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Mapping U.S. POINTER Cognitive-Slope Gains Onto Predicted Clinical Progression: An External-Cohort Translation Analysis With Exploratory Economic Thresholds
Nakashima S, Sato K, Niimi Y, Satake W, Iwatsubo T, Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative.. medRxiv, 2026-05-20
Topic: Brain imaging, connectivity and assessment
POINTER reported a modest structured-versus-self-guided difference in the annual rate of global cognitive change. We evaluated a counterfactual +0.029 SD/year improvement in cohort-specific mPACC slope, corresponding to the structured-versus-self-guided cognitive-slope difference reported in U.S. Results Landmark analyses yielded small translated effects. POINTER–referenced structured-versus-self-guided cognitive-slope increment translated into directionally consistent reductions in predicted progression risk across ADNI, A4, and LEARN. Exploratory economic-threshold results suggested more favorable margins in higher-risk ADNI subgroups under low incremental-cost and high willingness-to-pay assumptions, but these findings should be interpreted as hypothesis-generating translation estimates rather than empirical cost-effectiveness evidence.
Key findings
- POINTER reported a modest structured-versus-self-guided difference in the annual rate of global cognitive change.
- We evaluated a counterfactual +0.029 SD/year improvement in cohort-specific mPACC slope, corresponding to the structured-versus-self-guided cognitive-slope difference reported in U.S.
- Results Landmark analyses yielded small translated effects.
- POINTER–referenced structured-versus-self-guided cognitive-slope increment translated into directionally consistent reductions in predicted progression risk across ADNI, A4, and LEARN.
- Exploratory economic-threshold results suggested more favorable margins in higher-risk ADNI subgroups under low incremental-cost and high willingness-to-pay assumptions, but these findings should be interpreted as hypothesis-generating translation estimates rather than empirical cost-effectiveness evidence.
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Study details
- Study designlongitudinal study
- Participants399
- Effect sizeHR 0.775
- Evidence strengthHigh
How this study scored 16/100
Preprint — not yet peer-reviewed. It scored 52 on the same rubric, but non-peer-reviewed sources are capped at 16, so it shows as 16. Scored zero for randomised / blinded because the record does not state it. We have no data on times cited, citations per year, impact for its field and year, cited by studies here, still being cited, senior author's track record, institution's track record and multi-centre collaboration, so those were left out: it earned 32 of the 62 points we could judge it on, which is 52 out of 100.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 2 / 10 | Tier 4 — not a peer-reviewed journal (medRxiv) |
| Journal's citation record | 0 / 4 | Not a journal article, so the journal's record does not count |
| Study design | 7 / 12 | A longitudinal study following the same people over time |
| Strength of evidence | 5 / 5 | Rated “high” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 4 / 10 | Preprint — not yet peer-reviewed. Hosted on a preprint server. |
| How recent | 5 / 5 | 2026 — within 1 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 2 / 4 | 399 participants |
| Effect reported | 3 / 3 | Effect reported with a statistic (interval, p-value, ratio or similar) |
| Studied in people | 3 / 3 | Studied in people (participant count stated) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | — / 7 | No citation count (not found in OpenAlex) — left out of this score |
| Citations per year | — / 5 | No citation count or no year — left out of this score |
| Impact for its field and year | — / 6 | No field-weighted citation impact (OpenAlex has none yet) — left out of this score |
| Cited by studies here | — / 6 | Not yet checked against this library's citation graph — left out of this score |
| Still being cited | — / 4 | No yearly citation counts — left out of this score |
| Senior author's track record | — / 4 | Senior author's record not available — left out of this score |
| Institution's track record | — / 3 | No institution listed in OpenAlex — left out of this score |
| Multi-centre collaboration | — / 3 | Institutions not listed — left out of this score |
| Indexed in PubMed | 1 / 2 | Not in PubMed, but has a DOI |
| Free to read | 0 / 2 | Behind a paywall — scores zero |
| Points | 32 / 62 | Scored on 12 of 20 parts. We have no data for the rest, so they are left out: 32 of the 62 points we could judge it on is 52 out of 100. |
| Total | 52 / 100 | Capped to 16 because this is not a peer-reviewed article. |
What each of these 20 components measures, and what this score is not →
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Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
APA 7th
Nakashima, S., Sato, K., Niimi, Y., Satake, W., Iwatsubo, T., & Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. (2026). Mapping U.S. POINTER Cognitive-Slope Gains Onto Predicted Clinical Progression: An External-Cohort Translation Analysis With Exploratory Economic Thresholds. medRxiv. https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.05.17.26353395
Vancouver
Nakashima S, Sato K, Niimi Y, Satake W, Iwatsubo T, Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. Mapping U.S. POINTER Cognitive-Slope Gains Onto Predicted Clinical Progression: An External-Cohort Translation Analysis With Exploratory Economic Thresholds. medRxiv. 2026. doi:10.64898/2026.05.17.26353395.
BibTeX
@article{nakashima2026-95afaa90,
author = {Nakashima, S. and Sato, K. and Niimi, Y. and Satake, W. and Iwatsubo, T. and {Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative}},
title = {{Mapping U.S. POINTER Cognitive-Slope Gains Onto Predicted Clinical Progression: An External-Cohort Translation Analysis With Exploratory Economic Thresholds}},
journal = {medRxiv},
year = {2026},
doi = {10.64898/2026.05.17.26353395},
url = {https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.05.17.26353395}
}
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