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Bayes analysis supports null hypothesis of anti-amyloid beta therapy in Alzheimer's disease
Richard E, den Brok MGHE, van Gool WA.. Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association, 2021-05-31
Topic: Amyloid, tau and blood-test diagnosis
Numerous clinical trials of anti-amyloid beta (Aβ) immunotherapy in Alzheimer's disease have been performed. None of these have provided convincing evidence for beneficial effects. Using traditional frequentist meta-analysis, the conclusion is that there is absence of evidence for a therapeutic effect, with a point estimate effect size of 0.05 (95% confidence interval -0.00 to 0.10, P = .055). In addition, this non-significant effect equates to 0.4 points per year on the cognitive subscale of the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale. This is well below the minimally clinically important difference. Bayesian meta-analysis of these trial data provides strong evidence of absence of a therapeutic effect, with a Bayes factor of 11.27 in favor of the null hypothesis, opposed to a Bayes factor of 0.09 in favor of a treatment effect. Bayesian analysis is particularly valuable in this context of repeatedly reported small, non-significant effect sizes in individual trials. Mechanisms other than removal of Aβ from the brain may be probed to slow progression of Alzheimer's disease.
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APA 7th
Richard, E., den Brok, M. G. H. E., & van Gool, W. A. (2021). Bayes analysis supports null hypothesis of anti-amyloid beta therapy in Alzheimer's disease. Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association. https://doi.org/10.1002/alz.12379
Vancouver
Richard E, den Brok MGHE, van Gool WA. Bayes analysis supports null hypothesis of anti-amyloid beta therapy in Alzheimer's disease. Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association. 2021. doi:10.1002/alz.12379. PMID: 34057297.
BibTeX
@article{richard2021-34057297,
author = {Richard, E. and den Brok, M. G. H. E. and van Gool, W. A.},
title = {{Bayes analysis supports null hypothesis of anti-amyloid beta therapy in Alzheimer's disease}},
journal = {Alzheimer's \& dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association},
year = {2021},
doi = {10.1002/alz.12379},
pmid = {34057297},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/alz.12379}
}
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Key findings
- In addition, this non-significant effect equates to 0.4 points per year on the cognitive subscale of the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale.
- Bayesian analysis is particularly valuable in this context of repeatedly reported small, non-significant effect sizes in individual trials.
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Study details
- Study designmeta-analysis
- Evidence strengthHigh
How this study scored 74/100
Published in a leading specialty journal, and it is a meta-analysis pooling many studies. Scored zero for sample size, effect reported and studied in people because the record does not state it. We have no data on journal's citation record, times cited, citations per year, impact for its field and year, cited by studies here, still being cited, senior author's track record, institution's track record and multicenter collaboration, so those were left out: it earned 43 of the 58 points we could judge it on, which is 74 out of 100.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 9 / 10 | Tier 2 — leading specialty journal (Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association) |
| Journal's citation record | — / 4 | No journal record from OpenAlex — left out of this score |
| Study design | 12 / 12 | A meta-analysis pooling many studies |
| Strength of evidence | 5 / 5 | Rated “high” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 3 / 5 | 2021 — within 6 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 0 / 4 | Participant count not stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Effect reported | 0 / 3 | No effect size reported — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Studied in people | 0 / 3 | Not stated whether this was studied in people — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Randomized / blinded | 0 / 2 | A review of other studies — randomization is not credited here |
| Times cited | — / 7 | No citation count (not found in OpenAlex) — left out of this score |
| Citations per year | — / 5 | No citation count or no year — left out of this score |
| Impact for its field and year | — / 6 | No field-weighted citation impact (OpenAlex has none yet) — left out of this score |
| Cited by studies here | — / 6 | Not yet checked against this library's citation graph — left out of this score |
| Still being cited | — / 4 | No yearly citation counts — left out of this score |
| Senior author's track record | — / 4 | Senior author's record not available — left out of this score |
| Institution's track record | — / 3 | No institution listed in OpenAlex — left out of this score |
| Multicenter collaboration | — / 3 | Institutions not listed — left out of this score |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 34057297) |
| Free to read | 2 / 2 | Free to read |
| Points | 43 / 58 | Scored on 11 of 20 parts. We have no data for the rest, so they are left out: 43 of the 58 points we could judge it on is 74 out of 100. |
| Total | 74 / 100 | — |
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