited by 314 other studies in this library |
| Still being cited | 4 / 4 | Cited 4,127 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 2 / 4 | Last-listed author Amr Hassan: h-index 36 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 3 / 3 | Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation: institution h-index 3,605 (OpenAlex) |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 1 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 2 institution(s) in 1 country |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 34998485) |
| Free to read | 2 / 2 | Free to read |
| Total | 63 / 100 | — |
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Read the original
- DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(21)00249-8
- PubMed: 34998485
- Original source →
- Free full text: The Lancet Public Health →
Full text: free to read — OpenAlex lists this copy as free to read: the link above (checked 6 Feb 1020).
Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
APA 7th
GBD 2019 Dementia Forecasting Collaborators. (2022). Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet. Public health. https://doi.org/10.1016/s2468-2667(21)00249-8
Vancouver
GBD 2019 Dementia Forecasting Collaborators. Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet. Public health. 2022. doi:10.1016/s2468-2667(21)00249-8. PMID: 34998485.
BibTeX
@article{study2022-34998485,
author = {{GBD 2019 Dementia Forecasting Collaborators}},
title = {{Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019}},
journal = {The Lancet. Public health},
year = {2022},
doi = {10.1016/s2468-2667(21)00249-8},
pmid = {34998485},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/s2468-2667(21)00249-8}
}
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