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Drivers with dementia: Forecasting the future
Mark Jeffrey Rapoport, Patrick Byrne, Kim Pho, Gary Naglie. Journal of Alzheimer s Disease, 2025-06-04
Topic: Risk, prevention and care in population studies
BackgroundA decline in driving skills is well documented in people with dementia.ObjectiveTo provide a current estimate and future forecast of drivers with dementia in Ontario, Canada, taking into account sex differences and longitudinal estimates of driving cessation in dementia.MethodsWe used historical provincial licensing data, population estimates and projections, as well as estimates of diagnosable dementia from the Landmark study of the Alzheimer's Society of Canada to create current estimates and forecasts of drivers with dementia in the province of Ontario, the most populous province of Canada, from 2024 to 2046. Sensitivity analyses were used to determine the impact of sex and assumptions regarding the rate of driving cessation.ResultsAssuming that an estimated 35% of people with diagnosable dementia stop driving very shortly after symptom onset followed by a more gradual decline over time, and that females stop driving twice as fast as men, we forecast approximately 154,000 drivers with dementia in the province of Ontario in 2046.ConclusionsAs dementia prevalence increases, our study provides a novel set of projections for drivers with dementia over the coming two decades, estimating a 221% to 226% increase. This work adds to the myriad of concerns about health and public services that will be needed to treat and support this population effectively, to detect early signs of dangerous driving among the cognitively impaired, and to provide alternative transportation options, once driving is no longer viable.
Key findings
- BackgroundA decline in driving skills is well documented in people with dementia.ObjectiveTo provide a current estimate and future forecast of drivers with dementia in Ontario, Canada, taking into account sex differences and longitudinal estimates of driving cessation in dementia.MethodsWe used historical provincial licensing data, population estimates and projections, as well as estimates of diagnosable dementia from the Landmark study of the Alzheimer's Society of Canada to create current estimates and forecasts of drivers with dementia in the province of Ontario, the most populous province of Canada, from 2024 to 2046.
- Sensitivity analyses were used to determine the impact of sex and assumptions regarding the rate of driving cessation.ResultsAssuming that an estimated 35% of people with diagnosable dementia stop driving very shortly after symptom onset followed by a more gradual decline over time, and that females stop driving twice as fast as men, we forecast approximately 154,000 drivers with dementia in the province of Ontario in 2046.ConclusionsAs dementia prevalence increases, our study provides a novel set of projections for drivers with dementia over the coming two decades, estimating a 221% to 226% increase.
- This work adds to the myriad of concerns about health and public services that will be needed to treat and support this population effectively, to detect early signs of dangerous driving among the cognitively impaired, and to provide alternative transportation options, once driving is no longer viable.
Why it matters
This forecasting study estimates that drivers with dementia in Ontario, Canada will rise substantially by 2046, projecting a 221% to 226% increase. It is about planning for driving and public services, not about treating, curing or preventing Alzheimer's disease.
Study details
- Study designlongitudinal study
- Evidence strengthModerate
How this study scored 47/100
Published in a peer-reviewed journal, and it is a longitudinal study following the same people over time. Scored zero for sample size, effect reported, studied in people and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 7 / 10 | Tier 3 — peer-reviewed journal (Journal of Alzheimer s Disease) |
| Journal's citation record | 2 / 4 | Journal of Alzheimer s Disease: journal h-index 218 (OpenAlex, 2026-10-29) |
| Study design | 7 / 12 | A longitudinal study following the same people over time |
| Strength of evidence | 3 / 5 | Rated “moderate” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 10 / 10 | Peer-reviewed. Published as an article in a named peer-reviewed journal. |
| How recent | 4 / 5 | 2025 — within 3 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 0 / 4 | Participant count not stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Effect reported | 0 / 3 | No effect size reported — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Studied in people | 0 / 3 | Not stated whether this was studied in people — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | 1 / 7 | Cited 1 times (OpenAlex, 2026-10-10) |
| Citations per year | 0 / 5 | 0.3 citations a year over 3 year(s) since 2025 |
| Impact for its field and year | 2 / 6 | Cited 2.2× the average for papers of its field and year (OpenAlex FWCI) |
| Cited by studies here | 0 / 6 | No other study in this library cites it |
| Still being cited | 0 / 4 | Cited 1 times in 2024–2026 (2026 still in progress; OpenAlex) |
| Senior author's track record | 3 / 4 | Last-listed author Gary Naglie: h-index 63 (OpenAlex, whole career) |
| Institution's track record | 2 / 3 | University of Toronto: institution h-index 1,923 (OpenAlex) |
| Multi-centre collaboration | 2 / 3 | OpenAlex lists 5 institution(s) in 1 country |
| Indexed in PubMed | 2 / 2 | Indexed in PubMed (PMID 40462620) |
| Free to read | 2 / 2 | Free to read |
| Total | 47 / 100 | — |
What each of these 20 components measures, and what this score is not →
Read the original
- DOI: 10.1177/13872877251344873
- PubMed: 40462620
- Original source →
- Free full text: Journal of Alzheimer s Disease →
Full text: free to read — OpenAlex lists this copy as free to read: the link above (checked 6 Feb 1020).
Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
APA 7th
Rapoport, M. J., Byrne, P., Pho, K., & Naglie, G. (2025). Drivers with dementia: Forecasting the future. Journal of Alzheimer s Disease. https://doi.org/10.1177/13872877251344873
Vancouver
Rapoport MJ, Byrne P, Pho K, Naglie G. Drivers with dementia: Forecasting the future. Journal of Alzheimer s Disease. 2025. doi:10.1177/13872877251344873. PMID: 40462620.
BibTeX
@article{rapoport2025-40462620,
author = {Rapoport, Mark Jeffrey and Byrne, Patrick and Pho, Kim and Naglie, Gary},
title = {{Drivers with dementia: Forecasting the future}},
journal = {Journal of Alzheimer s Disease},
year = {2025},
doi = {10.1177/13872877251344873},
pmid = {40462620},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/13872877251344873}
}
Studies this one cites
Referenced by this study and also in the alzhub library, so you can read them here.