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Dynamic trends, spatial clustering, and multi-model projections of the global burden of Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias: an analysis of GBD 1990–2021 data to 2050
Fangfang Xiang, Xiaorui Liu, Gang Chen. Frontiers in Aging Neuroscience, 2026-01-30
Topic: Amyloid, tau and blood-test diagnosis
From 1990 to 2021, global ADOD burden increased markedly in absolute terms. EAPC analysis revealed accelerated annual growth (>1%) in East Asia and Eastern Europe, surpassing the global average. Spatial clustering identified four distinct geographic archetypes, with rapid-growth clusters spanning middle-income regions in Latin America and Southeast Asia. Women and adults aged ≥80 years, especially those ≥95, bore a disproportionately high and increasing burden. Both ES and ARIMA models projected a continued rise in absolute burden to 2050, forecasting a near-doubling of the disease burden (DALYs) among women. The global ADOD burden is escalating with pronounced dynamic heterogeneity in growth velocity and distinct spatial patterns. Our multi-model projections warn of a mounting crisis, disproportionately impacting women, the oldest-old, and rapidly aging middle-income regions. Public health strategies must evolve from static assessments to dynamic surveillance and geographically tailored interventions, with urgent investment in prevention and care systems in high-growth clusters.
Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
APA 7th
Xiang, F., Liu, X., & Chen, G. (2026). Dynamic trends, spatial clustering, and multi-model projections of the global burden of Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias: an analysis of GBD 1990–2021 data to 2050. Frontiers in Aging Neuroscience. https://doi.org/10.3389/fnagi.2026.1661370
Vancouver
Xiang F, Liu X, Chen G. Dynamic trends, spatial clustering, and multi-model projections of the global burden of Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias: an analysis of GBD 1990–2021 data to 2050. Frontiers in Aging Neuroscience. 2026. doi:10.3389/fnagi.2026.1661370. PMID: 41695272.
BibTeX
@article{xiang2026-41695272,
author = {Xiang, Fangfang and Liu, Xiaorui and Chen, Gang},
title = {{Dynamic trends, spatial clustering, and multi-model projections of the global burden of Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias: an analysis of GBD 1990–2021 data to 2050}},
journal = {Frontiers in Aging Neuroscience},
year = {2026},
doi = {10.3389/fnagi.2026.1661370},
pmid = {41695272},
url = {https://doi.org/10.3389/fnagi.2026.1661370}
}
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
Key findings
- From 1990 to 2021, global ADOD burden increased markedly in absolute terms.
- EAPC analysis revealed accelerated annual growth (>1%) in East Asia and Eastern Europe, surpassing the global average.
- Spatial clustering identified four distinct geographic archetypes, with rapid-growth clusters spanning middle-income regions in Latin America and Southeast Asia.
- Women and adults aged ≥80 years, especially those ≥95, bore a disproportionately high and increasing burden.
- Both ES and ARIMA models projected a continued rise in absolute burden to 2050, forecasting a near-doubling of the disease burden (DALYs) among women.
Why it matters
This analysis of global data found that the burden of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias rose from 1990 to 2021 and is projected to keep rising to 2050, with the heaviest burden on women, the oldest-old, and rapidly aging middle-income regions. It calls for prevention and care investment but does not test any treatment.
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Study details
- Evidence strengthLow
How this study scored 40/100
Published in a peer-reviewed journal. Scored zero for study design, sample size, effect reported, studied in people and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it. We have no data on senior author's track record, so that was left out: it earned 38 of the 96 points we could judge it on, which is 40 out of 100.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 7 / 10 | Tier 3 — peer-reviewed journal (Frontiers in Aging Neuroscience) |
| Journal's citation record | 2 / 4 | Frontiers in Aging Neuroscience: journal h-index 174 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 0 / 12 | No study design recorded — scores zero, not guessed (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Strength of evidence | 1 / 5 | Rated “low” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 5 / 5 | 2026 — within 1 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 0 / 4 | Participant count not stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Effect reported | 0 / 3 | No effect size reported — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Studied in people | 0 / 3 | Not stated whether this was studied in people — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | 1 / 7 | Cited 4 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 1 / 5 | 2.0 citations a year over 2 year(s) since 2026 |
| Impact for its field and year | 4 / 6 | Cited 19.0× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 0 / 6 | No other study in this library cites it |
| Still being cited | 1 / 4 | Cited 4 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | — / 4 | OpenAlex's profile for last-listed author Gang Chen holds only 1 work(s), too few to judge a track record — left out of this score |
| Institution's track record | 1 / 3 | Zhejiang University: institution h-index 1,040 (OpenAlex) |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 1 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 2 institution(s) in 1 country |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 41695272) |
| Free to read | 2 / 2 | Free to read |
| Points | 38 / 96 | Scored on 19 of 20 parts. We have no data for the rest, so they are left out: 38 of the 96 points we could judge it on is 40 out of 100. |
| Total | 40 / 100 | — |
What each of these 20 components measures, and what this score is not →
Read the original
- DOI: 10.3389/fnagi.2026.1661370
- PubMed: 41695272
- Original source →
- Free full text: Frontiers in Aging Neuroscience →
Full text: free to read — OpenAlex lists this copy as free to read: the link above (checked 6 Feb 1020).
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