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Global and regional projections of the economic burden of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias from 2019 to 2050: A value of statistical life approach
Nandi A, Counts N, Chen S, Seligman B, Tortorice D, Vigo D, Bloom DE.. EClinicalMedicine, 2022-07-22
Topic: Health services, long-term care and technology
Background The burden of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRDs) is expected to grow rapidly with population aging, especially in low- and middle-income countries, in the next few decades. We used a willingness-to-pay approach to project the global, regional, and national economic burden of ADRDs from 2019 to 2050 under status quo. Methods We projected age group and country-specific disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost to ADRDs in future years based on historical growth in disease burden and available population projections. We used country-specific extrapolations of the value of a statistical life (VSL) year and its future projections based on historical income growth to estimate the economic burden - measured in terms of the value of lost DALYs - of ADRDs. A probabilistic uncertainty analysis was used to calculate point estimates and 95% uncertainty bounds of the economic burden. Findings In 2019, the global VSL-based economic burden of ADRDs was an estimated $2.8 trillion. The burden was projected to increase to $4.7 trillion (95% uncertainty bound: $4 trillion-$5.5 trillion) in 2030, $8.5 trillion ($6.8 trillion-$10.8 trillion) in 2040, and $16.9 trillion ($11.3 trillion-$27.3 trillion) in 2050. Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) would account for 65% of the global VSL-based economic burden in 2050, as compared with only 18% in 2019. Within LMICs, upper-middle income countries would carry the largest VSL-based economic burden by 2050 (92% of LMICs burden and 60% of global burden). Interpretation ADRDs have a large and inequitable projected future VSL-based economic burden. Funding The Davos Alzheimer's Collaborative.
Key findings
- Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) would account for 65% of the global VSL-based economic burden in 2050, as compared with only 18% in 2019.
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Study details
- Evidence strengthLow
How this study scored 43/100
Published in a peer-reviewed journal. Scored zero for study design, sample size, effect reported, studied in people and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it. We have no data on journal's citation record, times cited, citations per year, impact for its field and year, cited by studies here, still being cited, senior author's track record, institution's track record and multi-centre collaboration, so those were left out: it earned 25 of the 58 points we could judge it on, which is 43 out of 100.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 7 / 10 | Tier 3 — peer-reviewed journal (EClinicalMedicine) |
| Journal's citation record | — / 4 | No journal record from OpenAlex — left out of this score |
| Study design | 0 / 12 | No study design recorded — scores zero, not guessed (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Strength of evidence | 1 / 5 | Rated “low” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 3 / 5 | 2022 — within 6 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 0 / 4 | Participant count not stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Effect reported | 0 / 3 | No effect size reported — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Studied in people | 0 / 3 | Not stated whether this was studied in people — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | — / 7 | No citation count (not found in OpenAlex) — left out of this score |
| Citations per year | — / 5 | No citation count or no year — left out of this score |
| Impact for its field and year | — / 6 | No field-weighted citation impact (OpenAlex has none yet) — left out of this score |
| Cited by studies here | — / 6 | Not yet checked against this library's citation graph — left out of this score |
| Still being cited | — / 4 | No yearly citation counts — left out of this score |
| Senior author's track record | — / 4 | Senior author's record not available — left out of this score |
| Institution's track record | — / 3 | No institution listed in OpenAlex — left out of this score |
| Multi-centre collaboration | — / 3 | Institutions not listed — left out of this score |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 35898316) |
| Free to read | 2 / 2 | Free to read |
| Points | 25 / 58 | Scored on 11 of 20 parts. We have no data for the rest, so they are left out: 25 of the 58 points we could judge it on is 43 out of 100. |
| Total | 43 / 100 | — |
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Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. The record names 7 authors; APA and Vancouver show the first six, BibTeX and the downloads carry all of them. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
APA 7th
Nandi, A., Counts, N., Chen, S., Seligman, B., Tortorice, D., Vigo, D., et al. (2022). Global and regional projections of the economic burden of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias from 2019 to 2050: A value of statistical life approach. EClinicalMedicine. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eclinm.2022.101580
Vancouver
Nandi A, Counts N, Chen S, Seligman B, Tortorice D, Vigo D, et al. Global and regional projections of the economic burden of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias from 2019 to 2050: A value of statistical life approach. EClinicalMedicine. 2022. doi:10.1016/j.eclinm.2022.101580. PMID: 35898316.
BibTeX
@article{nandi2022-35898316,
author = {Nandi, A. and Counts, N. and Chen, S. and Seligman, B. and Tortorice, D. and Vigo, D. and Bloom, D. E.},
title = {{Global and regional projections of the economic burden of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias from 2019 to 2050: A value of statistical life approach}},
journal = {EClinicalMedicine},
year = {2022},
doi = {10.1016/j.eclinm.2022.101580},
pmid = {35898316},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eclinm.2022.101580}
}
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