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Accelerometry-Measured Physical Activity Predicts Dementia Onset in a National Cohort of Older Adults
Ko M, Huang CS, Brown K, Vintch K, Shutes-David A, Wilson K, Seto E, Tsuang DW.. medRxiv, 2025-12-09
Topic: Brain imaging, connectivity and assessment
Identifying scalable, objective markers of dementia risk is essential for early prevention and intervention. Physical activity is a key modifiable risk factor, yet evidence from device-based measures in representative populations remains limited. Using nationally representative data from the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS), we examined whether wrist-worn accelerometry predicts incident dementia in a cohort of 562 participants aged ≥ 65 years without dementia at baseline. Over one year of follow-up, higher physical activity levels were associated with lower risk of incident dementia (OR = 0.66, 95% CI [0.55 - 0.79]), even after adjusting for age, gender, and comorbidities (OR = 0.68, 95% CI [0.57 - 0.82]). Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analyses indicate that accelerometry modestly outperforms self-reported physical capacity in predicting dementia onset. These findings support the use of wearable-derived activity metrics as a potential digital biomarker for dementia risk stratification in population and clinical settings.
Key findings
- Over one year of follow-up, higher physical activity levels were associated with lower risk of incident dementia (OR = 0.66, 95% CI [0.55 - 0.79]), even after adjusting for age, gender, and comorbidities (OR = 0.68, 95% CI [0.57 - 0.82]).
- Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analyses indicate that accelerometry modestly outperforms self-reported physical capacity in predicting dementia onset.
- These findings support the use of wearable-derived activity metrics as a potential digital biomarker for dementia risk stratification in population and clinical settings.
Study details
- Participants562
- Effect sizeOR = 0.66; OR = 0.68
- Evidence strengthModerate
How this study scored 16/100
Preprint — not yet peer-reviewed. It scored 35 on the same rubric, but non-peer-reviewed sources are capped at 16, so it shows as 16. Scored zero for study design and randomised / blinded because the record does not state it. We have no data on times cited, citations per year, impact for its field and year, cited by studies here, still being cited, senior author's track record, institution's track record and multi-centre collaboration, so those were left out: it earned 22 of the 62 points we could judge it on, which is 35 out of 100.
| Component | Points | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Journal tier | 2 / 10 | Tier 4 — not a peer-reviewed journal (medRxiv) |
| Journal's citation record | 0 / 4 | Not a journal article, so the journal's record does not count |
| Study design | 0 / 12 | No study design recorded — scores zero, not guessed (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Strength of evidence | 3 / 5 | Rated “moderate” in our summary |
| Peer-review validation | 4 / 10 | Preprint — not yet peer-reviewed. Hosted on a preprint server. |
| How recent | 4 / 5 | 2025 — within 3 year(s) of the newest study here |
| Sample size | 2 / 4 | 562 participants |
| Effect reported | 3 / 3 | Effect reported with a statistic (interval, p-value, ratio or similar) |
| Studied in people | 3 / 3 | Studied in people (participant count stated) |
| Randomised / blinded | 0 / 2 | No randomisation or blinding stated — scores zero (not stated in the record — scored 0) |
| Times cited | — / 7 | No citation count (not found in OpenAlex) — left out of this score |
| Citations per year | — / 5 | No citation count or no year — left out of this score |
| Impact for its field and year | — / 6 | No field-weighted citation impact (OpenAlex has none yet) — left out of this score |
| Cited by studies here | — / 6 | Not yet checked against this library's citation graph — left out of this score |
| Still being cited | — / 4 | No yearly citation counts — left out of this score |
| Senior author's track record | — / 4 | Senior author's record not available — left out of this score |
| Institution's track record | — / 3 | No institution listed in OpenAlex — left out of this score |
| Multi-centre collaboration | — / 3 | Institutions not listed — left out of this score |
| Indexed in PubMed | 1 / 2 | Not in PubMed, but has a DOI |
| Free to read | 0 / 2 | Behind a paywall — scores zero |
| Points | 22 / 62 | Scored on 12 of 20 parts. We have no data for the rest, so they are left out: 22 of the 62 points we could judge it on is 35 out of 100. |
| Total | 35 / 100 | Capped to 16 because this is not a peer-reviewed article. |
What each of these 20 components measures, and what this score is not →
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Cite this study APA, Vancouver, BibTeX · download .bib or .ris
Built from the record alzhub holds for this paper, not looked up. Volume, issue and page numbers are not held in the record. The record names 8 authors; APA and Vancouver show the first six, BibTeX and the downloads carry all of them. Check the citation against the original before you use it.
APA 7th
Ko, M., Huang, C. S., Brown, K., Vintch, K., Shutes-David, A., Wilson, K., et al. (2025). Accelerometry-Measured Physical Activity Predicts Dementia Onset in a National Cohort of Older Adults. medRxiv. https://doi.org/10.64898/2025.12.08.25341850
Vancouver
Ko M, Huang CS, Brown K, Vintch K, Shutes-David A, Wilson K, et al. Accelerometry-Measured Physical Activity Predicts Dementia Onset in a National Cohort of Older Adults. medRxiv. 2025. doi:10.64898/2025.12.08.25341850.
BibTeX
@article{ko2025-a06f6d20,
author = {Ko, M. and Huang, C. S. and Brown, K. and Vintch, K. and Shutes-David, A. and Wilson, K. and Seto, E. and Tsuang, D. W.},
title = {{Accelerometry-Measured Physical Activity Predicts Dementia Onset in a National Cohort of Older Adults}},
journal = {medRxiv},
year = {2025},
doi = {10.64898/2025.12.08.25341850},
url = {https://doi.org/10.64898/2025.12.08.25341850}
}
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