Multicenter assessment of CSF-phosphorylated tau for the prediction of conversion of MCI
Ewers M, Buerger K, Teipel SJ, Scheltens P, Schröder J, Zinkowski RP, Bouwman FH, Schönknecht P et al.. Neurology, 2007-12-01
Topic: Brain proteins, microglia and lab models
Background The measurement of hyperphosphorylated tau (p-tau) in CSF has been proposed as a biomarker candidate for the prediction of Alzheimer disease (AD) in patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). However, a standard quantitative criterion of p-tau has not been evaluated. Objective To assess in a multicenter study the predictive accuracy of an a priori defined criterion of tau phosphorylated at threonine 231 (p-tau(231)) for the prediction of conversion from MCI to AD during a short-term observation interval. Methods The study included 43 MCI converters, 45 stable MCI (average follow-up interval = 1.5 years), and 57 healthy controls (at baseline only). Subjects were recruited at four international expert sites in a retrospective study design. Cox regression models stratified according to center were used to predict conversion status. Bootstrapped 95% CIs of classification accuracy were computed. Results Levels of p-tau(231) were a significant predictor of conversion (B = 0.026, p = 0.001), independent of age, gender, Mini-Mental State Examination, and ApoE genotype. For an a priori-defined cutoff point (27.32 pg/mL), sensitivity ranged between 66.7 and 100% and specificity between 66.7 and 77.8% among centers. The bootstrapped mean percentage of correctly classified cases was 79.95% (95% CI = 79.9 to 80.00%). Post hoc defined cutoff values yielded a mean bootstrapped classification accuracy of 80.45% (95% CI = 80.24 to 80.76%). Conclusions An a priori defined cutoff value of p-tau(231) yields relatively stable results across centers, suggesting a good feasibility of a standard criterion of p-tau(231) for the prediction of Alzheimer disease.
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APA 7th
Ewers, M., Buerger, K., Teipel, S. J., Scheltens, P., Schröder, J., Zinkowski, R. P., et al. (2007). Multicenter assessment of CSF-phosphorylated tau for the prediction of conversion of MCI. Neurology. https://doi.org/10.1212/01.wnl.0000286944.22262.ff
Vancouver
Ewers M, Buerger K, Teipel SJ, Scheltens P, Schröder J, Zinkowski RP, et al. Multicenter assessment of CSF-phosphorylated tau for the prediction of conversion of MCI. Neurology. 2007. doi:10.1212/01.wnl.0000286944.22262.ff. PMID: 18071141.
BibTeX
@article{ewers2007-18071141,
author = {Ewers, M. and Buerger, K. and Teipel, S. J. and Scheltens, P. and Schröder, J. and Zinkowski, R. P. and Bouwman, F. H. and Schönknecht, P. and others},
title = {{Multicenter assessment of CSF-phosphorylated tau for the prediction of conversion of MCI}},
journal = {Neurology},
year = {2007},
doi = {10.1212/01.wnl.0000286944.22262.ff},
pmid = {18071141},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1212/01.wnl.0000286944.22262.ff}
}
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Key findings
- Results Levels of p-tau(231) were a significant predictor of conversion (B = 0.026, p = 0.001), independent of age, gender, Mini-Mental State Examination, and ApoE genotype.
- Conclusions An a priori defined cutoff value of p-tau(231) yields relatively stable results across centers, suggesting a good feasibility of a standard criterion of p-tau(231) for the prediction of Alzheimer disease.
Why it matters
In a multicenter study of people with mild cognitive impairment, levels of a specific form of tau in spinal fluid predicted who would go on to develop Alzheimer's disease, independent of age, gender, mental test scores and APOE genotype. An a priori cutoff value worked fairly consistently across centers, suggesting it could be a feasible standard criterion for predicting Alzheimer's disease.
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Study details
- Participants43
- Effect size77.8%; 79.95%; 80.00%
- Evidence strengthLow
How this study scored 55/100
Published in a leading specialty journal. Scored zero for study design and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 9 / 10 | Tier 2 — leading specialty journal (Neurology) |
| Journal's citation record | 4 / 4 | Neurology: journal h-index 525 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 0 / 12 | No study design recorded — scores zero, not guessed (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Strength of evidence | 1 / 5 | Rated “low” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 1 / 5 | 2007 — within 20 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 1 / 4 | 43 participants |
| Effect reported | 2 / 3 | Effect reported as a number, without an interval or test |
| Studied in people | 3 / 3 | Studied in people (participant count stated) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | 5 / 7 | Cited 146 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 2 / 5 | 7.0 citations a year over 21 year(s) since 2007 |
| Impact for its field and year | 4 / 6 | Cited 8.9× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 3 / 6 | Cited by 23 other studies in this library |
| Still being cited | 1 / 4 | Cited 6 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 4 / 4 | Last-listed author Harald Juergen Hampel: h-index 136 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 1 / 3 | Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München: institution h-index 1,224 (OpenAlex) |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 2 / 3 | PubMed indexes it as a multicentre study |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 18071141) |
| Free to read | 0 / 2 | Behind a paywall — scores zero |
| Total | 55 / 100 | — |
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